Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 230800
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
400 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over southern
Alberta with a trough in New England and a 500 mb ridge across the
sern U.S. There is also a shortwave in the western high plains that
will head northeast into the lower Missouri river valley tonight and
into the upper Great Lakes late tonight.

Lift associated with the LLJ which kicked off some showers and
thunderstorms overnight will continue to weaken this morning and the
convection will end. Next wave moves in late tonight with some weak
850-500 mb q-vector convergence and deeper moisture and have some
low chance pops late across the west half of the cwa. Otherwise,
fairly quiet for today into tonight. Made very few changes to going
forecast for temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 434 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

Upper trough over the northern plains slowly crosses the Upper Great
Lakes late this week. At the sfc, low pressure crossing the Northern
Plains on Tue aftn will shift a warm front across the Upper Great
Lakes Tue night into Wed. Though the U.P. will be in the warm sector
on Wed, lowered temps to the low-mid 70s as consensus is increasing
that lead shortwave slides across WI and Upper Michigan spreading
area of clouds and showers from southwest to northeast. Dprog/dt of
models indicates trend toward keeping majority of rain over central
and eastern cwa on Wed so nudged forecast in that direction with
likely pops south central and east. Southwest winds ahead of the sfc
low could stay strong/gusty Tue night into Wed, especially from
northern Lk Michigan across the eastern cwa and over the eastern
portions of Lk Superior. Gusts to 30 mph are likely.

Some chance of tsra as the showers move across per SI/s that are
slightly negative as fairly compact low-level system crosses the
area. No severe storms are anticipated. Once the shortwave crosses
subsidence behind the wave should keep conditions mostly dry Wed
night. Secondary cold front bringing in H85 temps down to 6-7C moves
in for Thu. Just a small chance of showers as the next push of
cooler air arrives. Soundings indicate dry airmass so that should
limit extent of showers. A breezy day is expected on the Keweenaw and
near Lk Superior as winds shift to the west at 20-30 mph. Lighter
winds on Fri as pressure gradient weakens. Daytime temps Thu and
Fri within the trough aloft should be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Rest of forecast will be influenced by high building across late in
the week which could bring cooler nights inland Thu Night and Fri
night. As the high moves east, return flow kicks in for the weekend.
Sat should be mostly dry but rain chances return into Sun. Seems to
be better chance of thunder as ml and elevated mucapes climb toward
1000j/kg.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 117 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Shra/tsra that have been affecting KSAW during the evening have
shifted e of the terminal with no new development expected
overnight. As a result, VFR conditions are expected thru this fcst
period at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. Low-level jet over the area will result in
LLWS at all terminals for the remainder of the night. Winds will
become gusty today, especially at KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 400 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

South to southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots are expected through much
of Wednesday as a low pressure trough over the Plains tracks toward
the Upper Great Lakes while high pressure exits to the east.
The trough will cross Lake Superior Wednesday afternoon and evening,
then usher in west winds of 15 to 25 knots Wednesday night and
Thursday. High pressure will then bring NW to SW winds less than 20
knots through Saturday. No gales seen anytime soon.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...07



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