Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 190758
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
258 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 341 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2018

Considerable dry air was in place this morning across much of the
U.P. although with the approaching system to the west profiles began
to moisten aloft and lower ceilings by midday. Several locations are
still being stubborn to saturate which is having an impact on the
ongoing snowfall across the western U.P. and Kewennaw Peninsula.
Radar returns indicate another slug of steadier snow lifting
northeast this afternoon across the Keweenaw Peninsula, with
guidance indicating good lift within the dendritic growth zone. This
should help increase the snowfall totals closer to the current
advisory conditions through this evening to around 3-5 inches and
locally higher totals. Otherwise the focus then turns towards the
overnight into Monday periods.

Tonight the omega field decreases substantially acrosss the U.P.
which raises concerns with p-type. Model soundings indicate some dry
air lingering throughout the DGZ, with considerable moisture
becoming shallow or within the 0-1km layer. Winds will generally be
from the northeast/north, but with a lack of lift to grow moist
parcels to dendrites, expect freezing drizzle to develop across the
central/east U.P. The abundance of liquid doesn`t get too high until
later in the day Mon. Surface temps are progged to linger in the
mid/upr teens across the western U.P. with slightly warmer temps
further east where better warm air advection will occur.

Mon aftn/eve, there appears to be a brief lull between freezing
rain/drizzle events as drier air does try to work into the lower
levels based on latest forecast guidance. Winds will continue to be
northerly, then deeper moisture will begin to arrive aloft late Mon
ngt.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM EST MON FEB 19 2018

500 mb trough in the Rockies and a strong 500 mb ridge off the se
coast of the U.S. start off this forecast period 12z Tue. Shortwaves
eject out of this western trough, but they get sheared out as they
approach the area. Still looks like a mess of pcpn with a wintry mix
and will continue with the advisory. Does look like amounts will be
a bit less than forecasted for ice and also snow. Did not make too
many changes to the going forecast.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge across the
southeastern U.S. with a broad trough over the western U.S. 12z Thu.
Pattern changes little on Fri and then the trough starts to move
into the Rockies and western high plains on Sat. Pattern gets slowly
de-amplified this forecast period. Temperatures will be above normal
for this forecast period.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1222 AM EST MON FEB 19 2018

At KCMX and KIWD, IFR conditions to MVFR late tonight and Mon
morning. System snow moving Mon afternoon will likely lower
conditions back down to IFR into Mon evening.

At KSAW, a moist southerly flow could result in periodic MVFR
stratus into the overnight hours. With the passage of the frontal
boundary later tonight and the likelyhood of more system snow Mon
afternoon, expect conditions to steadily lower from MVFR to IFR by
Mon afternoon. Conditions will remain IFR into Mon evening as drying
aloft will lead to the development of freezing drizzle.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 341 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2018

South gales to 35 knots are expected over northern Lake Michigan
late through this evening. Otherwise, winds are expected to stay
below gales through the rest of the forecast period.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon
     to midnight EST /11 PM CST/ Tuesday night for MIZ006-007-
     012>014-085.

  Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ this morning
     to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Tuesday for MIZ004-005-010-011.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Beachler
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Titus
MARINE...Beachler


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