Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 232319
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
719 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
UT...A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND A TROUGH
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN CONFLUENT WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SW TO W WINDS PREVAILED OVER MOST OF UPPER MI
BUT WERE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO MOVE INTO THE N
CNTRL. MIXING AOA 10K FT HAS HELPED DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WITH TEMPS ALSO INTO THE UPPER 70S...RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE. VIS LOOP INDICATEED SCT DIURNAL CU
ALONG WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE MN/WI.

TONIGHT...WITH PERSISTENT SW WINDS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...MIN READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED RIDING INTO THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER SW
TO W MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE WITH 300K-310K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT THAT THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN MAY BE DELAYED BY CONTINUE DRY LOW LEVELS. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY INCREASING CLOUD
THICKNESS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN TO START LONG TERM SHOWS LARGER TROUGH FM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PLAIN STATES. RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER SE CONUS
EXTENDS RIDGE BACK OVER GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE ON LEADING EDGE OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...SEEN IN H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FIELDS...
COMBINES WITH LARGER SCALE ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 130+
KT JET STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTN.
SHOWERS SHOULD END FIRST ALONG THE WI BORDER ON MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN ALONG LK SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWS
UP SOME WITH SI/S LOWERING TOWARD 0-1C BUT THAT ARRIVES AFTER MAIN
FORCING MOVES ACROSS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT.
RAIN COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PWATS BY 12Z MONDAY AT KGRB
THAT WOULD BE IN THE HIGHEST 5 PCT COMPARED TO CLIMO FOR THE DATE.
ESE-E WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT/ADVECTION OF
HIGHER DWPNTS AND RAIN OVER ALL THE AREA POINTS TO FOG OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/ADJACENT SHORELINES AND ALSO OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL CWA BTWN KIMT AND MARQUETTE.

UNCERTAINTY IN POPS/WX LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER DUE TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING THAT MOVES OVERHEAD IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. LIKELY WILL
BE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH SSW BLYR WINDS DO NOT FAVOR
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS SINCE THAT PROVIDES MINIMAL TRAJECTORIES OFF
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FM THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE SSW WINDS ALSO
DIMINISHED FOG ON THE LAND AREAS...AT LEAST AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN AND
THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR. NAM INDICATES ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MID-
LEVEL MOSITURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO COMBINE WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. SINCE NAM IS ONLY MODEL
INDICATING THIS AT PRESENT...WILL DISCOUNT THAT IDEA AND CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY POPS. TEMPS ON MONDAY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLEARING. WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO BOOST TEMPS WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT IN WARM SECTOR OF
SFC LOW THAT WILL BE NW OF LK SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUE. MIXING TO H9
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT SWINGS ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. VARYING IDEAS ON
STRENGTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. GFS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THAT IDEA WHERE ECMWF AND GEM ARE NOT
AS BULLISH. KEPT IT SIMPLE AND RETAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BASED ON SW H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER OVER EAST HALF OF CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE FOG GOING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. ENOUGH DRYING DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY TO DISSIPATE THE
FOG. TEMPS ON TUESDAY COOLEST OVER NW CWA AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN WITH
MORE PRONOUNCED ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN FOR THOSE AREAS THOUGH...TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER.

REST OF EXTENDED INDICATES MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BASED ON LATEST ECMWF WHICH TRENDED TOWARD LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS...APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE DRIER AS MORE ACTIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
KEPT LOW CHANCES THAT CONSENSUS GAVE ATTM...BUT IF THESE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS FM NEXT
SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL.
GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL COOLING AT H85 OTHER THAN WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...COULD SEE TEMPS MOST DAYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PUSH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD STAY SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH MAINLY 40S
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS MOVE BACK IN NEXT
WEEKEND AS COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...
DRY AIR WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THRU SUN AFTN...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SW-W WINDS TO 25 KTS...EVEN GREATER THAN 30 KTS AT HIGHER LEVEL
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS...DIMINISHES THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS THEN
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTHWEST LK SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR ON MONDAY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHEAST DUE TO FUNNELLING. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WINDS BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT
DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA



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