Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 281747
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1247 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

CONTINUE TO SEE WEAKENING RADAR RETURNS OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR
W UPPER MI...AS MOISTURE FALLS FROM MID CLOUDS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
SNOW OBSERVED AT WX STATIONS AND COULD NOT DETECT ANYTHING FALLING
WHEN VIEWING AREA WEBCAMS. WILL STILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
THIS MORNING OVER MAINLY W LAKE SUPERIOR THOUGH.

ON THE OTHER END OF THE CWA...THE SLOW ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS E OF
MUNISING AND MANISTIQUE HAS ALLOWED A FEW SPOTS /SPINCICH LAKE AND
RACO/ TO FALL TO -10F OR LOWER. OTHERWISE A STEADY 20-25F HAS BEEN
COMMON UNDER THE CLOUDS OF W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. LOOK FOR SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS OVER THE E AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE WNW.

BEGINNING TODAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND STUCK BETWEEN AN EXITING RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...AND NEARING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE PLAINS LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS IA THIS EVENING...AND EXTEND N OVER
THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH STEADY S WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW...EXPECT 850MB TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE 1 TO -4C RANGE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE THE WARMEST AIR WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN A
WHILE...WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 27-35F RANGE /LAST
OCCURRED ON THE 24TH OF THIS MONTH...BUT NOT EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK/.

THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E FCST AREA STILL LOOK TO GET CLIPPED BY -SN
TODAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE CWA WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL
THE 500MB RIDGE EXITS AND THE SFC LOW NEARS EARLY THIS EVENING.
THINGS GET TRICKIER THIS EVENING AS THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CWA...AND IS ASSISTED BY A FEW DIFFERENT WAVES WITHIN THE
MAIN 500MB TROUGH NEARING FROM THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS AND S CENTRAL
CANADA. THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SET UP FROM S MANITOBA THROUGH CENTRAL
ONTARIO AND N LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z WILL QUICKLY EDGE E AND SE...AND
BECOMING ENHANCED OVER N CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. EXACT
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL A BIT TRICKY...WITH FCST MODELS INDICATING
ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDRETHS TO OVER A QUARTER INCH OF LIQUID FROM
E ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTY BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE
NEARLY 1-3 IN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH MARQUETTE COUNTY AND
E. WINDS WILL ONLY BE STARTING TO COME AROUND OUT OF THE W TO WNW
OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY...SO LITTLE TO NO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT...IN THE WET SNOW. SLR
VALUES OF 10-13:1 SHOULD BE COMMON. ADDED A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF
FZDZ OVER FAR W NEAR IWD AFTER 09Z THURSDAY AS SOME OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DEPART. BETTER CHANCE WILL BE AFTER DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FCST FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE WL TURN TO THE IMPACT OF
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWVS THAT ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU A DEEPENING
UPR TROF IN ERN NAMERICA THAT WL BRING A RETURN OF BLO NORMAL TEMPS
MOST OF THIS TIME TO THE CWA. WITH THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR...LES WL
ALSO BE A CONCERN.

THU...THE FIRST OF THESE CLIPPER SHRTWVS IS CURRENTLY MOVING E THRU
ALBERTA AND IS FCST TO BE NEAR FAR NW LAKE SUP AT 12Z THU BEFORE
MOVING TO NEAR THE SAULT AT 00Z FRI TO THE N OF ANOTHER SHRTWV/SFC
LO PRES DRIFTING THRU THE LOWER LKS. THE MODELS INDICATE THERE WL BE
LTL IF ANY PHASING BTWN THESE SEPARTE DISTURBANCES...SO LINGERING
LIGHT SN IN THE WAA/DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THIS NRN
SHRTWV SHOULD BE DIMINISHING W-E ON THU MRNG AS ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FNT SWEEPS SE AND CLEARS THE CWA BY 18Z THU. NNW H925 WINDS FCST
AS HI AS 35 TO 40 KTS UNDER THE SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LO MOVING INTO SE ONTARIO AND TRAILING ARCTIC HI
PRES BLDG THRU SCENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE
UPR LKS...DROPPING H85 TEMPS OVER THE UPR LKS TO ARND -20C BY 00Z
FRI. BEFORE THIS VERY COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA IN THE
AFTN...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE A BIT OF FREEZING DZ
MIXED WITH LINGERING LIGHT SN IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP AS
SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOIST LYR WARMER THAN
-10C FOR A COUPLE OF HRS. THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR WL FAVOR
FALLING TEMPS AND LES IN THE AFTN. SO INCLUDED A SCHC OF SOME OF
THIS WINTRY MIX. BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE RELATED TO THE VIGOROUS
CAA/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IS FCST TO DROP THE INVRN BASE TO
BTWN H85-9 DURING THE DAY...WHICH ALONG WITH A NEUTRAL/ACYC LLVL
FLOW LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SN SHOWERS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE DGZ WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LYR. WITH THE STRONG CAA/NEAR SFC
DESTABILIZATION AND THE EXPECTED H925 WINDS...WIND GUSTS AT EXPOSED
AREAS NEAR LK SUP WL AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA AND BRING ABOUT
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SN. SINCE SN AMOUNTS WL BE MARGINAL...DID NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES. WL MENTION THE GUSTY WINDS/BLOWING SN IN THE
HWO.

THU NGT...PERSISTENT COLD BUT SLOWLY DIMINISHING NNW WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF SLOWLY APRCHG SFC HI PRES WL BRING CONTINUED LES IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS...BUT AS INVRN BASE SINKS FURTHER W-E UNDER THE
LARGER SCALE DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG
AXIS...FOLLOWED TREND OF PREVIOUS FCST TO SHOW DCRSG POPS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W...WHERE THE H925 FLOW WL BECOME MORE SHARPLY ACYC. OVER
THE FAR W...THE LES MAY END COMPLETELY BY 12Z WITH FCST INVRN BASE
NEAR H95. AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF MAY FALL BLO
ZERO IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT CONTINUED NW SFC-H925 FLOW WL FAVOR SOME
MODERATION OFF LK SUP AND LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE SUB ZERO MINS.

FRI...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO SHIFT FM OVER MN INTO THE LOWER LKS. AS
WINDS BACK TO THE W...LINGERING LES OVER THE W WL BECOME CONFINED TO
OVER THE KEWEENAW AND END OVER THE E EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORE E OF
GRAND MARAIS TOWARD 00Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE LK CLDS WL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...MORE MID/HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING SE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF WL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPR LKS.

FRI NGT/SAT...SHRTWV IS FCST TO SLIDE ESEWD THRU THE UPR LKS. SINCE
THIS DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO BE FAIRLY SHEARED OUT WITH ONLY
AN AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MSTR INFLOW WL BE
FAIRLY LIMITED...SUSPECT ACCOMPANYING SN WL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SN OVER THE E ON SAT MRNG WL END WITH ARRIVAL OF
LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING AND GIVE WAY TO SOME LES AS
COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THE SHRTWV AND DROPS H85 TEMPS TOWARD -20C AGAIN
LATE. BUT MORE DIFFLUENT ACYC H925 FLOW/LO SUBSIDENCE INVRN FCST IN
THE H875-9 RANGE WL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR LES INTENSITY AGAIN.

EXTENDED...UNDER A NW FLOW ALF BTWN A MEAN TROF OVER ERN CANADA AND
A RDG OVER THE W...ARCTIC HI PRES IS FCST TO SINK SEWD FM WRN CANADA
ON SUN INTO UPR MS VALLEY ON MON AND THEN INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY
ON TUE...BRINGING A CONTINUOUS FEED OF CNDN AIR AND H85 TEMPS
FALLING AS LO AS -25C BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A NUMBER OF THE EXTENDED
MODELS ARE HINTING A LO PRES WL TAKE SHAPE IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLY
ON SUN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS...BUT
INDICATE THE SFC LO WL TRACK ENE FAR ENUF TO THE SE OF UPR MI TO
KEEP THE ASSOCIATED PCPN SHIELD TO THE S AS WELL. BUT THE CHILL OF
THE INCOMING AIRMASS INDICATES LES WL BE A GOOD BET IN THE FAVORED
SN BELTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MODERATION NEXT TUE INTO WED AS THE SW
FLOW BTWN THE HI MOVING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ANOTHER
SHRTWV DROPPING SE THRU SCENTRAL CANADA DRAWS H85 TEMPS IN THE -10
TO -12C RANGE BACK INTO THE UPR LKS. BUT THIS CLIPPER MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SN. AS THE TROF DEEPENS AGAIN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS MAY INVADE LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON OBS AROUND THE AREA...IT APPEARS VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THIS AFTN. WILL NEED TO WATCH LOW CLOUDS
STREAMING N UP LAKE MICHIGAN. AS WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY THIS AFTN...
THESE LOWER CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY REACH KSAW EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED. AT KIWD...DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT SHOULD PREVENT THE
LOWER CLOUDS IN NRN WI FROM REACHING THE TERMINAL. DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME -SN/DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.
ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR WITH A FEW HRS OF LIFR
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE -FZDZ LATE TONIGHT AT
KIWD. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY THU MORNING WILL BRING
INCREASING...GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX
TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH N-NNW GALES OF 35-40KTS.

EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO THIS MORNING TO SHIFT E AND
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE N PLAINS WILL MOVE TO AROUND CHICAGO ON THURSDAY...AND INTO N
NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW MOVES FROM S SASKATCHEWAN
TO N LAKE SUPERIOR AND QUEBEC. IN THEIR WAKE...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
OVER S CENTRAL CANADA TO FOLLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
FRIDAY...USHERING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THIS HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY...A LOW
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL THEN PUSH
OVER SE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. N WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO 20-30KTS
SATURDAY-SUNDAY. LOOK FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER W CANADA ON
SUNDAY...AND EXTEND A RIDGE INTO ONTARIO JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ267.

  GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ266.

  GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ264-265.

  GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF


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