Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 020824

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
324 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 343 PM EST THU DEC 1 2016

Sfc low has moved east of Lk Superior but sfc troughing remains
across Upper Michigan and northern WI. Cool moist northwest flow
north of the trough is resulting in lake effect precip in the form
of mostly snow across the west half and mainly in the form of rain
across the east half of the cwa. Lake effect was heavier and more
widespread late last night into late this morning as a shortwave
wrapping around the western portion of the larger scale trough moved
across. Some higher terrain areas saw 2-4 inches of snow during that
time but based on web cams and sfc obs seems that the snow into this
aftn has become lighter. Expect marginal setup for lake effect to
continue through tonight and Friday with h85 temps -7c or so and
inversion heights around h85/5kft. Another couple of shortwaves
north of Lk Superior look poised to drop across Lk Superior and
parts of Upper Michigan later tonight into Friday morning. Stronger
forcing and deeper moisture look to mainly affect eastern cwa but
should see increase in lake effect for all areas as these waves
drop across similar to what occurred last night and this morning.

Additional snow amounts tonight into Fri morning will mainly be an
inch or two, but isolated higher terrain spots over the west and
maybe just inland from Lk Superior in the east could see higher
amounts of 3 to 4 inches. Only real bigger adjustment into Fri was
to ramp up pops over east cwa late tonight and Friday morning even
south to the Lk Michigan shore as that area will be most directly
impacted by the shortwave dropping down across eastern Lk Superior
and will have the advantage of being at the end of the longer fetch
with nw winds off Lk Superior. Consensus of probability of ice
present grids indicate that if enough deeper moisture does not
materialize, especially west, there could be some chance of drizzle
or freezing drizzle. Only have a slight chance of drizzle mainly
late tonight and into Fri.

Temperatures will fall back into the upper 20s tonight over the
interior west and central and that could lead to slippery spots as
moisture from the light snow today refreezes. Will mention that in
the hazardous weather outlook (HWOMQT). Farther east, temps will
fall into the lower 30s inland and stay in the mid 30s near the
shore. Should eventually see the rain near the shore mix with and
change to snow. Feasible it could stay warm enough right near the
shore to keep ptype mainly rain. Temps will stay cool on Fri with
low 30s over interior west and as warm as upper 30s near Lk Michigan
and over the far east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2016

Upper air pattern 12z Sat will consist of a closed 500 mb low over
northern Mexico with a shortwave in the northern plains. The trough
in the northern plains moves into the upper Great Lakes on Sun. Nam
shows some deeper moisture and 850-500 mb q-vector convergence
moving through the area on Sun before both move out Sun night.
Basically, did not make too many changes to the going forecast
with chance pops for sun into sun night.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a closed 500 mb low over TX and
a trough in the northern Rockies 12z Mon. This closed low over TX
moves northeast and opens up while the trough over the Rockies heads
east into the northern plains 12z Tue. This trough amplifies over
the central U.S. mid week. The trough moves into the upper Great
Lakes on Thu along with colder air aloft. Temperatures will fall
below normal starting Thu. Still looks like there could be a big
storm Wed night into Thu, but confidence is still low with the
details right now.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1148 PM EST THU DEC 1 2016

Abundant low-level moisture will result in prevailing MVFR
conditions at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this fcst period. With
northwesterly winds the rule, winds will have a downslope component
at KSAW, so some periods of VFR are possible. Conversely, the nw
upslope flow at KCMX/KIWD will result in generally lower cigs with
KIWD possibly seeing some periods of IFR. -SHSN are also expected
off Lake Superior, especially at KIWD/KCMX, but coverage will
diminish today. Not out of the question that there could be a little
-FZDZ at KCMX/KIWD overnight thru this morning.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 343 PM EST THU DEC 1 2016

Surface low continues to drift east away from Lk Superior but
tighter pressure gradient across Lk Superior will keep nw winds 20
to 30 kts into Fri, strongest on the east half. High pressure moving
across will diminish the winds to 20 kts or less Fri night into the
weekend. Approaching low pressure trough for the middle of next week
will result in southeast winds increasing to 25 kts, strongest over
eastern sections.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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