Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 021737
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
137 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WRN
NORTH AMERICA WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NORTH
AMERICA INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED
IN A WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE
REGION CLOUD-FREE OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
SHALLOW PATCHY FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER IRONWOOD AREA
WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE CONDITIONS NEAR SATURATION AND WHERE SFC HIGH
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE AT 12Z. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE WITH DIURNAL MIXING.

TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST
INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CU DEVELOPMENT
ALONG LAKE BREEZES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA IN THE EVENING WILL SLIDE SE LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NRN ONTARIO. ADVANCING
WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING FROM
DEVELOPING SW GRADIENT WIND BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FALLING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO LOWER NEAR
THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS INTERIOR WEST AND
CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

TUESDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WILL BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN TO
UPPER MICHIGAN IN OVER A WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SSE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...INITIATING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY INCREASING MID TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S
INLAND. ADDITIONALLY...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25MPH FOR THE WEST LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
AFTER A WEEK OF DRYING...FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED FOR
TUESDAY. FIRE WX INDICES FOR ALL FUELS...ESPECIALLY GRASSY
FUELS...HAVE BEEN BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS OF
MOST CONCERN INCLUDE THE INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE SE HALF IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SLOW WHILE
CROSSING THE REGION...RESULTING IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
INLAND AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. BLUSTERY NNW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS...TEMPS IN THE 40S...WILL PRODUCE A RATHER CHILLY DAY FOR
EARLY MAY. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR MAY FAIL TO
REACH 40F.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
QUICKER WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH A SURGE OF WARMER
AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...HAVE TRENDED WARMER
WITH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS LOOKS TO TOP OUT WELL IN THE 70S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEST. WINDS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...SO FIRE WX CONCERNS
WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TUE MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. IN ADDITION...SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT IWD AND SAW BY LATE MORNING BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO
20 KNOTS. AS RIDGE SAGS SE TONIGHT...WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME
N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO
LESS THAN 20KT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS



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