Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 280826
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
426 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH HAS LED TO A VERY COOL LATE AUGUST MORNING FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 3AM
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 32 DEGREES AT SPINCICH LAKE TO 63 DEGREES IN
MENOMINEE. THIS DISPARITY OF TEMPERATURES IS DUE TO A COUPLE POCKETS
OF CLOUDS THAT ARE AFFECTING THE U.P. THE FIRST AREA IS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
SLOWLY EXPANDING OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. THE SECOND AREA FORMED
OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAS EXPANDED AS IT
SHIFTED SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS NOW SPREADING
INTO THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN UPPER MICHIGAN. WILL FOLLOW A
PERSISTENCE TREND OVER THE NEXT 3-6HRS FOR THESE FEATURES...WHICH
MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE TEMPS AND FOG POTENTIAL DURING
THAT PERIOD. DID TRIM THE PATCHY FOG BACK THIS MORNING FROM AREAS
WHERE THE FORECAST HAD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AN UPPER WAVE SEEN SPINNING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BE THE CONTROLLING FACTOR FOR WEATHER IN THE
U.P. FOR THE START OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE U.P. WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE EXISTING CLOUDS MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED CLOUD COVER
FORECAST THIS MORNING AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY DIMINISH SOME DURING THE MORNING...THE PRESENCE OF THE
850-800MB MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/THICKENING
BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE
APPROACHING WAVE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
BE INCREASING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
THICKNESS WHILE LOWERING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WAVE COMES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE SKIES CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS
MAY TRY TO LIMIT SOME OF THE HEATING TODAY...BUT STILL THINK HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

AS FOR THAT WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION
FOR TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY TOWARDS DAYBREAK) EVEN
THOUGH SOME OF THE INITIAL WAVES START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING. THIS DELAY IS DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY MID LEVEL AIR
THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER AREA TOWARDS THE LATE
EVENING AND THEN INCREASE THEM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO AT LEAST LIKELY POPS. MODELS VARYING
SOMEWHAT ON THE LOCATIONS OF THE BEST PRECIP...BUT THINK THE BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO RAIN OVER MOST OF
THE CWA. DID SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS TOWARDS 12Z (LOW END DEFINITE)
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P. WHERE THE BEST DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...BUT THINK THE PERSISTENT PUSH OF
THE FORCING TO THE NORTHEAST (AROUND 20KTS) SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
12Z AROUND 0.33-0.50IN ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND THEN TAPERING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS FOR THUNDER...THERE IS A POCKET OF STEEPER
LAPSE RATES FROM AROUND 750-600MB THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT DON/T
EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST SHOWN SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDER WHERE POPS ARE ABOVE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE CURRENT TROUGH SET UP ACROSS WY/UT/CO WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES BY 00Z FRIDAY...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE ACROSS MN AND N
WI. LOOK FOR THE LARGE SFC HIGH SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO BE ON THE WAY OUT. WE WILL BE FACING THE LARGE SFC LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG...AND THEN
NEARING S STREAM LOW SET UP FROM OK TO FAR SW MN AT 00Z FRIDAY.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL START THE PERIOD. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL PUMP
UP ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE S LOW
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA /LIKELY LOCATED BETWEEN W UPPER MI AND SE MN
BY 18Z FRIDAY/. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE START OF
THIS FCST TO ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VARYING FROM ONLY
A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AROUND IRON CO FOR EXAMPLE...TO WELL OVER
AN INCH. EITHER WAY...INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TS WERE NEEDED. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW MOVING TO CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI AT 00Z
SATURDAY...AND THE COLD FRONT JUST TO THE W OF THE CWA WILL BE
INTERESTING. CURRENTLY HAVE MINIMUM POPS FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS NEED TO BE INCREASED.
CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN...WITH PW VALUES LINGERING AT OR
ABOVE 1IN. THE N STREAM COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MI LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE
FOR SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TAILORED AS THE TIME NEARS. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL NEAR FOR LABOR DAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK IN FOR THE START OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK. LOWERED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY FROM A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES...EXCEPT
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME BRIEF MVFR VIS AT SAW OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY BR TO DEVELOP AT SAW. VIS MAY
FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ANY BR OR FG
SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY
WHILE A COUPLE WEAK TROUGHS MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF





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