Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 181723
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE
OVER THE DESERT SW. THE TROUGH HEADS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND AFFECTS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK
850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

DIFFICULT FORECAST TO PIN ANYTHING DOWN ON. SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO
BREAK OUT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING AND THERE ARE
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE WEST AND SW OF THE
AREA. THINK MORE OF THE SAME WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GETS CLOSER AND WENT WITH SCATTERED POPS ALL DAY LONG INTO THIS
EVENING. WENT LIKELY POPS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CW AS THERE COULD BE AN MCS THAT MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND THIS WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT AND ALSO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY A BIT AS
WELL. ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKS GOOD AND CONTINUED THE TREND WITH THAT.
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A WET ONE AS AN UPPER WAVE OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AT 12Z TUE CLOSES OFF AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN U.P. BY
18Z TUE. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN SLOW DOWN...FINALLY LEAVING THE
AREA LATER ON WED. THE SFC LOW WILL BE SOMEWHERE OVER NRN WI OR
ALONG THE WI/MI BORDER AT 12Z TUE AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E INTO TUE
NIGHT BEFORE MORE QUICKLY MOVING SE ON WED. PWATS ON TUE WILL BE
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES /NORMAL IS AROUND AN INCH/...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE FORCING FROM THE UPPER LOW/CYCLONIC FLOW AND
UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES IN SPOTS /ESPECIALLY OVER WRN UPPER
MI/...WILL RESULT IN DECENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. THINK THAT
SOME SPOTS COULD SEE EASILY OVER AN INCH OF PRECIP ON TUE/EARLY TUE
NIGHT...DEPENDING ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THAT ARE NOT ENTIRELY
CLEAR AT THIS POINT. WHILE IT IS HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC ON
HEAVIEST PRECIP PLACEMENT/TIMING...THINK THAT MOST OF THE CWA WILL
SEE PERIODS OF RAIN TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY IN MOST PLACES. WILL LEAVE THUNDER CHANCES TO A MINIMUM...BUT
WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER SCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI WHERE
CAPES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER AT AROUND 200J/KG DURING THE DAY TUE.
WITH THICK CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S...OR 5 TO POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WED WILL SEE DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SE...BUT
DO LINGER CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT
DRIER THAN EARLY IN THE WEEK. MODELS DO POINT TO PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THU INTO THU
NIGHT...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE DRIER AIR.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THU INTO THU NIGHT...AND SOME LINGERING POPS
INTO FRI.

UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODELS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF VARIABILITY /RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL/ WITH THE
STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOMEWHERE IN
OR NEAR THE REGION. WHILE MODELS DO APPEAR TO AGREE WITH QPF ON
SAT/SAT NIGHT...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE REASON FOR THAT QPF...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN IT WOULD SEEM BY JUST LOOKING AT QPF.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFICS ARE FAR FROM CLEAR...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DEEP MSTR/SCT TO AT TIMES NMRS
SHRA OVER THE UPR LKS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY
ESEWD THRU MN. BEST CHC FOR THE LOWER LIFR...AND POSSIBLY VLIFR...
CONDITIONS WL BE LATER TNGT/EARLY TUE IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING WHEN THE TAF SITES EXPERIENCE UPSLOPE FLOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS A RELATIVELY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ABOVE THE CHILLY
WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07



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