Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 200400
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1200 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WRN CANADA AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE NRN
GREAT LAKES. STRONG MID-LEVEL DRYING WAS EVIDENT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LAKES BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WAS BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AN WRN LAKES BRINGING DIMINISHING NW WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES. VIS LOOP SHOWED CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEST AND
THINNING CLOUDS CENTRAL. RADAR ALSO INDICATED THAT THE REMAINING -
SHSN HAD QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH ONLY SOME ISOLD FLURRIES OVER THE
EAST.

TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM WI INTO LOWER
MI...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AND WEST WINDS TO DIMINISH/DECOUPLE.
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR
BELOW 0.25 INCH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE. MIN READINGS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND ARE EXPECTED
TO TEMPS TO AROUND 30 CLOSER TO THE LAKES. ALTHOUGH OUR FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM HAS NOT STARTED YET...WOULD EXPECT A WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN AND A HARD FREEZE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. AN SPS HAS
BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY HIGH PRES DOMINATING...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
MIXING TO AROUND 6K FT (850 MB TEMPS AROUND 4C) WILL SUPPORT INLAND
HIGHS IN TOE LOW TO MID 60S. LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE
50S ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

A QUIET FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...DUE TO THE AREA BEING BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. WHILE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE BRUSHED BY A FEW
WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING BELOW NORMAL
(ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR). THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT ITEM OF NOTE
IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LOOK LIMITED...WILL
JUST SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS THAT DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A
STRAY SHOWER OVER SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY (MORE LIKELY IN
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN) WITH SOME HELP FROM A LAKE BREEZE OFF THE BAY
OF GREEN BAY. DON/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE POPS FOR
ANY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE CITY OF MENOMINEE...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH. ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR BEFORE HIGHS SLOWLY
RISE TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES ON SATURDAY (DUE TO THE HIGH
DEPARTING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTING TO DEVELOP.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO IOWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LATEST TREND IS FOR THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO
LIFT FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THOUGHT YESTERDAY...SO WILL TREND
POPS UP ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH.
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK DURING THAT
PERIOD...WITH THE AREA GENERALLY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW...SO WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. NEXT WEEK
STILL LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED...AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS WEAKENS AND LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SAW WILL
SEE A NORTHEAST LAKE BREEZE AGAIN WITH WEAK WINDS WED AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. WED
THROUGH SAT...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT AS SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG
INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB



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