Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 282027
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
327 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

CONTINUE TO SEE WEAKENING RADAR RETURNS OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR
W UPPER MI...AS MOISTURE FALLS FROM MID CLOUDS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
SNOW OBSERVED AT WX STATIONS AND COULD NOT DETECT ANYTHING FALLING
WHEN VIEWING AREA WEBCAMS. WILL STILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
THIS MORNING OVER MAINLY W LAKE SUPERIOR THOUGH.

ON THE OTHER END OF THE CWA...THE SLOW ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS E OF
MUNISING AND MANISTIQUE HAS ALLOWED A FEW SPOTS /SPINCICH LAKE AND
RACO/ TO FALL TO -10F OR LOWER. OTHERWISE A STEADY 20-25F HAS BEEN
COMMON UNDER THE CLOUDS OF W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. LOOK FOR SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS OVER THE E AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE WNW.

BEGINNING TODAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND STUCK BETWEEN AN EXITING RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...AND NEARING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE PLAINS LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS IA THIS EVENING...AND EXTEND N OVER
THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH STEADY S WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW...EXPECT 850MB TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE 1 TO -4C RANGE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE THE WARMEST AIR WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN A
WHILE...WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 27-35F RANGE /LAST
OCCURRED ON THE 24TH OF THIS MONTH...BUT NOT EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK/.

THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E FCST AREA STILL LOOK TO GET CLIPPED BY -SN
TODAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE CWA WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL
THE 500MB RIDGE EXITS AND THE SFC LOW NEARS EARLY THIS EVENING.
THINGS GET TRICKIER THIS EVENING AS THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CWA...AND IS ASSISTED BY A FEW DIFFERENT WAVES WITHIN THE
MAIN 500MB TROUGH NEARING FROM THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS AND S CENTRAL
CANADA. THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SET UP FROM S MANITOBA THROUGH CENTRAL
ONTARIO AND N LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z WILL QUICKLY EDGE E AND SE...AND
BECOMING ENHANCED OVER N CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. EXACT
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL A BIT TRICKY...WITH FCST MODELS INDICATING
ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDRETHS TO OVER A QUARTER INCH OF LIQUID FROM
E ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTY BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE
NEARLY 1-3 IN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH MARQUETTE COUNTY AND
E. WINDS WILL ONLY BE STARTING TO COME AROUND OUT OF THE W TO WNW
OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY...SO LITTLE TO NO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT...IN THE WET SNOW. SLR
VALUES OF 10-13:1 SHOULD BE COMMON. ADDED A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF
FZDZ OVER FAR W NEAR IWD AFTER 09Z THURSDAY AS SOME OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DEPART. BETTER CHANCE WILL BE AFTER DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CWA AT 00Z FRI...WITH MOST OF
THE ASSOCIATED FORCING E OF THE CWA BY THAT TIME. NW-NNW LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -22C WILL KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE NW-
NNW WINDS SNOWBELTS THU NIGHT...BUT A SFC RIDGE PUSHING THROUGH ON
FRI WILL LEAD TO A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE LES AS WINDS BECOME ANTI-
CYCLONIC. WINDS TURN SWLY BY FRI NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AND AHEAD
OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT. NW WIND LES WILL RAMP UP ALONG AND BEHIND THE
TROUGH AS 850MB WINDS AS LOW AS -30C SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
LOOK TO MODERATE SOME MON INTO TUE AS A RIDGE MOVES THROUGH...WITH
ANOTHER COLD BLAST SHOWN BY MODELS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

OVER THE NEXT WEEK THE NW WINDS SNOWBELTS MAINLY E OF MARQUETTE WILL
SEE THE MOST SNOWFALL...WITH PROLONGED LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL.
WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS... GROWTH WILL BE ADVERSELY
IMPACTED...WITH SMALL SNOW FLAKES EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VIS THE
PREDOMINANT CONDITION.

COLD TEMPS ARE A CERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON WHEN HIGHS WILL
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON OBS AROUND THE AREA...IT APPEARS VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THIS AFTN. WILL NEED TO WATCH LOW CLOUDS
STREAMING N UP LAKE MICHIGAN. AS WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY THIS AFTN...
THESE LOWER CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY REACH KSAW EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED. AT KIWD...DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT SHOULD PREVENT THE
LOWER CLOUDS IN NRN WI FROM REACHING THE TERMINAL. DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME -SN/DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.
ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR WITH A FEW HRS OF LIFR
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE -FZDZ LATE TONIGHT AT
KIWD. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY THU MORNING WILL BRING
INCREASING...GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX
TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH N-NNW GALES OF 35-40KTS.

EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO THIS MORNING TO SHIFT E AND
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE N PLAINS WILL MOVE TO AROUND CHICAGO ON THURSDAY...AND INTO N
NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW MOVES FROM S SASKATCHEWAN
TO N LAKE SUPERIOR AND QUEBEC. IN THEIR WAKE...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
OVER S CENTRAL CANADA TO FOLLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
FRIDAY...USHERING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THIS HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY...A LOW
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL THEN PUSH
OVER SE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. N WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO 20-30KTS
SATURDAY-SUNDAY. LOOK FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER W CANADA ON
SUNDAY...AND EXTEND A RIDGE INTO ONTARIO JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ267.

  GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ266.

  GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ264-265.

  GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF


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