Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 271859
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
259 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...VERY CHILLY NIGHT INLAND...

QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ALREADY MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH MQT
VWP INDICATING INVERSIONS BLO 3KFT. NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
THAT EXTENDED WELL INLAND EVEN TO PARTS OF MENOMINEE AND DELTA
COUNTIES EARLIER TODAY RETREATED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF MARQUETTE
COUNTY BY EARLY AFTN AND NOW HAVE DIMINISHED TO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND DAKOTAS ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LGT SNOW...BUT BASED ON
H7-H4 RH PROGS FM MODELS...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR OVER UPPER
LAKES TONIGHT AS THESE CLOUDS PEEL OFF TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET INLAND. LOWERED MINS WELL BLO ZERO FOR FAVORED COLD
SPOTS. THIS MORNING WITH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GETTING
COLD...SAW A FEW LOCATIONS BLO ZERO AND THE COOP LOCATION IN IRON
COUNTY NEAR STAMBAUGH EVEN FELL TO 16 BLO ZERO. TEMPS BENEATH THE
HIGH UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WERE AS LOW AS 20S BLO. NO
REASON TEMPS WILL NOT DROP TO AROUND 20 BLO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
TYPICAL COLD INLAND SPOTS. BASED ON AVAILABLE PAST DATA...THESE
READINGS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR SOME SITES.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS ONLY INCREASING
LATE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL
CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MAY ALSO SEE FEW-SCT FLAT LOWER CU
CLOUDS TRY TO FORM OVER INLAND WEST IN THE AFTN. DESPITE THE
CHILLY START...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS OVER FAR WEST TO
REBOUND TO THE LOW 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. SO...IN
SOME PLACES THIS ENDS UP BEING A DIURNAL SWING OF OVER 60 DEGREES!
COOLER EXCEPTION FOR HIGHS WILL BE OVER EAST AS SW WINDS OFF LK
MICHIGAN HOLD TEMPS THERE IN THE UPR 20S TO NEAR 30 EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE
ZONAL PATTERH THAT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA BUT WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM
SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLS OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SRN
LAKES AND OH VALLY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS MODERATING
CLOSER TO NORMAL. WEAK WAA WITH LIGHT SW WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS BACK
TO -7C TO -10C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS FROM AROUND 30 EAST TO THE
MID 30S ENTRL AND AROUND 40 SOUTH AND WEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN
ONTARIO AND THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY. 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AT
LEAST INTO THE 0.10-0.20 INCH RANGE...PER MDLS CONSENSUS. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL FALL AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AND MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN ONLY AS THE STRONGER LIFT DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A
QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH IN
LINE WITH THE STRONGER FORCING. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW VEERING TO THE WNW BEHIND
THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS
FCST...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT MIXING
TOWARD THE SFC BRINGS RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE KEWEENAW AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES OUT MON AFTERNOON. WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR INTO THE
AREA...HIGHS WIL CLIMB TO AROUND 40 OVER THE NORTH AND EAST TO THE
MID AND UPER 40S OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TRACK OF THIS FEATURE IS LOWER.

WED-THU...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAA PCPN
INTO UPPER MI BY WED INTO WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
LINGERING COLD AIR FOR SNOW...MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A QUICKER
TRANSIITION TO MAINLY RAIN WITH TEMP REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LINGERING ISOLD LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WITH BRIEF IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY BLO 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA


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