Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 221924
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
324 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS INTO THE EVENING ENSURING CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE. ONLY ISSUE THIS AFTN ARE LOW RH VALUES AS LOW AS 15
PCT OVER INTERIOR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. TEMPS NEAR WI BORDER ARE IN
THE LOW 60S...BUT READINGS ARE IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR TO THE
EAST OF BIG BAY AND MARQUETTE. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING GOOD VIEWING
OF SMOKE PLUME FROM THE USFS PRESCRIBED BURN ONGOING ON THE BARAGA
PLAINS OF WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY. NW WINDS ALOFT HAVE PUSHED THE
PLUME AS FAR EAST AS SW MARQUETTE COUNTY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH SWING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
TONIGHT. ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AS UPR MICHIGAN. MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING SW-S WINDS BTWN THE ONTARIO TROUGH AND
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. STIRRING WINDS WILL KEEP DOWNSLOPE
AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WARM TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S.
HOWEVER...TEMPS INLAND OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY STILL FALL OFF INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S BEFORE TEMPS RISE TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE ALONG WI BORDER.
NONE OF THESE CLOUDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS THOUGH AS
DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED. MIXING TO H85-H8 SUPPORTS HIGHS TO AT LEAST
LOW-MID 70S OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN AWAY FM ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LK
MICHIGAN. STRONGEST WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH FM
KEWEENAW TO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AND INTO THE EASTERN U.P...SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTN AS ONTARIO TROUGH SLIDES FARTHER AWAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NAM SHOWS A RIDGE ACROSS THE SERN U.S. POKING UP INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES 12Z SAT. THE
PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR 12Z SUN WITH THE LOW FURTHER
NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE STILL OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE LOW
AND TROUGH MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH ON SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. WILL START TO BRING IN SOME POPS SUN
AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR WEST AND SOUTH AND THEN
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SUN NIGHT.
WILL ALSO GO DRIER FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THE DRY
WEATHER INTO SUN AFTERNOON. FRONT UP TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP POPS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA SAT. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SERN
U.S. 12Z MON WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA AND
A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. BREAKS
OFF A PIECE OF ENERGY AND PUSHES UP AGAINST THE RIDGE WITH A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO 12Z WED WITH A SFC FRONT POISED JUST
TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SFC FRONT HEADS SOUTH THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AND WITH SFC FRONTS IN THE AREA...RAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SINK SE TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. WINDS LOCALLY GUSTY AT KSAW DUE TO NE-E LAKE BREEZE
THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...WINDS AT THE TAF SITES STAY LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCATTERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS COULD GRAZE THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. MAIN
IMPACT FM THIS TROUGH WILL BE POSSIBLE LLWS LATE TONIGHT. DID NOT
INCLUDE THIS NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADD. DO EXPECT SW-W
WINDS TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX AND KSAW.
GUSTS MAY REACH OVER 25 KTS FOR A WHILE ON SATURDAY AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS BECOME SOUTHWEST-SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
THEN INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS IN GUSTS OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR INTO
SATUDAY. MARINE LAYER WILL RESTRICT STRONGEST WINDS FM REACHING
THE SFC AS WARM AIR SLIDES OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR.
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS SATURDAY EVENING AND SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA



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