Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 181852

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
152 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 152 PM EST THU JAN 18 2018

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb shortwave moving through the
upper Great Lakes today and is replaced by shortwave ridging tonight
into Fri. Moisture is limited for this forecast period and will be
mostly sprinkles or flurries at best if they occur. Best chance for
this would be in the Keweenaw and there could be some freezing
drizzle mixed in with it. Overall, no real big changes to the going

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 416 AM EST THU JAN 18 2018

...Potential winter storm is still on track for Sunday afternoon
through Tuesday morning...

The early portion of the extended forecast, Friday through Saturday,
is set to be fairly quiet. There is a chance of mixed precip as a
shortwave slides through the area and temperatures steadily warm
during the day Friday. The precipitation would be fairly light the
shortwave will be fast moving shortwave  and is progged to slide
through the north half of the U.P. The best moisture/forcing will
likely stay north of the area; however, the Keweenaw and locations
along Lake Superior over the far east could see a quick dusting of
snow or possibly even a light glaze. It doesn`t take much in the way
of light freezing rain to make roads slippery, so travelers will
need to remain aware of changing road conditions. Temperatures will
steadily warm into the afternoon hours Friday so overall impacts
should be limited in areal extent and confined mainly to the morning
hours. Actually, it looks like high temperatures will warm above
normal with upper 30s to near 40 degree readings possible Friday
into Saturday.

Attention turns to the potential winter storm for late Sunday
afternoon possibly lingering through Tuesday morning. Models are in
agreement with the low developing over the Plains/mid Mississippi
Valley Sunday morning, and then lifting the low north and eastward
into the Upper Great Lakes. There are differences beginning to show
up in the model runs, with the EC being slower with the system and
farther east, while the GFS/GEM are now farther west. The exact
track will have a great impact on where the heaviest snow bands set
up. The system would likely have plenty of moisture to work with as
the southerly flow is progged to be wide open to the Gulf of Mexico
moisture source. Models are still showing several inches of snow
across much of western and possibly central Upper Michigan; however,
the central and east do have the potential for mixed precipitation,
depending on the track and subsequent positioning of dry slot and
banding features. The large scale features that would be responsible
for this potential winter storm are still outside of the more
densely populated observation platforms, so it is expected that the
exact path of the low and associated heaviest snow band will vary
over the next few days. Again, confidence in forecasting this
potential winter storm will increase over the next couple days as
the system is better sampled. At this point, it will definitely be
worth keeping an eye on for the potential of widespread heavy snow
Sunday afternoon through Tuesday.

Tuesday and beyond, a consensus of the model blends was used. This
gives intermittent chance of lake effect snow; however, exact
placement will be dependent upon wind direction and placement of the
aforementioned stronger storm system.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM EST THU JAN 18 2018

A shortwave will bring wintry precip at KCMX through this evening
along with MVFR to IFR conditions. Could see freezing drizzle at
KCMX, but not expecting significant accumulations. At KIWD and KSAW,
precipitation is not expected.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 152 PM EST THU JAN 18 2018

Gales look likely late Sun night across western Lake Superior with
northeast gales expected. North to northeast gales across Lake
Superior Mon through Tue are expected as well.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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