Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 072014
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
414 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND SRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH
THROUGH NRN MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO. ONE WEAK SHRTWV IN CNTRL MN
SUPORTED SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM ERN MN INTO CNTRL WI...WHILE A MORE
PROMINENT SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER WRN NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SFC...GUSTY WNW WINDS PREVAILED WITH A 995 MB LOW PRES OVER NRN
ONTARIO(NEAR CYTS).

TONIGHT...THE HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
THE HEAVIER PCPN AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES WHERE THE GREATER
FORCING(700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV) AND INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED  AS THE ND SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS...NMS
SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS FARTHER NORTH TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR EAST
OF THE KEWEENAW. THUNDER WAS ALSO ONLY INDCLUDED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH.

TUESDAY...EXPECT THAT HIGHER PCPN CHANCES IN THE MORNING TO DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL PCPN
AMOUNTS SHOULD AGAIN BE GREATEST OVER SRN CWA. THE COMBINATION OF
THICKER CLOUDS AND NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT GUSTY WNW WINDS TO ALSO CONTINUE THEN DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND BRING INCREASING MID CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT IWD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. AS WINDS SHIFT NE
LATE TONIGHT LOOK FOR MVFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KIWD DROPPING TO IFR
TUE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW BY TUE
MORNING. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH THE RAIN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THAT COULD HELP DROP CIGS TO IFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
ANY STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIFT TOWARD JAMES BAY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY WILL SINK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB






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