Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 280837
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
337 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW 12Z SAT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW BEING ZONAL OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH HEADS EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z SUN AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT. COLD AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FALLING THEN. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE ON SUN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO BRING
THE COLDER AIR IN QUICKER FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FALLING ALL DAY ON SUNDAY AND HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THIS. WILL ALSO KEEP MIXED PCPN IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT
WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND SNOW IN THE MORNING CHANGING TO RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WITH VERY
COLD AIR 12Z MON OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
DOWN TO AROUND -28C AT THAT TIME. THEY QUICKLY MODIFY WITH THE
TROUGH PASSING OFF TO THE EAST 12Z TUE WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THIS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. 12Z THU. THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY
ACTIVE WITH SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS
LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IN THERE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
VERY COLD AND THEN MODIFY WITH TIME WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT N OF KCMX IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO...RESULTING IN MVFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. TODAY...AREA OF -SN WILL STREAK ESE THRU THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NRN EXTENT OF
-SN...IT APPEARS KIWD/KSAW WILL SEE SOME -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
KIWD/KSAW...AND LIGHT UPSLOPE S/SE WINDS AT KSAW COULD EVEN RESULT
IN CIGS FALLING TO IFR THIS EVENING. -SN MAY STAY S OF KCMX...SO FOR
NOW...PLAN TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX THRU THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME FLURRIES FOR A FEW HRS LATE IN THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS





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