Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 011148
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
748 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING IS SHOWING THE CONTINUED EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH/SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED ACROSS THE AREA
YESTERDAY. IR IMAGERY IS SHOWING LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. WITH RADAR IMAGERY SURFACE OBS INDICATING
DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS AND FOG...MAINLY OVER THE FAR EAST. UPSTREAM
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR...POISED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE U.P. TODAY ALLOWING SURFACE
RIDGING TO EXPAND. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT WHILE ALLOWING
AMPLE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE U.P. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN U.P. EARLY THIS MORNING...WHERE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE
IN THE FORECAST. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING AS INSOLATION
INCREASES AND THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER TODAY WITH THE INCREASED SUNSHINE.
AREAS NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE OVER THE EAST...WILL STILL BE
A BIT COOL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH
ONSHORE FLOW. THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD
ALLOWING FAIRLY CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY PAINTING LOW 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...A FEW
MODELS AGAIN HAVE UPPER 30S FOR A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE INLAND
WEST...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. KEPT TEMPS AROUND 40
INLAND...INCLUDING THE EAST HALF TONIGHT...WITH THE REDUCTION OF
CLOUD COVER OVER THOSE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME SHORTWAVES IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z THU AND 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. A
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI WHICH REMAINS
OVER THE AREA INTO FRI NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO PUT IN
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR FRI AFTERNOON AS A FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES COULD COME INTO PLAY AND KICK OFF SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION DURING THE STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
HAVING A MENTION OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THEN AND THEN
CARRY THIS OVER TO FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THEN FOR WHEN FRONT COMES THROUGH
FRI NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION 12Z SAT WITH A STRONG AND BROAD TROUGH OVER SW CANADA
THAT IS TOPPING A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS
ALSO A DIEING SFC COLD FRONT NEAR THE U.P. ON SATURDAY AS DEPICTED
BY THE MANUAL PROGS AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THIS FOR
LAKE BREEZE PRONE AREAS. THE TROUGH IN SW CANADA MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES 12Z SUN AND THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND MOVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO TUE. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND THEN WITH TROUGHING STILL OVER THE AREA
FOR TUE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN LAKE BREEZE ZONES STILL LOOKS LIKE A
POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BECOME VFR. KSAW MAY
SEE LOW CEILINGS FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z/01.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY MID
MORNING AS MUCH DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC


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