Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 192352

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
652 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

High pressure ridge drifting eastward this evening, and light and
variable winds will slowly become more east/southeasterly overnight.
Diurnal cumulus clouds out there will diminish before sunset...and
mostly clear skies will dominate the evening hours.  However, a
system to the SW will generate some mid/high level clouds that will
drift into place after midnight and obscure much of the morning sky.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Shortwave energy over the Panhandle of Texas will swing east
northeast into the Midwest on Friday bringing an increase in cloud
cover along with rain chances, especially to south central and
southeast Illinois into early Friday evening. Models have trended
a bit further north with the weak lift and moisture, but right
into the middle of the surface high which is forecast to be
positioned over the lower Great Lakes. Highest rain chances, still
in the chance category, will be mainly south of I-72 tomorrow with
rain chances being mainly confined to extreme southeast IL during
Friday evening as the weak upper wave shifts off to our east.

Upper level heights will begin to build in response to upstream
troughing over the West Coast. This will allow for a warming trend
into early next week, with temperatures within a degree or two of 80
during the Sunday thru Tuesday time frame. The next chance for
showers and thunderstorms will push into our western counties late
Monday night and with the main longwave trof to our west and several
pieces of energy ejecting northeast along a stalled frontal boundary
to our west, we are looking at daily chances for showers through the
remainder of the week. Medium range models now suggest the main
western U.S. trof will not affect our area until later next weekend
suggesting the unsettled, but warm weather pattern will hold thru
the last few days of May.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 00Z TAF valid time. However, it
appears that many of the TAF sites may see a few sprinkles or
light rain showers during the day tomorrow as a weather
disturbance brushes by the area. In any event, the rainfall will
not be significant and shouldn`t produce MVFR conditions. Easterly
winds should persist though the period, generally below 10 kts.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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