Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 280833
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
233 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 233 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Average to above average confidence in the short term due to
decent model agreement.

At the time of this writing, scattered showers were making their
way across much of our CWA as upper level energy taps into ever
increasing deep layer moisture.

Precipitation chances will increase across the region today as
stronger upper level energy taps into deeper moisture ahead of an
approaching cold front. The highest probability for precipitation
will begin late this morning and continue through the afternoon
hours. The front is expected to enter the far western sections of
our CWA early this afternoon and clear the far southeast sections
before midnight tonight. Precipitation chances will begin to
diminish from west to east this afternoon into the evening with the
passage of the front. Storm total rainfall with this event is
expected to be one to two inches, with the highest amounts over
parts of far southeast Missouri and far western Kentucky.

After a brief respite on Tuesday, the approach and passage of yet
another surface trough/front will combine with weak ripples of
energy in the southwest flow aloft to produce scattered showers
mainly over the southeast half of our CWA starting Tuesday evening
and ending by early Wednesday morning. Due to a relative lack of
moisture, only light precipitation amounts are expected. In the wake
of this system, high pressure at the surface is expected to keep
the region dry through the end of the period.

Temperatures through Tuesday night will be above normal, then
drop back to near normal by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 233 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

The long term forecast starts off with average confidence resulting
from decent overall model agreement. However, confidence plunges by
the weekend as substantial model variability comes into play.

Starting with Thursday, the forecast area will be on the south side
of a deep upper level low centered over southeastern Canada. This
low will continue to push eastward, allowing cool Canadian high
pressure to settle into the region. The end result will be a period
of dry weather with seasonably cool temperatures. The only concern I
have at the moment is that the model blend may be overly optimistic
with the cloud forecast over northern and eastern portions of the
area Thursday and Thursday night. If later model forecasts look
anything like the latest GFS, we may end up having to increase sky
cover during this time frame.

Models are not in very good agreement with the split flow pattern
that develops over the weekend. The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian all
depict a closed upper low over the southwestern U.S. on Friday. The
ECMWF brings the low across Texas Saturday night with strong
cyclogenesis over the Mississippi Valley by Sunday. This would
result in a good chance for rain by the latter half of the weekend.

Meanwhile, the GFS and Canadian hold the cut-off low over the Gulf
of California for a couple days before ejecting east across the
southern Plains early next week. Given the uncertainty, the current
forecast represents a blend of the two schools of thought, with low
rain chances arriving to much of the area Saturday night and Sunday.
However, I would not place much confidence in this at the moment as
there are bound to be many changes to the extended forecast in the
coming days as models attempt to come to some kind of consensus.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1149 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

The first band of light showers is currently moving through the
region with little impact, but by morning at least MVFR conditions
with more substantial showers are expected. 40kt of southerly
winds off the surface will lead to low-level wind shear where
surface winds are not gusting overnight. By daybreak the south
winds should be gusting to 20kts at all sites.

There may be a morning lull in the rain intensity, especially at
KCGI, but IFR or lower conditions in rain are expected everywhere
through the afternoon. Lots of evidence that there will be a
north/south oriented fine line of the most intense showers that
will move through the area in the late afternoon and evening.
Treated it with a 2-3 hour TEMPO group. Winds will crank up
through the day and gust into the mid and upper 20s.

A wind shift to the southwest will mark the end of the precipitation,
but the winds will continue to be gusty well into the evening.
MVFR or lower ceilings may linger through the end of the period at
KEVV and KOWB, but there should be a much crisper clearing trend
farther southwest.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS



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