Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 181149
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
649 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Scattered mainly light showers continue to stream east northeast
across west Kentucky and even southwest Indiana. This activity may
linger past sunrise, but figure that measurable rain will be
fairly isolated and confined to the far southeast corner of the
forecast area at 12Z. All shower activity should be done by 15Z.

Most guidance indicates that the low clouds will slowly push
southeast out of the area through the day, but as a mid-level
low/trough pushes southeast into the region and the surface high
deepens, the 00Z NAM develops some shallow instability beneath a
mid-level inversion. This is sure to keep quite a bit of cloud
cover across the region, and a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out.
Southeast Missouri is likely to see the most sunshine and a few
locations over there may just reach 70 degrees. Elsewhere, we will
have to settle for 60s.

The pressure gradient will relax tonight, so with clearing skies
and light winds, we could find more of the area into the upper
40s for lows. Stayed at or below the consensus of guidance for
lows tonight. Much of the area will see quite a bit of sunshine
Thursday, but the northeast winds will continue, and clouds will
be on the increase from the southwest by midday. Low-mid 70s look
good for highs, which will feel like a major heat wave after the
last few days.

The 00Z models seem to be realizing just how stable this surface
high is, and are keeping surface development with our next storm
system farther south/southeast of the area Thursday night and
Friday. This could keep the associated precipitation to our
southeast as well, or at least confine it to our Kentucky and
Indiana counties.

The GFS brings a swath of precipitation northeast across the far
southeast corner of the region late Thursday night and Friday,
while the NAM and ECMWF have precipitation into southeast Missouri
late Thursday night and over all of Kentucky and Indiana Friday.
The GEM has not caught onto the southeast shift of the
precipitation shield, and keeps the entire area wet.

The PoP/Wx/QPF forecast was shifted to the southeast, but we
still have decent chance PoPs in the northwest. There is little
instability to be found in the models, so we have removed all
thunder with this event. Hopefully, the models will not go right
back to the old track.

With the clouds and potential precipitation, Thursday night should
be rather mild with lows near the level of yesterday`s highs.
Friday will be highly dependent on the precipitation, so highs
will struggle to get to 70 over much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

The medium range models were in good agreement overall with the
highly amplified mid/upper pattern over the CONUS. There may be
lingering showers in the eastern half of the PAH forecast region
Friday night, but beyond that, most of the extended period forecast
is dry.

A mid level shortwave is progged to swing through our region late on
Saturday. As low level flow will be generally out of the northeast,
models indicate the lack of deep moisture will preclude measurable
pcpn; just some cloudiness is expected.

Right on the heels of that feature, mid/upper winds are progged to
turn right out of the north over our region as a weak Rex block sets
up. Under surface high pressure, dry clear weather is forecast for
us through Monday, with a gradual warming trend to slightly above
seasonable temperatures.

By Day 7 (Tuesday), there may be enough moist return flow, along
with mid level shortwave energy ejecting out a western CONUS
longwave trof, to trigger showers and tstms across at least the
western half of our region. The models certainly indicate there will
be adequate instability for lightning.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 649 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Ceilings near 1kft may linger for a few hours at KOWB this
morning. It looks like there will be a thick cu field developing
by late morning, with ceilings a good bet at KEVV and KOWB. They
may initially be at MVFR levels, but should lift to VFR by this
afternoon. Cannot rule out some sprinkles with these cu through
the afternoon. Skies should clear throughout the area this
evening, and some light fog cannot be ruled out toward sunrise at
KPAH, and especially KCGI.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS



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