Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 280838
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
338 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Quieter weather expected today, with the strong low from the past
2 days now well off over eastern Ontario, and only lingering
cyclonic flow to keep mostly cloudy skies and some snow showers
going during the day today. The steep low level lapse rates will
be enhanced by some weak shortwaves to aid the snow shower
development. Have kept pops pretty low as confidence in coverage
and placement is pretty low. The clouds will keep temperatures on
the cool side once again, with highs only in the mid 30s to mid
40s. Tonight a clearing trend can be expected, with the main
question being timing, which in turn affects how cold we will get.
Have nudged temperatures down somewhat, getting into the teens to
low 20s over much of the Arrowhead. Saturday temperatures finally
begin recovering back towards normal values, but will still be 5
to 10 degrees below normals for this time of year. Sunshine will
favor warmer temperatures, but the north flow and lingering cold
air advection are less favorable. Highs should get into the mid
30s to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Saturday night and much of Sunday morning will be dry across the
Northland, thanks to some remaining low-amplitude mid-level ridging.
However, clouds will be on the increase ahead of a potentially
significant storm system that is slated to advance through the
region Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

This system will be supported by a large mid- to upper-level
longwave trough, which will bring deep lifting with it, as indicated
by progged upper-level divergence and mid-level isentropic upglide.
The associated sfc low pressure center will track from the OK/AR
region early Sunday morning, towards the central and northern
portions of Wisconsin by Monday evening. Moisture appears to have
increased from previous model runs, with Pwat values over Price and
Sawyer counties over 1 inch, according to the 28.00z GFS. The
overall consensus of the synoptic models is to lift the
precipitation shield north by Sunday afternoon as the inverted
trough of the sfc low moves overhead, with the heaviest
precipitation being Monday morning and into the afternoon. The
cyclonic circulation around the sfc low will help to bring
northeasterly winds over the region, which will be favorable for
stronger gusts, especially along adjacent locations of Lake
Superior. The 28.00z GFS/NAM model soundings continue to indicate
that the primary precipitation types associated with this system
will be a rain/snow mixture. However, some freezing rain or sleet
can`t be ruled out at this point, especially Sunday night and Monday
morning. Guidance is starting to lock onto snow accumulation
amounts, but there is still much uncertainty with these amounts, so
it`s a bit too early to mention specific snow amounts. However,
several inches of accumulation will be possible. At this time, the
SREF ensemble snow probabilities are indicating the corridor of the
most likely snow accumulation will be from the Brainerd Lakes area,
northeast towards the Iron Range. Moreover, the heaviest QPF amounts
are expected to fall Monday morning, which will make for a messy
Monday morning commute. Those with travel plans for late Sunday and
Monday will want to stay tuned for future updates. Chances of
precipitation with this system will linger over the western Lake
Superior area through Tuesday morning as the sfc low pressure center
lifts northeast.

Beyond Tuesday, the weather looks to dry up through Wednesday as
subtle mid-level ridging moves overhead. The GFS/ECMWF/CMC models
appear to disagree with possible chances of precipitation for
Wednesday, so just leaned towards the consensus blends POPs for now.
Temperatures look to rebound through the rest of the week as sfc
high pressure develops over Ontario Canada, and brings in some warm
air advection on southerly return flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

An upper level low over northwest Ontario will continue to lift
northeast tonight but cyclonic flow and colder temperatures will
remain over the region. These conditions will keep clouds around the
area through much of the period. Mainly MVFR or low VFR ceilings are
expected through the period, although there will be some brief
clearing that impacts KBRD tonight. A better chance for VFR
conditions and scattered clouds will occur Friday afternoon into the
evening hours as low level ridging develops.

There will be some light snow overnight into Friday, especially
across far northern Minnesota.

The wind will increase Friday as mixing increases mid to late
morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  26  48  30 /  10   0   0  10
INL  41  20  53  28 /  20   0   0   0
BRD  46  25  54  32 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  46  24  51  32 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  44  26  47  29 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JTS
AVIATION...Melde/JTS


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