Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 160006
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
706 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Concern for short term is showers and thunderstorm chances.

Current surface analysis indicates showers and thunderstorms over
most of northeast MN except north of the Iron range. However, the
precipitation will move into that area by 21z. This rain is
associated with strong WAA/moisture advection into the region out
ahead of a surface trough extending north from a low in the
central plains. This low will be the focus for the forecast
through the short term.

After this area of rain moves off to the northeast, a strong
shortwave wil move across mn overnight brining another shot of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Most areas will receive
between 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain. The rain areas will be
progressive and not train like yesterday. The chances for rain
decreases Saturday morning before another round of thunderstorms
develop in the afternoon. SPC has the region in a marginal risk so
there is a possibility of severe weather with them.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

A fairly active weather pattern will build across the Northland,
with temperatures rising to above seasonal averages next week.

Saturday night into Sunday morning looks to have the best chances of
precipitation for the extended forecast period as a rather deep
shortwave trough advances eastward through the Dakotas and into our
neck of the woods, along with an associated sfc cold front. High
chances of showers and thunderstorms will result from this shortwave
given the isentropic upglide ahead of the wave, along with a strong
positive vorticity maxima. Some high elevated instability is progged
to be collocated with the shortwave, with MUCAPE values ranging
between 1500 to 2500 J/kg between the GFS and NAM models. There is a
Marginal Risk of severe weather during this time, mainly south of a
line from Aitkin to Castle Danger to Ironwood, mainly for hail and
damaging winds. The frontal boundary will move off to the east after
daybreak Sunday morning, leading to a dry Sunday afternoon, along
with decreasing clouds.

High pressure will then build into the region Sunday night and
Monday, bringing a brief respite from precipitation before a small
chance of showers arrives Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. The
culprit appears to be another shortwave, which appears to be quite
weak. Southerly return flow from the sfc high pressure will bring
warmer temperatures for Tuesday through Friday, with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s expected across the Northland. Then, better
chances of showers and storms move in Tuesday night and Wednesday as
a more potent shortwave moves into the region. Deep lift will be
associated with this system, with upper-level divergence associated
with the wave. These chances will persist, but mainly late Thursday
into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

A slow moving frontal boundary will be the focus for showers and
thunderstorms throughout the period. Low clouds and fog can be
expected at the KDLH TAF site through the night, and perhaps
lingering into Saturday as well. The remainder of the northeast
Minnesota TAF sites will see areas of MVFR or even IFR CIG`s and
VSBY`s. We are expecting the most widespread VFR conditions in the
KHYR area as they will be in the warm sector for much of the
time. We could even see LIFR/VLIFR at KDLH overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  72  51  61 /  60  70  80  10
INL  52  64  46  56 /  90  50  50  10
BRD  63  70  48  61 /  50  50  40   0
HYR  63  79  54  64 /  50  70  80  10
ASX  59  80  55  65 /  40  70  80  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stewart
LONG TERM...JTS
AVIATION...DAP



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