Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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126
FXUS63 KDLH 272005
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
305 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

A compact but strong upper-level low was centered over just north
of the International Border in northwest Ontario. Scattered
showers had developed over portions of central, north-central, and
northeast Minnesota during the past few hours. A couple
thunderstorms were noted over Beltrami and southwest Koochiching
Counties and north of St. Louis County in northwest Ontario. The
showers and storms were moving south to southeasterly at about 15
mph. Expect additional thunderstorm development through late
afternoon and early evening before decaying with the setting sun.
High pressure at the surface will be in the driver seat for the
overnight and Friday. Dry conditions and seasonally warm
temperatures are anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

The Northland will be under a northwest to, at times, west-
northwest flow aloft through the period. There will be several
opportunities for showers and storms with chances for severe
dependent on whether or not any stronger shortwaves move through
the Northland. High temperatures will be at or a few degrees above
normal through most of the period.

A weak upper ridge and surface high will keep the Northland dry
Friday night into much of Saturday. We have a chance for
showers/storms Saturday night into Sunday as a weak trough of low
pressure moves over or near the region. The GFS has a stronger
shortwave versus the ECMWF with the Canadian a compromise. Small
chances for showers/storms will continue Sunday night and Monday
over portions of the Northland but organized strong storms look
unlikely at this time.

There may be an opportunity for stronger storms Tuesday as
instability increases. If a stronger shortwave ends up moving
through the Northland at the right time in northwest flow aloft,
severe storms would be more likely. At this time, the ECMWF
doesn`t show much of a wave aloft with the GFS indicating a weak
one.

We continue low POPS Wednesday into Thursday over portions of the
Northland, with mainly weak features affecting the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

A shortwave moving through northern Minnesota into northern
Wisconsin today will cause an increase in clouds and showers and
thunderstorms. Showers were forming early this afternoon and we
expect them to continue and expand in coverage with some
thunderstorms developing. Mainly VFR conditions will occur but
brief MVFR or even IFR will occur under the stronger storms.

The clouds will diminish tonight and winds will be light leading
to some fog. The fog will drop conditions to IFR or even LIFR in
spots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  79  56  80 /  30   0   0  10
INL  54  82  58  82 /  10   0   0  10
BRD  58  81  59  81 /  20   0   0  10
HYR  55  81  54  81 /  20   0   0   0
ASX  54  78  54  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde



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