Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 220542
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1242 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

AT 330 PM...IT WAS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA. THE LARGEST AREA
OF RAIN WAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EAST OF INTERNATIONAL
FALLS. OTHER ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAD POPPED UP BUT WERE HAVING
A TOUGH TIME HOLDING TOGETHER. AS A RESULT...IT WAS MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS THE CWA WITH CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MOST PART.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH THIS TYPE OF SUMMER PATTERN...THE MODELS ARE
HAVING A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING VARIOUS PRECIPITATION EVENTS. NO
MODEL HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND NONE OF THE
MODELS HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY PRODUCTS ACTUALLY DO NOT LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE FOR TONIGHT...BUT STILL THINK THERE IS AT LEAST ENOUGH
OF A CHANCE FOR HAVING SCATTERED WORDING IN FOR THE NIGHT. WITHIN
THE LAST HOUR...THERE HAS BEEN NEW CONVECTION JUST W/SW OF THE
TWIN CITIES...AND ANOTHER AREA IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WE COULD
SEE FURTHER SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HAVE BACKED OFF FROM LIKELY
WORDING THOUGH...AS THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY FROM A
FULL BLOWN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT. SPC HAS SHIFTED OUR SEVERE
THREAT A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH...SO ONLY LOOKING AT MAYBE A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.

THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE AREA WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL POPS...BUT LITTLE FORCING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S BUT WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE WE
COULD SEE SOME 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN EXISTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PRECEDING THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHLAND. THE SLOW MOVING LOW WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA BY LATE MONDAY WITH A BREAK FROM THE MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE TUESDAY THOUGH THURSDAY
FORECAST HAVE THE MODELS COMING IN ON BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO FAVOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND AS OF LATE EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT IN
FOG/STRATUS. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING...AND CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT AS WELL. SOME AREAS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND WAS PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WANE OVERNIGHT
WITH A FEW POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD FRIDAY
AND THAT SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MORE FOG/STRATUS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  71  60  74 /  10  40  60  60
INL  56  75  59  72 /  10  50  60  60
BRD  61  75  62  78 /  10  60  60  50
HYR  61  78  64  80 /  10  50  60  60
ASX  59  72  61  77 /  10  30  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ142>146.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...MELDE






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