Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 021758
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1258 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM ARE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TODAY/TUESDAY AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. ONE OF THE CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. RH VALUES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 20-25% RANGE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 IN NE MN AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
REST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING 25-35% RH VALUES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NE LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND NW WI TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS NW WI WITH MUCAPES
IN THE 300-500 RANGE SO WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NW WI FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE
25-35% RANGE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AND A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS NORTH INTO
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHLAND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SWEPT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AS WELL IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS MAINLY IRON COUNTY WHERE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY.

MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND SIXTY IN THE BRAINERD LAKES TO THE
FIFTIES MOST OTHER AREAS. INCREASING WAA AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS LOOK
RATHER DRY...BUT MOST OF THE MODELS DO DEPICT SOME LIGHT PRECIP. WE
ADDED SOME SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT DID NOT GO TOO HIGH BASED ON THE DRY
AIRMASS. IF THE DRY AIRMASS IS OVERDONE...WE WILL NEED TO EXPAND
POPS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES...THEN
MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE SEVENTIES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS RISING TO
AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE
SOUTHWEST...BUT IT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG...SO AFTERNOON LAKE
BREEZES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME FAIR-WEATHER CU WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 5-7KFT
IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND LIGHT TO NEAR CALM AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SKIES CLEAR
OUT TONIGHT...WITH A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME BREEZY
TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 35 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  43  65  36 /  10  10  20  10
INL  67  43  62  34 /  10  10  10   0
BRD  66  45  68  40 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  65  42  66  37 /  10  10  70  20
ASX  62  40  63  37 /  10  10  60  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...JJM



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