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000
FXUS63 KDLH 041130
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
530 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT HAS BROUGHT A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE A VERY WEAK INVERTED
SFC TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED FROM SW MN INTO SW ONTARIO. LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES TO FALL OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE NWRN KOOCH CO.
SFC TEMPS RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHWEST TO
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN MOST OF THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

TODAY...LARGE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER CTRL ONTARIO SUPPRESSING
FRNTL BDRY SOUTH OF REGION. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE
INTO THE NERN CWA LATER THIS MORNING. CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL LINGER
FROM THE SERN WISC ZONES WNW TOWARDS THE LOWER ST CROIX VALLEY.
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS 1 TO 3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN CONSMOS...CARRYING
OVER YESTERDAYS COLD BIAS.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW...QUIET PATTERN OVERALL AS SFC HIGH OVER ONTARIO
INTENSIFIES AND SHIFTS SOUTH. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER ANTICYCLONIC
BDRY LYR FLOW TONIGHT BEFORE THE ORIENTATION OF THE SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN CHANGES WEDNESDAY. MID LVL CLOUDS MAY BE TOUGH TO CLEAR
OUT OF THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. A SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS SRN
MANITOBA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT AN INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MN PART OF THE CWA. FCST
SNDGS AND MDL TIME/HEIGHT XSECTS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WED EVENING. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER OVER WRN CWA IN WAA
REGIME WHILE ARROWHEAD TO TWIN PORTS IS INFLUENCED BY PRONOUNCED
WEDGE IN LOW LVL THERMAL FIELDS PRODUCED BY LARGE SFC HIGH OVER
ONTARIO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM  CST TUE MAR 4 2014

A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE FA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY TRY TO PUSH A WARM
FRONT THROUGH NE MN WEDNESDAY NIGHT REACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER BY
18Z THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT IN THE WAA ZONE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH. A
COLD FRONT FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
GENERATE MORE LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FA THURSDAY. WENT WITH A MODEL COMPROMISE FOR POPS AS MODELS DIFFER
GREATLY IN THE AMOUNT OF FORCING/MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE FA
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL END THE SNOW FROM W TO E FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IS IN CHARGE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY RETURN AND HAVE USED A
COMPROMISE FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NW WI SOON. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AFTER THE SNOW DEPARTS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE NEARBY
THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  -3  16   2 /  10   0  10  20
INL  15 -10  19   6 /  10   0  10  40
BRD  18  -1  22  10 /  10  10  10  20
HYR  20  -4  22   2 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  18  -4  18   3 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF