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000
FXUS63 KDLH 030022
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
622 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

WE ADDED SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE FORECAST AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT...WE`VE HAD A COUPLE REPORTS AT SILVER BAY AND IN DULUTH
OF A MIX OR JUST LIGHT RAIN CLOSE THE LAKE WHERE TEMPS ARE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER. WE ALSO INCREASED POPS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
STORM SYSTEM COMING IN AS EXPECTED. CURRENT SFC LOW OVER SERN SD
WITH WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN MN. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ONGOING
NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW..WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHLAND.
WE`LL CONTINUE TO SEE WAVE AFTER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
SNOW...AS THE UPPER TROF REMAINS TO OUR WEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VERY STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIFT
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE IN ADDITION TO THE ADDED  FROM THE 100 KT
UPPER JET JUST SOUTH OF MN. WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECT THE SNOW AREA TO BLOSSOM
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SO PUT A WARNING FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THAT AREA. OPTED TO KEEP
ADVISORY GOING ELSEWHERE AS EXPECT ONLY A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT. THEN WE EXPECT A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. IT IS THIS TIME PERIOD WHERE WE COULD SEE THE HEAVIEST
SNOW AREA WITH MAJOR LIFT EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

LARGE WINTER STORM WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN
GREAT LAKES AREA TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...WITH LARGE AMOUNTS LIKELY ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE FROM THE TWIN PORTS TO GRAND MARAIS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS
UP OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND LIFTS TO THE E/NE. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH
WILL EXTEND NWD FROM ERN KS INTO SE MN/SW WI. A TROWAL WILL EXTEND
FROM THE CNTRL GRT LKS BACK TO THE NW INTO NRN MN. THE COMBINATION
OF THIS TROWAL...STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...A 140 KT UPPER JET
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP...WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE THE NORTH SHORE. THESE
AMTS WILL PUT STORM TOTALS OVER THE FOOT MARK FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND CLOSE TO TWO FEET THROUGH THE ELEVATED AREAS OF THE
ARROWHEAD. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON AND WED NIGHT WILL
LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS...BEFORE A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON THURSDAY. THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND DRIVE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FLOOR. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR FALL
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MORNING AROUND 5 TO
10...AND DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO THUR
NIGHT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE +5...AND PLUMMET
INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO FRI NIGHT. THE COLD CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY WX. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE WRN EDGE OF LOCAL
LAKES.

THE VERY COLD TEMPS...COMBINED WITH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

IFR...AND POTENTIALLY SOME LIFR...CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF SNOW. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS INITIAL
SURGE...IF IT KEEPS IT`S CURRENT PROGRESS NORTH...SHOULD ARRIVE IN
KBRD AROUND 04Z. WE KEPT VSBY REDUCTIONS ALL AREAS THOUGH TONIGHT
AS THERE SHOULD BE FOG. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
ELSEWHERE AS WELL LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN
ANOTHER SURGE OF SNOW WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT AT
KBRD/KHYR AS WE LOST MOISTURE FROM THE TOP DOWN. WE LEFT THAT OUT
OF THE TAFS ATTM...AS WE THINK COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  31  25  26 / 100  80  90  60
INL  19  25  12  16 /  90  80  90  70
BRD  28  32  19  24 / 100  80  80  60
HYR  27  34  25  28 /  80  70  80  70
ASX  27  34  28  32 /  90  70  80  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018-019-025-026-033>036-038.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     MNZ020-021-037.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ001-006.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ002>004-
     007>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LSZ144-145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140>143.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MELDE