224
FXUS63 KDLH 272347
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
647 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several opportunities for isolated to scattered strong to
  severe thunderstorms tonight through Sunday evening. A few may
  be strong/severe

- Tonight/early Sat AM the main threat is damaging wind gusts.
 Saturday and sunday risks include large hail, damaging wind
 gusts, and a few tornadoes.

- Heavy rain may lead to flash flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Plenty of low clouds and lingering drizzle this afternoon
associated with a departing low pressure system that continues
its eastward trek. Cloud cover is causing high temperatures to
underachieve, so lowered highs a few degrees to account for
that. Some clearing expected as we move into the late afternoon
over NW to N Central MN with overall light winds. Take advantage
as we go into an active pattern starting tonight.

A fast moving shortwave trough is rapidly advance across MT and
into ND/SD this evening. As this feature moves east, we expect
thunderstorm development to erupt across western ND and into
central/western SD. These storms will be tracking eastward into
central MN late tonight. We`ve been watching EML capping over
northern MN, which will keep CI unlikely until the storms
associated with this shortwave move in, tapping into elevated
instability and favorable shear. CAMs have shown storms entering
into the CWA from west to east roughly south of a highway 2
line, most likely as an MCS, around 3-5am, and pushing east.
Wind and hail will be the main concerns with this system
especially as it enters the area. Storms quickly move out of
favorable instability, weakening as they move through, moving
out of the CWA by roughly dawn.

Once the morning`s thunderstorm complex moves out, a warm front
will surge northward, pulling in higher dew points. Afternoon
temps will hinge on how quickly the morning`s clouds clear, but
most areas should warm into the 80s. This sets the stage for an
unstable environment across MN/WI. A 40-50kt mid level jet, 2-3k
J/KG MUCAPE and PW values of 1.75"+ will be allow for deep
convection capable of all threat: wind, hail, a tornado and
heavy rain. The question will be how far north will the threat
extend to our area. Multiple impulses embedded with the mid-
level flow, and lingering boundaries should be enough to spark
late afternoon thunderstorms across central MN, but how far
north they go will be dependent on how the buoyancy gradients
play out from tonight`s convection. Right now, the main threat
is across southern MN, but that may change, and mesoanalysis
Saturday will be key.

Front passes through late Saturday night, causing isolated
storms to be possible early in the day Sunday, however there is
differences in where storms set up. Any threat for strong to
severe storms looks like it could be limited to western WI where
the better moisture profile sets up.

A passing trough is expected to produce showers and
thunderstorms on Monday. Coverage of these may be somewhere
between scattered and widespread with plenty of synoptic forcing
and of course the diurnal convective component. This looks like
a low CAPE and low shear environment, so severe weather is not
expected, but it will probably be a day of some sunshine and
dodging passing showers and storms. Highs cool a bit from the
weekend, but should still be in the 70s to around 80.

Tuesday and Wednesday, it`s looking like we`ll be under the
influence of west/northwest flow, sitting between cooler air up
north and ridging redeveloping to our west. There could be some
weak upper-level waves passing through that could introduce some
rain/storm chances, perhaps later Wednesday into Thursday,
though that remains pretty uncertain. We`ll probably see some
periods of quiet weather and sunshine with occasional rain
chances.

Later in the week, it looks like the broad ridging may inch its
way east a bit, but it looks like there could very well be some
embedded upper level waves that could bring more rain/storm
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Generally VFR conditions across the area this evening, with an
area of stratus that drops to MVFR in places. The stratus should
gradually dissipate and slide east this evening, with all sites
returning to VFR by no later than 03z. Thunderstorms are
developing over central North Dakota this evening, while will
slide east-southeast this evening and overnight. These may take
a track that affects some or all of the terminals after 08z,
with the highest probability at KBRD, getting MVFR conditions.
The other terminals should at least get some mid cloud and
scattered showers during the early morning hours of Saturday.
Once these storms move out again Saturday morning, new storms
are expected to develop after 20z Saturday, most likely
affecting KBRD and KHYR.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 422 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Beach Hazard Statement in effect until 10 PM for beaches around
Park Point and Wisconsin Point as waves are still at 2-3 feet.
Waves will be decreasing through the evening as wind has become
overall southerly and light. Wind becomes northeasterly on
Saturday with gusts to 15 kt. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible on Saturday evening with some strong to severe storms
capable of producing large hail and temporary gusty and erratic
winds greater than 30kt.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LR
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LR