Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 140549
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1249 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.1248 AM AVIATION UPDATE AT BOTTOM

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

EVENING UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE SKY COVER THIS EVENING. FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRANSLATING OVER THE
NORTHLAND...MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAY BREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

AT 315PM/2015Z...THERE WAS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS/IOWA AREA. A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...WITH ITS SUBTLE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. A SHORTWAVE WAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MOVING TO THE
EAST...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
MOVING TO THE SE. THE NORTHLAND HAD PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 15 MPH. THE STRONGER FLOW WAS
OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THERE WAS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF ABOUT
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN NW MINNESOTA AND THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S.

THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY
SEE 20 TO 25 MPH WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 30 MPH.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT AND
SHORTWAVES WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BOLSTERED BY
THE MIXING FROM THE SOUTHERLY WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH AND THE HEAVIER
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER 40S...BUT COULD BE LOWER IN SOME AREAS
WHERE IT IS CLEARER AND WITH LIGHTER WIND.

SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE EAST NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA/CANADA BORDER.
THERE COULD BE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THE
LATE MORNING. THE LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH THE WARMER CONDITIONS OVER NW WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

MODELS MAINTAIN STRONG CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST THIS PERIOD.
MID LVL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PREDOMINANT NW FLOW WITH A FEW
WEAK MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROFS. AFTER AN INITIAL DOSE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD SUNDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH WILL PROGRESS SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BDRY APPROACHES THE NRN
CWA. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE/SFC CONVERGENCE WITH THIS LOW LVL BDRY.
WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS NEAR BORDERLAND BEHIND FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE
ON LOW SIDE. LIKEWISE WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH EARLY WED
MORNING A BRIEF PERIOD OF TERRAIN LIFT MAY DEVELOP ALONG NORTH
SHORE. OTHERWISE A REINFORCING SFC HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO
WED NIGHT/THURSDAY. COOLER NEAR LAKE WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AS MESOHIGH DEVELOPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A WAA REGIME WILL
COMMENCE THUR AFTN AND STRENGTHEN THUR NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. MID LVL FLOW WITHIN MDL SUITE STILL
ADVERTISING A RIDGE OVER THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY. NOT SURE ENOUGH
SATURATION OCCURS TO WARRANT PRECIP BY EARLY FRIDAY BUT WITH SOME
DIVERGENCE AMONGST MDLS WILL KEEP ALLBLEND LOW POPS SOLUTION.
GFS/EC/GEM SUPPORT WET WX OVER CWA DURING THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THEY
DIFFER MARKEDLY REGARDING TIMING/DURATION OF PRECIP. ECM MOST
PROGRESSIVE WITH GEM/GFS SUPPORTING HIGHER/LONGER DURATION POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A FAST MOVING LOW WILL TRANSLATE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHLAND...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST...AS WELL AS
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THROUGH DAYBREAK. MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 2-3 KFT ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE LOW CENTER...MAINLY AFFECTING
THE KINL TERMINAL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY AS THE LOW
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...AND THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW RESULTS IN DEEP
MIXING. THE UNSTABLE WRAP AROUND FLOW WILL ALSO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE BORDERLAND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  59  41  65 /  10   0   0  10
INL  39  58  39  63 /  20  10  10  10
BRD  40  60  40  67 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  39  59  37  65 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  44  58  40  65 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...STEWART






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