Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 272027
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
327 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH A
PROGRESSIVE MID LVL RIDGE. EXTENSIVE AREA OF SCT/BKN CU DEVELOPED
WITH DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SWRN CWA WHERE A
925/850 MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS FROM PREVIOUS FRONTAL BDRY. EXPECT A
DISSIPATION OF THIS CLOUD FIELD ONCE DIURNAL WARMING DECREASES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT TO ERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER DECOUPLED BDRY LYR. AREAS OF FOG
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN...THIS TIME OVER THE ERN CWA WHERE FCST SFC COND
PRESS DEFICITS.

TOMORROW...ACTIVE WX PATTERN ORGANIZES OVER THE CTRL PLAINS AS
SIGNIFICANT MID LVL TROF ADVECTS EAST INTO NEB/KS. A LLJ IMPINGING
ON A STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL BDRY WILL SETUP A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH 85H MSTR TRANSPORT DOES
INCREASE OVER THE CWA...IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE SLOWER TO OCCUR THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. LARGE ANTICYCLONIC
BDRY LYR FLOW COMBINED WITH ANTECEDENT DRIER AIR WILL MAINTAIN A
WEDGE OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LIMITED
INSTABILITY FCST...WITH SUPPORT FROM SREF CLOUD PHYSICS THUNDER
PARAMETER.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AFTER A COUPLE DRY DAYS...WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ENTERING A PATTERN
THAT IS MORE UNSETTLED AND WET. THERE ARE SOME PRETTY SERIOUS MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO MN THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE
LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. THE ECMWF AND NAM GENERALLY KEEP THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH THE TWIN PORTS BEING
ON THE EDGE OF THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS AND GEM
BRING A BIG BATCH OF PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH INTO THE BRAINERD
LAKES AND INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. AT THIS POINT WE FEEL THE ECMWF AND
NAM SOLUTIONS MAKE THE MOST SENSE...AND HAVE TRENDED OUR FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
THEN TREND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS NORTHERN MN
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL WE ARE LOOKING AT LIGHTER QPF
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES LOOK TO BE ENOUGH
TO MENTION A WARRANT OF A SLIGHT/CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. A
FAIRLY MAJOR SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WRAP UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. A NORTH TO SOUTH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A
BIT ON THE COOL SIDE.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAD DEVELOPED AS OF MIDDAY AND IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING. FOR A SHORT TIME...WE WILL SEE SOME LOCAL MVFR CIGS BUT
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WE SHOULD SEE CLOUD BASES RISE TO VFR. SOME
LOCAL FOG WILL THEN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE ON THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  69  57  70 /   0  10  40  20
INL  45  75  55  74 /   0  10  10  40
BRD  53  69  59  76 /   0  40  20  20
HYR  47  70  59  73 /   0  40  70  30
ASX  48  72  58  69 /   0  10  60  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP





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