Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 290551
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1251 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM KINL/KCDD INTO
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AS OF 0315Z. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE
SHOWS CAPE HAS BEEN DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WE EXPECT THE RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AREAS TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT AND MAY DIMINISH SOME IN COVERAGE. WE LEFT POPS HIGH IN
THE WEST...AND SLOWED THE PROGRESSION FURTHER EAST BASED ON THE
LATEST NAM/HRRR. WE ALSO DELAYED AND DIMINISHED POPS OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF AND BASED ON LATEST RADAR...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MAKE
THOSE ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY TRACK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
THIS EVENING...REACHING NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT...AND
FINALLY PASSING OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH
A STRENGTHENING SW LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
TONIGHT/FRIDAY TO CONVEY THE SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING.
LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SFC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE TWIN PORTS/ARROWHEAD AROUND DAY BREAK
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND LIFT INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.

NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY AS PROFILES BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED
WITH A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND PWAT VALUES AROUND AN INCH
AND A HALF. HAVE INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER NRN WISCONSIN. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY OF A
HALF INCH TO ONE INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH
AND A HALF.

SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 MPH. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FOR LOCATIONS IN WISCONSIN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

BY FRIDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN WI...AND BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA THAT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COOL WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER LEVELS WILL FEATURE
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS IS A VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE LEFT SOME VERY COLD AIR OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE FCST MODELS PREDICTING 8H TEMPS DOWN INTO THE
NEGATIVE NUMBERS. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEHIND
THE HIGH WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY IN THE
WEEK. WITH THE RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COMES A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK WHEN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE FLATTENING RIDGE. BY MIDWEEK THE RIDGE WILL
HAVE BUILT FARTHER EAST...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS TROUGH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARMER AND WET PERIOD AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO PLUMMET TO MVFR/IFR AFTER 10Z AS A
COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN MINNESOTA...
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHLAND. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME WIDESPREAD WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY FRIDAY... WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THE WEST BACK
TO VFR AFTER 20Z FOR KDLH/KHYR/KBRD/KHIB... AND AFTER 03Z SATURDAY
FOR KHYR.

A STRONG... BUT VERY SHALLOW INVERSION AT KDLH DUE TO LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STUBBORNLY REMAIN UNTIL
AFTER 14Z. THIS INVERSION WILL CAUSE THE SITE TO HAVE VERY LOW
CIGS/VIS AT TIME... AND LOW LEVEL SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY BECOME BROKEN... CREATING LIFR CONDITIONS RAPIDLY.
FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ALONG WITH LLWS UP TO 35 KTS AT 2000FT
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  58  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
INL  35  58  36  64 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  41  62  40  64 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  42  61  34  64 /  20   0   0   0
ASX  41  57  35  60 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...MCLOVIN







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