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000
FXUS63 KDLH 120541
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1141 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

AT 325PM/2125Z...THE NORTHLAND HAD CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WERE NEAR 0 DEGREES AND THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO. THERE WAS A SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA MOVING TO
THE SE... WHICH WAS RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA.

WHILE THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE IN MANITOBA
APPROACHES THE NORTHLAND...THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. I FORECASTED
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL AND MOS
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND PART OF THURSDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL READINGS OF 25 TO 40 BELOW ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING. I DO NOT THINK WE WILL
NEED A WIND CHILL WARNING...BUT SOME PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA MIGHT APPROACH WIND CHILL READINGS OF 40 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO.

THE SHORTWAVE IN MANITOBA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...THE ALREADY TERRIBLE ROADS ACROSS THE REGION COULD BE
MADE EVEN MORE SLIPPERY BY THE DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW.

THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES LOOK SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AS THE REALLY
COLD AIR MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHLAND. HIGHS WILL BE BACK WELL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND AND MAYBE LOW TEENS IN
THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. A PRONOUNCED LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DAKOTAS INTO
THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY NE MINNESOTA...DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

SOME MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. ECMWF IS DRY...NAM/GEM ARE THE WETTEST AND GFS IS IN
BETWEEN. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY UNDERCUTS A
SFC RIDGE AXIS. HIGHEST POPS/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE WITH A WNWLY FLOW. AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SWD FROM CANADA
FRIDAY...FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BECOMES NELY. GFS IS THE MOST
GENEROUS WITH QPF/SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...LESSER AMOUNTS FROM
THE OTHER MODELS AS THEY ARE DRIER IN THE 1000-900MB LAYER.
REGARDLESS...HAVE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. HAVE A SMALL
POP ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FA AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
UNDERCUTS THE HIGH. FRIDAY NIGHT FINDS THE FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ON
SATURDAY...THE FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TAKES ON A SLY DIRECTION
PUSHING THE HIGH POPS UP THE NORTH SHORE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD. MEANWHILE...A POTENT SHORT WAVE REACHES THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 00Z SUNDAY. KEPT THE POPS THAT WERE IN
PLACE. QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE
SOURCE. THE SHORTWAVE INCLUDES A CLOSED LOW SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS NEXT TO THE SFC REFLECTION MOVING OUT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. SUNDAY FINDS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER THE FA.
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SO POPS REFLECT A
BLENDED APPROACH ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. SUNDAY NIGHT THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FA AS A CLOSED LOW SETS UP OVER NW
ONTARIO. THIS LOW BECOMES VIRTUALLY STATIONARY AND SENDS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY OVER THE FA THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE POPS EACH PERIOD.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE LATER IN THE NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN
AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -13  11  -3   7 /  20  20  30  20
INL -22   4 -17  -2 /   0  20  20  10
BRD -13  14  -1   7 /  50  10  20  20
HYR -16  12   0  16 /  50  20  20  20
ASX -11  13   3  15 /  20  30  40  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-026-037.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ025-033>036-
     038.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP