Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 151555 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1055 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Issued at 1055 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Made some minor adjustments to the PoPs, sky cover and
temps/dew points for this morning and afternoon. Current GOES-16
visible satellite imagery shows some low clouds hanging around the
area as of 1545z, so adjusted sky cover accordingly. It does
appear that these clouds are starting to thin out a bit, but some
higher level clouds are moving in from the west ahead of a weak
shortwave that will bring small chances of showers to portions of
the region this afternoon. PoP updates were mainly to trim down
the northern extent as the latest convective-allowing models
indicate light precipitation extending from Grand Rapids to the
Twin Ports to Hayward, and points south of these areas for this
afternoon and evening.

UPDATE Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Updated for the new 12Z Aviation Discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

At 4 AM, rain continued across northeast Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin, while rain was ending across the western third of the
CWA. Temperatures were generally in the 30s to lower 40s.

The focus for today will be the low pressure system moving through
the Great Lakes region. The deformation zone helping to bring the
precipitation to our CWA will gradually pull off to the east
today, allowing the rain to end from west to east. Skies were
already clearing across the northwest part of the CWA, with clear
skies at International Falls. We will continue to see skies clear
from west to east, bringing a fair amount of sunshine to most
areas as the morning wears on.

While one system exits, another moves in, as a trough moves across
Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Will add mention of some
showers to the west early this afternoon, and to the western half
of the CWA during the remainder of the afternoon. Although the
chance of showers should diminish tonight, we could see some light
showers linger across the central and eastern portions of the CWA
during the evening.

Highs today will range from the mid 40s in the Arrowhead to the
upper 40s to lower 50s elsewhere.

Cloud cover will again decrease from west to east tonight, as high
pressure moves in behind the departing surface trough. Lows will
range from the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Monday is shaping up to be a quiet day, with partly to mostly
sunny skies. Highs will range from the lower 50s in the Arrowhead
to the mid to upper 50s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

The Northland will have a dry and relatively warm week. A low/mid-
level thermal ridge will build into the Northland Tuesday into early
Wednesday. A strong cold front, associated with a low well north in
Canada, will sweep through the Northland Wednesday afternoon and
evening, bringing a brief cool down for the middle of the week.
However, another wave of warm air will build into the region
Thursday into Saturday. This extended period of southerly flow will
bring 850 hpa temperatures to 15 to 18 degrees Celsius! Model
guidance for surface high temperatures may be too weighted towards
climatology. Increased the forecasts a bit over the previous
forecast. Highs will likely be in the middle to upper 60s for much
of the Northland late this week, about 15 degrees above seasonal

Another surface low in Canada will likely bring a cold front through
the Northland sometime Saturday. There could be very light rain with
its passage.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

There will be lingering light rain and low clouds in northwest
Wisconsin this morning as an area of low pressure moves through
the Great Lakes. Otherwise, VFR will return to all of the
Northland by later this morning. This morning`s light northwest
flow will become westerly this afternoon. An upper-level
disturbance will move in from the west this afternoon and evening,
bringing a period of ceilings around 10 kft and light showers.
There will be clearing tonight.


DLH  47  33  55  41 /  10  10   0   0
INL  48  27  58  38 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  49  33  59  40 /  30  20   0   0
HYR  49  33  57  39 /  50  20   0   0
ASX  51  34  57  42 /  60  10   0   0


LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ148.



LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Grochocinski is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.