Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 212057
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
357 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

AT 330 PM...IT WAS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA. THE LARGEST AREA
OF RAIN WAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EAST OF INTERNATIONAL
FALLS. OTHER ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAD POPPED UP BUT WERE HAVING
A TOUGH TIME HOLDING TOGETHER. AS A RESULT...IT WAS MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS THE CWA WITH CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MOST PART.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH THIS TYPE OF SUMMER PATTERN...THE MODELS ARE
HAVING A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING VARIOUS PRECIPITATION EVENTS. NO
MODEL HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND NONE OF THE
MODELS HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY PRODUCTS ACTUALLY DO NOT LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE FOR TONIGHT...BUT STILL THINK THERE IS AT LEAST ENOUGH
OF A CHANCE FOR HAVING SCATTERED WORDING IN FOR THE NIGHT. WITHIN
THE LAST HOUR...THERE HAS BEEN NEW CONVECTION JUST W/SW OF THE
TWIN CITIES...AND ANOTHER AREA IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WE COULD
SEE FURTHER SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HAVE BACKED OFF FROM LIKELY
WORDING THOUGH...AS THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY FROM A
FULL BLOWN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT. SPC HAS SHIFTED OUR SEVERE
THREAT A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH...SO ONLY LOOKING AT MAYBE A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.

THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE AREA WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL POPS...BUT LITTLE FORCING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S BUT WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE WE
COULD SEE SOME 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN EXISTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PRECEDING THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHLAND. THE SLOW MOVING LOW WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA BY LATE MONDAY WITH A BREAK FROM THE MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE TUESDAY THOUGH THURSDAY
FORECAST HAVE THE MODELS COMING IN ON BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO FAVOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AT THE WESTERN TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO LOW
END VFR CEILINGS BY AROUND 20Z. IFR CONDITIONS AT DLH WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
FOR A BRIEF AMOUNT OF TIME THOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT
IN THE FORECAST. IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER ALL AERODROMES BY 06Z
AND CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z WITH LOW VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  71  59  71 /  50  20  10  40
INL  59  76  56  75 /  50  30  10  50
BRD  61  80  61  75 /  30  10  10  60
HYR  64  82  61  78 /  40  20  10  50
ASX  59  73  59  72 /  50  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ142>146.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...KK






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