Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 280848

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
348 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

At 345 AM, skies remained cloudy across the Northland. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms were also continuing, with the most
numerous showers in the Minnesota Arrowhead. Areas of fog
persisted as well, especially across the southern portion of the
CWA, and near Lake Superior. Temperatures ranged from the mid 40s
near the lake, to the mid 60s in Phillips, WI.

The weather for today through Sunday will be fairly similar to
what it was on Friday, as another round of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to push in from the south. The model
guidance is all over the place in terms of placement and expected
amounts, but the mass fields generally point to an increase in
showers and thunderstorms as the day wears on. Could be a few
stronger storms, especially in northwest Wisconsin this afternoon.
Will generally continue with likely pops region-wide, but there
will undoubtedly be some breaks as well. Have also added the
mention of some drizzle along the with the fog, as it has been
fairly prevalent this morning so far.

The upper level low will swing through the region tonight and
Sunday, resulting in continued rain and thunderstorms tonight, and
shortwave ridging bringing drier weather for a short reprieve for
the end of the weekend and early in the upcoming week. Some
showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to linger into
tonight and Sunday.

Highs today and Sunday are expected to range from the 60s to the
70s, although it will be cooler near Lake Superior.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Sunday night and Monday quieter and warmer weather should return to
the area, with a weak shortwave ridge and westerly flow aloft, and
weak southwest flow at the surface.  Highs should rise into the 70s
for most locations, with some low 80s possible.

The next upper level shortwave moves east out of the Rockies to send
some chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning Monday night,
then continuing Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level wave moves
across the area.  The extra clouds and precipitation should bring
temperatures back down into the 60s and 70s.  Have kept pops fairly
high for now, but expect that we will still need to make adjustments
in the coming days.

Cooler weather will move into the area by Thursday, as the flow
behind the exiting upper level wave amplifies and sends some colder
air our direction.  High temperatures should only be in the 60s for
both Thursday and Friday, though warmer temperatures should move
back in for the weekend as the amplifying flow brings an upper level
ridge and southwest flow to the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Expecting IFR/LIFR cigs/visbys at all terminals overnight. KINL
will gradually see VFR conditions deteriorate to IFR overnight.
This is a result of light winds combined with the recent moisture
received...allowing fog to develop at all terminals. This is
already evident at several obs sites across the region...and
indicated by the latest guidance.

Still expecting winds to remain light across the region on
Saturday and clouds to remain. Based on the latest guidance was a
little more pessimistic with conditions only improving to
MVFR...but think that VFR visby will develop. During the
afternoon expecting showers and thunderstorms to move into the
region from south as a low moves in from the south. Still
uncertain on how widespread shower/thunderstorm activity will left in as VCSH for now.


DLH  64  53  72  51 /  60  60  40  10
INL  68  52  70  48 /  60  60  50  10
BRD  71  54  77  53 /  60  50  30  10
HYR  73  54  75  52 /  60  70  60  10
ASX  67  50  73  51 /  60  60  60  10


.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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