Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 280807
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
307 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

An inverted trough over western Wisconsin will shift south today,
while high pressure over south central Canada will slowly approach
the Northern Plains and western Great Lakes region. There could be
lingering showers across the far southern forecast area today from
northwest Wisconsin to the Pine County area of Minnesota. Several
models, including The GFS, NAM12, SREF, and ECMWF are producing
this pcpn, and it appears tied to a potential band of low level
frontogenesis. Much of the Northland can expect scattered/broken
cumulus this afternoon, but areas close to Lake Superior will
actually be sunnier due to a lake breeze that will push inland
this afternoon and early evening. High temperatures will range
from the upper 60s and low 70s near Lake Superior, to the middle
to upper 70s well inland.

The high pressure will build into the Northland tonight and
Friday, leading to clearer skies. Very light wind and clear skies
tonight could be conducive for radiational fog development, but
not confident yet. May need to add fog to forecast later. Friday
looks mostly sunny to partly cloudy, with a lake breeze keeping
areas closer to the Lake sunnier than inland areas. Highs will
range from the middle to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

The concern for the long term are chances for thunderstorms next
week.

The quiet period continues as an area of high pressure will dominate
the weather across the forecast area through the weekend.  dewpoints
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with highs in the middle to
upper 70s.  The high will move east of the area late Sunday allowing
a return of moisture into the region.  A weak shortwave will move
through the area Sunday night and Monday bringing a possibility of
showers and thunderstorms.  The weather will remain unsettled into
mid-week as warm air advection along with dewpoints in the 60s and
shortwaves will combine to cause showers and thunderstorms to be a
possibility into Wednesday.  As indicated on the previous shift,
there is a possibility heavy rain Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Expect gradually clearing skies from north to south through
daybreak. As skies clear there will be fog development with periods
of mvfr/lifr conditions. The most persistent fog will be at KHIB
where visibilities are already dropping to 1/4SM at times under
clear skies. Some uncertainty in extent of dense fog across central
Minnesota, including the KBRD and KHYR terminals, as mid level
clouds continue to stream over the area. For Thursday...building
high pressure will allow for light winds and VFR conditions to
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  52  75  55 /   0   0   0  10
INL  77  48  79  57 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  78  54  79  57 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  74  49  78  53 /  20   0   0  10
ASX  72  51  75  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...Grochocinski/Stewart



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