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000
FXUS63 KDLH 170923
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
423 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EMBEDDED S/WV IN THE UPPER FLOW
HELPED BRING A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT RADAR TRNEDS WILL HAVE MOST OF THE SNOW OUT OF THE MN SIDE
BY 6 AM AND ACORSS WI THORUGH ABOUT 9 AM. BUT...ANOTHER BAND OF
SNOW THAT HAS BEEN STEADILY SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT WAS OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTER SOUTH DAKOTA...JUST ENTERING WRN MN
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BEAD ON THIS SYSTEM BRINGS THE HEAVIEST
SNOW JUST SKIMMING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE AREA FROM PINE
CITY TO PHILLIPS AND PRENTICE RECEIVING ABOUT 2 INCHES FROM MID
MORNING TO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS
HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCES OF SNOW ALONG THE NORTH SHOWER WEHRE OFF-
LAKE COULD RODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN
CONCERN IS FOR THIS BIG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THIS
STORM CLOSELY FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...AND HAVE INCREASING CONSENSUS
ON THE MODELS...BUT STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. LOOKING
UPSTREAM....THE STORM IS JUST NOW COMING ON SHORE OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS AND BC...AND THE 00Z SOUNDINGS WILL HAVE SAMPLED
ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF IT. SO...IT IS NO WONDER THAT WE SAW A
JOG SOUTH IN SEVERAL OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF THE NAM FARTHEST NORTHWEST...THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE
TOGETHER...AND THE GEM FARTHEST SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS WILL
GET AN EVEN BETTER SAMPLE OF THE STORM...AND FEEL THAT WE SHOULD
SEE MORE IMPROVEMENTS IN MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY TODAY. THERE
MAY BE ANOTHER JOG...BUT HOPEFULLY NOTHING EXTREME. IF ANYTHING
WOULD EXPECT IT TO MOVE BACK NORTHWEST. ALL ALONG...THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT...AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF IT AND THE GFS
THIS TIME AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE SURFACE
LOW NOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT...THEN EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI TUESDAY BEFORE SWOOPING NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS A GOOD TRACK FOR BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW
TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UP ACROSS MN TO
AROUND DULUTH...WHICH THEN PIVOTS UP ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST.  MODELS ARE BRINGING IN 6 HOUR
QPF VALUES OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH...OVER ABOUT 3 OF
THESE PERIODS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO KEEP SNOW WATER
RATIOS DOWN...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES
OF PROBABLY MORE THAN AN INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES.  PLUS...WITH LAKE
SUPERIOR OPEN FOR BUSINESS...AND STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS WILL BE LOOKING AT EVEN
MORE.  FOR NOW HAVE TWO DAY SNOW TOTALS PUSHING A FOOT THERE.
THEN...TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND THE SOUTH SHORE
GETS HIT AS WELL.  AGAIN...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF A FOOT OR MORE OVER
THE ENTIRE PERIOD.    THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR TO AREA GREATEST AT RISK OF THESE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...STARTING TONIGHT AT MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.  AS THE STORM TRACK COULD STILL
SHIFT...HAVE GONE WITH A WATCH TO EITHER SIDE OF THIS TRACK...AND
THESE WILL NEED LATER ADJUSTMENTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE MUCH QUIETER. ANOTHER STORM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THIS ONE SHOULD
MISS US TO THE SOUTH.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AGAIN.  UNTIL THEN TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

N AREA OF SNOW COVERED PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS
EVENING...AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING IN THE SNOW...WITH VSBYS
DOWN TO 0.75 MILES IN SPOTS. THE LOWEST CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR
OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW WILL
AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY AND RADAR SHOWED ECHOES
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS OF EARLY MORNING. WE DID
INCREASE THE MENTION AT KHYR.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW VSBYS/CEILINGS
WILL OCCUR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  21  28  21 /  40  60 100  70
INL  33  17  31  18 /  20  20  20  30
BRD  35  25  31  22 /  40  70  90  50
HYR  28  21  35  23 /  60  50  80  80
ASX  28  21  33  24 /  40  50  90  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR MNZ012-019>021-034>038.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ011-018-025-026-033.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR WIZ006>008.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...CLC