Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 050306
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1006 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HAVE BEEN WATCHING A LARGE CANADIAN MCS TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NWRN
MN THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING THE LINE OF STORMS WITH THE
MCS WAS ENTERING LAKE OF THE WOODS. THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS
HAVE BEEN DECREASING AS THEY MOVE INTO A MUCH MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WHERE LI`S ARE -3 THEN ACTUALLY ABOVE ZERO IN
EASTERN KOOCHICHING COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE MINNESOTA AND
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHLAND. THERE WILL BE AMPLE...DEEP MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 2 TO 2.25 INCHES...WELL OVER 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
GREATEST CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN IS FOR THE SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE THE
HIGHEST IN THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OF ABOUT 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...OTHER THAN FLASH FLOODING...APPEAR TO
BE LOW CONSIDERING THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE NAM12/SREF
INDICATE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 25 TO 30 KNOTS
ALONG THE AXIS OF CONVECTION...BUT THE BETTER WIND SHEAR WILL TRAIL
WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...COULD SEE THE THREAT OF HAIL
DURING THE EVENING. THE NAM12 SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
DEEP...FAT CAPE FROM ABOUT 00Z TO 03Z. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE SW AND WEST CENTRAL FORECAST AREA WHERE
MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD BUILD INTO THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE.

MONDAY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA DIGS TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE NORTH. THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE AROUND OR
MORE THAN 2 INCHES. THE GFS HAS A FARTHER WEST LOW TRACK THAN THE
GEM/ECMWF/NAM...SO LEANED ON THE LATTER MODELS. THE LATTER MODELS
KEEP THE HEAVIEST PCPN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...MOSTLY OVER NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS THE HEAVIEST
RAIN OVER NE MINNESOTA. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY EVALUATE THE SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS TO BETTER DETERMINE WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE. IF THE GFS SOLUTION IS RIGHT...THEN THE HEAVY RAIN
COULD FALL ON VERY SATURATED SOILS FROM THE RAINS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...AS WELL AS FALL IN TERRAIN MORE PRONE TO FLASH
FLOODING...SUCH AS THE NORTH SHORE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

TUESDAY...THE COOLEST WEATHER OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO BE THIS DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PROVIDE A COOL AND DRY
DAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WARM LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOST OF
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MVFR CIG AND VSBY WILL BE IN THE KBRD AREA AT
LEAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL THE CUMULUS DISSIPATES THIS
EVENING. THE VSBY SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME LLWS
AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOWLEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CANADA MAY MOVE INTO THE KINL AREA
LATE TONIGHT. WITH ATMOSPHERIC MIXING TOMORROW...THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL MIX DOWN...PROVIDING WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  82  66  71 /  10  60  90  90
INL  63  79  60  69 /  30  80  40  30
BRD  63  86  67  75 /  10  70  90  80
HYR  62  86  69  73 /  10  10  80  90
ASX  56  84  66  71 /   0  10  70  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...CLC


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