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000
FXUS63 KDLH 110940
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
440 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM  CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

CURRENT CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING OCCURRING IN AREA OF STRONG
WAA ON NOSE OF 8H THETA E RIDGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
LIKELY IN AN AREA SOUTH OF HWY 210 IN MN THIS MORNING. THIS THETA
E RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND BECOMES MUCH STRONGER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT NEARS. IN THE SHORTEST TERM...THIS
MORNING...MORNING MCS ACROSS SRN CWA WILL CONTINUE AND SPREAD INTO
WI THROUGH DAYBREAK. THEN THE BIG QUESTION- HOW MUCH
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION UNTIL
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY THIS
MORNING THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER EASTERN ND AND IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THRU NEASTERN MINNESOTA. THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEARING OUR
WESTERN BORDER AROUND NOON. PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
2000 - 3000 RANGE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 45 KTS CAPES WILL GIVE SOME
VERY STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET OF OF
80 TO 90 KTS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MM WILL HELP GENERATE AND
STENGHTEN STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN STRONG CONTINUITY WITH OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BDRY WILL CLEAR THE CWA SATURDAY
HOWEVER SOME LINGERING POPS MAY OCCUR OVER SERN CWA EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SECOND COLD FRONT
PUSHES QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT
REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MUCH COOLER AIR THAT WILL INVADE
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PREFRONTAL PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
BUT SHOULD BE VERY SHORT LIVED BASED ON SPEED OF SFC BDRY. BEHIND
THE FRONT... AS MID LVL TROF DEEPENS OVERHEAD... STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES SHOULD PROMOTE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS SUN AFTN...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF MN ZONES. THE MAJORITY OF THE MID LVL TROF IS
FCST TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE BAND OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE BASED ON
MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP CYCLONIC MOIST CIRCULATION. MON MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER SO SOME
ADJUSTMENT UP OR DOWN MAY BE NEEDED. THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GRADUAL DRYING FROM
WEST TO EAST BY TUES AFTERNOON. UPPER TROF WILL ADVECT EAST BY
MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING...BRINGING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH STRONGER CELLS. THIS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS...DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. THEN WE CAN EXPECT A LULL TO VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER
THIS...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN WHEN THE NEXT WAVE OF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. IT DEPENDS ON WHETHER WE
CAN GET SOME SUNSHINE AND DEVELOP STORMS IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...OR WHETHER WE HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATER IN THE EVENING. HAVE PUT IN SOME VCTS GROUPS FOR
NOW TO TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH POSSIBILITIES...BUT WILL NEED LATER
REFINEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  58  78  57 /  60  30  10  10
INL  79  53  77  52 /  50  10  10  30
BRD  81  60  80  59 /  60  20  10  10
HYR  76  60  81  58 /  60  30  20  10
ASX  75  58  77  57 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON