Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 281753
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1253 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
16Z AND 17Z THIS MORNING...SO HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST TO REFLECT THEIR AREAL COVERAGE. EXPECT THE AREA
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM AROUND BRAINERD NORTHEAST TO NEAR ORR TO
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A FAIRLY HIGH
POP OVER THE UPPER ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY...EVEN THOUGH NOTHING
HAS FORMED THERE YET. STORMS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE HAVE FORMED ON
THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS THERE
TODAY.

UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AT 330 AM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ACROSS A FEW MAIN
AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND. ONE AREA WAS FROM THE IRON RANGE NORTHWARD
TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ANOTHER WAS FROM THE TWIN PORTS INTO
THE UPPER SAINT CROIX RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
MID 50S TO THE MID 60S.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE PERIODS
OF TIME WHEN THERE IS NO/LITTLE PRECIPITATION...THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SUPPORTS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE WESTERN PORTION
SHOULD SEE MUCH MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.

FOR TODAY...THE H5 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EAST CENTRAL MN WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BY 00Z IT
SHOULD BE OVER NE IOWA...WHILE ANOTHER VORT MAX AND CHANNEL
VORTICITY EXTENDS BACK THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND NW ONTARIO. THE
90 KT H3 JET OVER WESTERN MN WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. WATER
VAPOR INDEED SHOWED ONE VORT MAX OVER EC MN...WITH ANOTHER OVER NW
ONTARIO. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AND LIKELY POPS IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THE MOST PART. HARD TO PORTRAY THE
VARIOUS BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION IN TERMS OF HOURLY POP. HIGHS
TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS CWA.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHLAND ON NORTHWEST FLOW
ON MONDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AND
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH THE HUMID AIR CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDERNEATH NW FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH THE REGION
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND THE
TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA.  HOWEVER..THERE ARE HINTS THIS MORNING OF
THE FLOW FLATTENING OUT TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST
WINDOW..WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BODE FOR A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PERIOD
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER BEGINNING AROUND THE 4TH OF
JULY WEEKEND.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD..ANOTHER NW FLOW S/W TROF SHOULD BE
TRAVERSING THE REGION..WITH SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN PROGRESS MONDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY.  AFTER THIS WAVE SWINGS
BY..CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS SHOULD TEMPORARILY ABATE FOR 24-36
HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING.  HOWEVER..CONTINUED NW/WNW FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LURKING NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST WED-FRI..ANY RIPPLE IN
THE FLOW WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT TO FIRE OFF SOME TSTORMS AS WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE..AT THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST WINDOW..BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS /ALTHO THERE ARE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES/ ARE SOMEWHAT
CONSISTENT DAYS 6-8 IN FLATTENING THE WRN CONUS RIDGE AXIS WITH A
RATHER SIGNIFICANT S/W TROF DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES..WITH RATHER SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN.  WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT SEVERAL
DAYS BEFORE DETAILS BEGIN TO COME INTO FOCUS..AND CLIMATOLOGY WOULD
ALSO SUGGEST WITH SW MID LEVEL FLOW THAT CAPPING COULD POTENTIALLY BE
VERY STRONG OR PROHIBITIVE.  HOWEVER..GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE
AND INSTABILITY AXIS..THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF A
ACTIVE PERIOD FOR TSTORMS AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER BEGINNING
SOMETIME OVER THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

PREVAILING VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE PERIOD. DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT PASS OVER TERMINALS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS INTO MVFR CATEGORY. HAVE TEMPOS WITH
LOWER VIS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. CONVECTION DIMINISHES
EARLY THIS EVENING AS STORMS WORK THROUGH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND CLOUD COVER LIMITS ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. MAY SEE SOME
SHALLOW FOG LATE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IS
HIGHEST AT HYR...WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM 29.08Z
UNTIL 29.12Z. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
MONDAY MORNING SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VCSH TOWARD THE END OF
MY TAF PERIOD. ALSO EXPECT VCTS AFTER 29.18Z AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  58  79  55 /  50  40  60  30
INL  79  55  80  51 /  20  20  50  10
BRD  81  59  84  56 /  60  20  50  10
HYR  76  55  78  55 /  70  50  70  40
ASX  76  55  78  52 /  60  30  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...HUYCK


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