Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 310311 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
911 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK WAVE IN NW FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING..WITH WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THUS FAR..THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS WE HAVE RECEIVED INCLUDE AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE
LUTSEN AREA SINCE 5 PM..AND JUST UNDER AN INCH IN THE INTERNATIONAL
FALLS AREA FROM EARLIER /ALTHO THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW HAS ENDED
THERE AS OF 9 PM/.

THE GOING FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING..ALTHO WE DID
MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
IN TEMPS/WINDS/SKY COVER/ETC. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AT 925 MB
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT..AND WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD
COVER..TEMPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT
FALL TOO MUCH FARTHER FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW..AND MAY EVEN RISE A
FEW DEGREES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE SW CWA IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE WARMEST SFC-925 MB TEMPS.

WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM FARGO TO LAKE OF THE WOODS..AND
WILL STEADILY PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH SAT MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING IN MANY AREAS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH/ ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
COMBINATION OF WINDS/COLD TEMPS LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT WIND CHILL HEADLINES SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DULUTH CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS ARE THE CLIPPER THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...AND SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE CLIPPER.  THE SHORTWAVE WITH THE CLIPPER IS NOT VERY
STRONG...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF
SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING.  FLURRIES
ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE BEGINNING OF THE WAVE AS WE ARE HAVING
TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN BEFORE IT CAN SNOW...AND WE MAY SEE
SOME FLURRIES AS THE SATURATION PROCESS IS ONGOING.  THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT SHOULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.  WE WILL HAVE SOME WARM
TEMPERATURES AND A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND LINGERING WELL INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.   BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS TURNING
NORTHWEST AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AT 850MB SHOULD KICK OFF SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING SNOWS AS WELL.  DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL SPREAD
CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND MAYBE 20S BELOW
IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO THE SOUTH SHORE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
FOR THE MOST PART. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS VERY COLD AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST COLD...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO AND POSSIBLY COLDER. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A COLDER END TO THE
EXTENDED AND THEN POSSIBLY A WARM UP AFTER THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THE FIRST 12
HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD..BUT LIGHT SNOW HAS MOSTLY ENDED AT
KINL..AND REMAINING PRECIP IS LIKELY TO STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE DULUTH TAF SITES. WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A FEW BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z..BUT CHANCES OF ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILING
OR VISIBILITY REDUCTION ARE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW. LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL ONSET LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS ON
SATURDAY..ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES..AND
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  12  16  -7   6 /  10  10  10  10
INL   1   5 -22  -3 /  60   0   0   0
BRD  15  19  -3   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR  10  21  -3   9 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  13  20   2   7 /  30  30  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$





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