Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 181624 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1124 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

ADDED TIMING AND MOVEMENT TO HIGHER POPS LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. STILL EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO FALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AROUND A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST LATE THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DROPPED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

AT 330 AM...THE WET WEATHER CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM THE
MN ARROWHEAD...THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THERE WAS A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WESTERN
CWA...IN BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN NW WI.

A WET DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR THE NORTHLAND...AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR THE TWIN CITIES BY 06Z TUE AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH MN AND INTO WI BY 12Z TUE.
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...WITH THE
BRAINERD RAWS STATION REPORTING 1.72 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. THE SANDY LAKE DAM REPORTED 1.29 INCHES OF NEW RAIN.
FORTUNATELY THAT AREA IS IN A BIT OF A BREAK NOW AND HAS BEEN FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE MORESO
EAST OF THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN MN
AND INTO NW WI. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...THERE
SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S. COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

THE WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AS THE LOW
ROTATES DIRECTLY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

ITS A BUSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CURRENT
TROF WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH IT OVER EASTERN
WI...KEEPING NWRN WI STILL IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF
RIDGING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE UPPER TROF
CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AFFECT THE NORTHLANDS WEATHER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE MEANS A WET PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SFC PATTERN THAT RESULTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS...THE FIRST TO
AFFECT THE NORTHLAND WILL SWING UP FROM THE SOUTH...WITH A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION...PUTTING THE NORTHLAND IN AN AREA OF
WAA OVERRUNNING RAIN....WITH ANOTHER LOW CENTER AND FRONT ARRIVING
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN ANOTHER COMING IN LATER EARLY IN THE WEEK.
TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES ARE APPARENT IN THE MODELS...BUT ALL ARE
POINTING TO A WET AND COOL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS A CHC THAT CIGS MAY GO MVFR
OR EVEN VFR...FOR A TIME BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KBRD AND KHYR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH LOW CIGS...SOME
FOG AND TSTMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  58  68  56 /  70  90  60  10
INL  70  57  76  56 /  60  50  50  10
BRD  75  60  77  58 /  70  60  30  10
HYR  75  60  74  57 /  60  70  60  10
ASX  73  58  68  57 /  70  60  70  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BJT
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC






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