Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 222105

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
405 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Weak high pressure will remain in control tonight with clear to
partly cloudy skies and generally light winds tonight. There will
likely be a tendency for more cloud cover with time as the night
progresses, especially south and west, as mid and high level blow
off from convection in the Dakotas moves east. There is also at
least some potential for thunderstorms or the northeast periphery
of an MCS to clip the southwest portions of the CWA toward dawn,
primarily in the Walker to Brainerd areas.

The warm front and CAPE/moisture gradient to our south will begin
to surge northward Saturday in advance of the next upstream wave
to affect the region through Sunday morning. The exact convective
evolution and mode is still very much in doubt, with numerous
complexities that will ultimately affect the sensible weather.
Instability and shear parameters should be supportive of severe
storms with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts, and a
secondary threat of hail Saturday afternoon well into Saturday
night. In addition, large precipitable water values will be
increasingly advected into an active warm frontal zone as the day
progresses, and this should result in a somewhat robust heavy rain
threat across the southern half of the Duluth CWA. We have issued
a flash flood watch for all areas roughly along and south of the
highway 2 corridor from noon tomorrow through early Sunday
morning, focusing on the area along and just north of the
retreating surface warm front.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

The Northland will have a couple days of near zonal flow, Sunday and
Monday, in the wake of Saturday night`s cold front. Sunday looks
breezy, and both days look mostly sunny and warm with highs in the
lower 80s. There could be showers and weak storms across far
northern Minnesota Sunday afternoon and early evening.

The chances of storms returns for the middle of the week, with the
greatest chances across the southern forecast area. Temperatures
should be a bit cooler, with highs in the upper 70s, partly thanks
to more cloud cover. There are some indications that high pressure
may nose into the Northland Thursday. We might be able to cut back
on precipitation chances for Thursday if the model trend
continues with subsequent runs. Another surge of moisture may come
late in the week, bringing another round of showers and storms for
Friday and Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1250 pm CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

The clear skies and VFR conditions across the Northland today
will continue through this evening. There is a possibility of fog
late tonight considering the negligible wind flow tonight...but
modeled surface humidity and GFS/NAM MOS guidance is not
suggesting fog. Therefore...kept it out at this time.

There will also be an increasing chance of showers and storms from
the southwest Saturday morning. The KBRD area has a good chance of
showers by the late morning...but held off on thunder at this time
due to excessive uncertainty.


DLH  63  78  61  81 /   0  70  80   0
INL  60  82  61  77 /   0  70  80  20
BRD  66  84  65  83 /  20  70  80   0
HYR  63  86  65  84 /  10  70  80  10
ASX  63  80  64  83 /   0  60  80  20


.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning
     for WIZ001>004-006>009.

MN...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning
     for MNZ025-026-033>038.


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