Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 151010
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
510 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions today stretching from
  the Brainerd Lakes area eastward to the I-35 corridor and into
  the Pine Barrens of northwest Wisconsin.

- A clipper will bring rain changing to snow across parts of the
  region tonight into Saturday with minimal accumulations
  expected.

- Northwesterly winds behind a cold front Saturday into Sunday
  will be quite gusty with gusts to 30 mph and higher.

- Low precipitation chances and warming temperatures are
  expected heading into the new week outside of lingering lake
  effect snow showers along parts of the South Shore.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 510 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

High pressure was in place across the western Great Lakes early
this morning with a weak trough analyzed from the Minnesota
Arrowhead into western Wisconsin. Some low stratus has developed
along the South Shore of Lake Superior along with some fog in the
Superior area along with areas from Ashland to the Hurley/Ironwood
area along US2. Expecting this activity to diminish around
sunrise as cloud cover moves in from the west. Clouds will
linger through much of the day, although more sun is expected in
far southern areas which will lead to better drying conditions
and an attendant fire weather concern from the Brainerd Lakes
area eastward into the I-35 corridor and northwest Wisconsin
Pine Barrens. Afternoon RH values will fall below 30 percent in
this area and, along with westerly winds at 15-20 mph, near-
critical fire weather conditions will be possible. However,
cloud cover may be more widespread than previously expected
which would keep afternoon RH values from drying as much.

A clipper system will pass by to our north tonight into Saturday
and bring chances for rain showers changing to snow or rain/snow
mix tonight into Saturday along and behind a cold front. The
best chance for any snow accumulations will be across the
Minnesota Arrowhead into the northwest Wisconsin snow belt area.
Snow probabilities have shifted slightly higher with this update
after falling with yesterday`s package. Even still, only around
an inch or less will be possible, mainly across the Arrowhead.

Northwest winds will pick up in the wake of the cold front late
tonight and remain breezy into Sunday with some lulls at times
as a tight pressure gradient remains over the region. Wind gusts
in excess of 30 mph will be likely (>80%) tonight into Saturday
with higher gusts to 40 mph or more along the terrain ridge of
the North Shore, along the Iron Range and along the Bayfield
Peninsula. Not looking widespread enough for a wind advisory at
this time, but will continue to monitor as perhaps the North
Shore coastal zones may need one.

Much cooler air will filter into the Northland starting tonight
behind the cold front. Light snow showers will linger into
Saturday night across the Arrowhead in the cyclonic flow regime
around the departing low. Additionally, northwesterly winds and
850mb temps of -14 to -15C will lead to lake effect snow showers
across the northwest Wisconsin snowbelt of Ashland and Iron
counties Saturday night through Monday morning. Total
accumulations in the 2 to 4" range are possible, highest in the
Hurley/Ironwood area. There is a greater than 70% chance in this
area for at least 2" of accumulation, but chances for at least
4" falls to around 30%. Temperatures look to remain below
freezing during this period raising confidence of accumulation,
but the ground is on the warmer side for this time of year with
many areas not frozen at all or only frozen part way down. This
may impact any accumulations as well. Otherwise, a warmer trend
is expected for the new week with temperatures warming back to
near to slightly above normal levels. There are some weak
signals for precipitation during the new week, but no major
system look to impact the region.




&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

VFR conditions predominate across the region, but there are some
pockets of MVFR to IFR stratus around Lake Superior. Another
area of MVFR stratus is approaching the Northland from the
northwest. Expecting this MVFR stratus to spread across the
region overnight and then lift back to VFR through the day
Friday. As an area of low pressure approaching Friday evening,
more clouds are expected to filter in with MVFR conditions
returning to INL. Some rain showers will also be possible at INL
and HIB Friday evening as well, but shouldn`t impact VSBYs.
Winds will become breezy Friday afternoon and evening eventually
becoming northwesterly in the wake of a cold front with gusts to
20 to 30 knots. A brief period of low level wind shear will work
across the region late in the period as well with the cold
front. Have left out for now, but will need to reevaluate for
future updates.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 510 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Southwesterly winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots today ahead
of a cold front that will pass through tonight and turn winds
northwesterly. Strong northwesterly winds are expected late
tonight into Saturday night with sustained wind of 20 to 30
knots with gales to 35 knots. Gale Warnings are in effect for
all of the nearshore waters starting this evening and running
through Saturday night. Northwesterly winds will remain breezy
for Sunday and will keep conditions hazardous to small craft in
place into Sunday night.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for
     LSZ121-140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH


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