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000
FXUS63 KDLH 160822
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
322 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES ARE
FOUND...TO THE 30S ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLR SKIES.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING...WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE
TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL /GENERALLY
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S/ FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KT AT THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PUSHING THE COOLER MARINE AIR WELL INLAND. ELSEWHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 70S TODAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS.

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S WILL AGAIN BE FOUND THIS
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOWEST RH READINGS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND BORDERLAND ZONES WITH THE
HIGHER READINGS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.

THE H85 RIDGE AXIS CENTERS OVER
WISCONSIN TONIGHT...EXITING TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN...AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT/RAIN
INTO THE BORDERLAND ZONES FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS ALONG THE FAR NORTH...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA.

.EXTENDED...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR FOR THE SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND FOR THE
PRECIP EVENT...BUT THEY SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTION FOR
THE BEGINNING MONDAY. MODELS DO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE FLOW INTO
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
MINNESOTA AS INDICATED BY SPC OUTLOOKS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS DIVERGE STARTING ON MONDAY
WITH THE CLOSED LOW SO THIS WILL DETERMINE THE PRECIP CONTINUES
INTO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE GFS SHOWS MORE RAINFALL THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH WED MORNING WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP CURRENT PRECIP
TRENDS WITH RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD HELP TO
ALLEVIATE THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS THAT ARE OCCURRING AND SHOULD
HELP WITH THE GREEN-UP AND CUT DOWN ON THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES
FOR A WHILE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME MID CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT IT
SHOULD REMAIN WELL INTO THE VFR CATEGORY.


&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  39  53  44 /   0  10  20  40
INL  70  42  68  47 /  10  10  10  50
BRD  76  48  66  55 /  10  20  50  50
HYR  75  44  65  52 /   0  20  40  30
ASX  62  37  60  46 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM....STEWART