Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 200547 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1247 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND
REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY
WARMER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. BE SURE TO
BRING ANY TEMPERATURE-SENSITIVE PLANTS INDOORS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AREA
ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING...AND POSSIBLY A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING W-E OVER FAR NERN MN AS A WEAK UPPER S/W
AND SFC WAVE MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY ACT TO INCREASE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FROM THE NW AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL COMBINE WITH A WARMING AIR MASS TO
PRODUCE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WED...MUCH CLOSER TO
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

IN SUMMARY...THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AND SUNNY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A LITTLE UNDER NORMAL...BUT WILL BUILD TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SUBTLE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND...FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
CLOUD COVER AND NO PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE THURSDAY. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SUNNY AND DRY WITH COOL NW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO
THE 60S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY. LIGHT SSW
TO SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE.
THE SUNSHINE AND WIND FLOW REGIME SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. THERE COULD
BE A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE...SO AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY
WILL AMPLIFY INTO SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN LIFT
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR
EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY...THEN LIFT TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LOW TRACKS. THE
GFS IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF...AND THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST
BETTER POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHLAND THAN THE
ECMWF. THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING ASSOCIATED PCPN INTO THE NORTHLAND
UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF PCPN OVER THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IT APPEARS THIS
BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND...AND THE
GFS DOES NOT HAVE ANY SURFACE OR MOST UNSTABLE CAPE WITH THIS BAND.
PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD BEEN CARRYING THUNDER FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DECIDED THE LACK OF INSTABILITY DOES NOT
JUSTIFY CONTINUING TO FORECAST THUNDER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LATEST NAM/GFS GUIDANCE BUILD THE HIGH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z. BEHIND THE HIGH...A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. BY 06Z THE FRONT
WILL BE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AHEAD OF THE FRONT HIGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO TERMINALS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  65  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
INL  38  65  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  42  69  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  38  68  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  40  62  36  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...STEWART/WL






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