Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 191810

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1210 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Today through Saturday will be quiet with warmer than normal
temperatures, with a weak upper level ridge over the area.  A ridge
riding shortwave is moving out of Saskatchewan this morning and will
move into Ontario by this evening.  This shortwave will not have
much of an effect on the forecast area, but may bring some showers
or flurries/sprinkles to the Iron Range on north from about mid
morning through the afternoon and early evening.  Pops are very low
and little if any accumulation is expected.  Another shortwave will
move along the top of the ridge for Saturday, but that feature is
much weaker and do not expect anything but an increase in cloud
cover for Saturday.  Temperatures through the period to be above
normal, with highs today in the 35 to 40 range, though the extra
cloud cover will keep us in the 30 to 35 range for Saturday.  Lows
in the 20s tonight put us well above normal, with our overnight low
at DLH warmer than the normal low temperature.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Still keeping a close eye on next winter storm that will begin to
affect the northland sunday evening.

The forecast period begin with a upper trough making landfall on the
west coast then digging deep into the desert southwest. It
eventually closes off then moves east northeast across the Midwest
on Monday. In response a lee low will develop over Colorado then
eject northeastward from the Four Corners region on Sunday. By
Sunday evening the surface low should be somewhere in the southeast
NE and northern KS vicinity with the warm front across Iowa and
central WI. With the strong warm air advection across the frontal
boundary, expect light snow to form north of the front Sunday
afternoon with the best chance closer to the front across northern
WI. As the low moves northeast into IA Sunday night the
precipitation will spread northward to cover northwestern WI and
into the MN Arrowhead. By this time the low will be nearly
vertically stacked and will support some very good snowfall rates
north of the front in the strong frontogenesis zone. At this time
there is still uncertainty where band of heaviest snow will be, but
the trend has been a shift to the south from the original axis
through Duluth. This puts northwest WI in the heaviest snow area.
But, pinpointing this area is tricky this far out and will continue
to monitor. The longer range models are still taking the low across
WI, with the ECMWF the most southern with the surface low center
forecast to move over the Milwaukee area while the GFS is taking a
more northern route across the Door Peninsula with the Canadian
almost following suit. What we do know is that this storm will
generate strong east to northeast winds across Lake Superior and
make for a windy time late Sunday night and Monday, especially
closer to Lake Superior. The falling snow and the wind will also
make for low visibilities. Our first guess for snowfall amounts is 6-
12 inches across Pine County, MN and all of northwest WI with much
lesser amounts over the northeast MN. There will be a very sharp
snowfall gradient across the Twin Ports area to Aitkin with snowfall
amounts dropping off quickly to the northwest. Again, these snow
areas and amounts are a first guess and could change in the next few

Colder air will be advected south as the low moves away from the
Northland. This will set up a period of lake effect snow over
northern WI at least through mid week. Late next week another trough
is forecast to come ashore along the west coast and bring another
low across the Midwest. This could bring another round of snow to
the northland beginning Friday


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

A weak system will move along the northern portion of the CWA
during the afternoon and early evening. Spotty rain/snow showers
will be possible at KHIB and KINL, with a very small chance of
seeing some sprinkles at KDLH. Local MVFR CIG`s/VSBY`s will be
possible across the far north in some of the showers, but more
than likely it will remain VFR. Tonight, low clouds will drop
southward from southern Canada, spreading into the KINL area
first, and then KHIB overnight. The low clouds should largely
remain just north of KDLH through the end of the TAF period. Some
light fog is possible in spots overnight, but not looking for
dramatic vsby restrictions.


DLH  39  23  32  22 /  10  10   0  10
INL  40  23  30  14 /  20  10   0   0
BRD  39  22  33  22 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  39  23  35  25 /  10  10   0  10
ASX  41  26  35  24 /  10  10   0  10




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