Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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394
FXUS63 KDLH 232048
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
348 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

At 330 PM, it was relatively quiet across the Northland. Earlier
convection that was moving rapidly northeastward has started to
move more eastward into northwestern Wisconsin and EC Minnesota.
Other thunderstorms were developing just west of the CWA.
Temperatures were generally in the 70s across the CWA, kept cooler
by abundant cloud cover and advancing precipitation.

The big focus for tonight will be the threat of severe storms, as
well as the potential for flash flooding. The CAM solutions are
pretty much all over the place, as has been the case for many of
the big events this summer. So we will need to focus more on the
surface and upper level forcing features. Things were starting to
destabilize across NW and WC MN, with extreme instability now over
southwest Minnesota. Our CWA has been pretty worked over, so
storms will likely need to develop west of here, and move
eastward into our area.

High precipitable water, on the order of 2.2 inches, was poised
just south of our CWA, but it was less than an inch across the
Arrowhead. PWAT was also building across the eastern Dakotas,
reaching 1.8 inches west of the Minnesota border. SPC continues to
call for an Enhanced Risk of severe storms late this afternoon and
tonight, across central MN and portions of northwest Wisconsin
based on the potential for development in the area of heating just
west and southwest of the CWA. Still some opportunity for storms
to develop and move into the area tonight. Have also continued the
Flash Flood Watch for the southern half of the CWA based on the
moisture available.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The Northland can expect another seasonably warm week with highs
generally in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Drier weather will keep
showers and storms primarily at bay for the early part of the week,
but more humid weather (and accompanying chances of showers and
storms) will return for the middle of the week.

The Northland will find itself Sunday in the wake of tonight`s cold
front, with warm, but drier, gusty westerly flow through the day.
The well mixed model soundings support gusts of 20 to 25 mph. A
passing upper level trough will provide the synoptic lift to develop
widespread scattered/broken cumulus, as well as scattered showers
and isolated weak storms across Northern Minnesota.

High pressure will shift from the Northern Plains to the Upper
Midwest Sunday night and Monday, leading to clearing skies across
the Northland. Quasi-zonal flow will begin to set up Monday night
and Tuesday in the wake of the passing surface high pressure. The
models are not in good agreement, but shortwaves could pass through
or near the Northland through the middle of the week, maybe even the
through the rest of the week, and could be the catalyst to fire off
showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

There will be increasing chances of showers and storms this
afternoon into the evening across the Northland, and some storms
could be strong to severe. Heavy rain is possible because of the
abundant moisture in the overall atmosphere, and damaging winds
are another concern. It will be difficult to time storms beyond a
few hours because of the nature of the environment, with many
factors at play and lack of model agreement. The greatest risk for
heavy rain and flash flooding is for the KBRD/KDLH/KHYR areas.

The showers and storms will spread east overnight as a cold front
works its way into the Northland from the west. There will likely
be lowering conditions to IFR/MVFR ceilings and/or visibility in
the wake of the passing showers. Once stronger westerly winds kick
in around or shortly after sunrise, there should be a return to
mostly clear skies and VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  81  60  82 /  80  10   0   0
INL  61  74  57  81 /  70  30  30   0
BRD  64  82  61  85 /  70   0   0   0
HYR  65  83  60  82 /  90   0   0   0
ASX  64  83  62  82 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WIZ001>004-006>009.

     Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MNZ025-026-033>038.

     Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Grochocinski



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