Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 121753 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1253 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND CLOUD COVER.
ALSO...INCREASED POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH PRECIP
STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THOSE AREAS. MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IS
THE TYPE OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

A SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH QUITE A FEW CLOUDS OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND A FEW WEAK
ECHOES ON RADAR. THESE CLOUDS WERE HOLDING TEMPS UP AS THEY PASS
THROUGH. IN AREAS WITH FEWER CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE UPPER TWENTIES TO MIDDLE THIRTIES. WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP CHANCES TODAY AS THIS UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH.

SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST TODAY
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY HAVE POPS. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
NORTHLAND LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE ADDED A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY...BUT
DO MENTION SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR NORTH EARLY. SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WERE ALSO OCCURRING THIS MORNING IN NORTHEAST IRON
COUNTY...AND WE EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE. HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE FIFTIES.

SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND WE EXPECT FROST TO BE AN
ISSUE ONCE AGAIN. WE WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IF CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK AS FAVORABLE AS THEY
DO NOW...FROST AND POSSIBLE A FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST
AREAS.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER FIFTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO NW ONTARIO BY
12Z SUNDAY. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO HAVE SOME
POPS OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. A POTENT VORT MAX
MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE SFC LOW
REACHES NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z MONDAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING NW WI. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF
QPF AND OVERALL COVERAGE. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH TO POPS/QPF.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY TO THE E AND THE COLD FRONT
EXITS NW WI. HAVE SOME POPS ALONG THE DEPARTING FRONT SUNDAY EVENING
AND THEN SOME SMALL POPS OVERNIGHT OVER THE FAR N AS A PIECE OF
ENERGY CLIPS THE BORDER. ONE MORE SHORT WAVE TROF CROSSES THE FA ON
MONDAY. BEST FORCING/MOISTURE IS FOUND OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND
EASTERN WI ZONES AND HAVE SOME POPS IN PLACE. NW FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE FA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SFC RIDGING AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
HANDLING OF NEXT SYSTEM AND PCPN. HAVE USED A BLEND AND LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

LARGE CLOUD BANK ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING MID LVL TROF OVERHEAD.
CEILINGS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE 045 TO 070 RANGE. A FEW RW ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL CLEARING
TREND BEGIN WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS ON HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS SO MAY NEED AMENDMENTS
TO CARRY CLOUD COVER FARTHER INTO EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  35  57  43 /  20  10   0  50
INL  55  30  59  42 /  20  10  10  50
BRD  54  35  59  45 /  30  10   0  10
HYR  53  29  58  43 /  30  20   0  10
ASX  54  32  58  44 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...CANNON





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