Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 271542

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1042 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Issued at 1042 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

An area of rain extended north through our Minnesota zones as far
north as the Iron Range. A dry east-southeast flow as seen on the
300k isentropic surface was keeping a good portion of northwest
Wisconsin dry. This dry flow does break down as moisture surges
into that area later today into tonight. The various short term
guidance agrees on keeping the bulk of the rain over the western
half of the CWA today. The precip has been just rain at this time
with little or no thunder. We decreased the chance for thunder
until later today...but even then the better CAPE remains near or
just south of our Wisconsin zones.

Looking ahead to tonight, the HRRR is handling this precipitation
well at this time and it shows coverage diminishing late today
into this evening. The latest GFS/NAM also show show this general
trend. We will wait for the rest of the guidance to come in before
making too many significant changes to the forecast tonight but it
does look like we will have to cut back some on pops tonight.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

At 4 AM, it was dry across the CWA, with mainly high clouds
streaming in from the south and west. Temperatures ranged from the
middle 40s to the lower 50s for much of the area. Areas of dense
fog persisted across the region, especially close to Lake
Superior, where there was a persistent moist marine layer.

The main focus for today through Saturday will be resolving the
various precipitation threats for the Northland. Today will be
fairly quiet initially, but the potential for showers and
thunderstorms will increase from the south as the day wears on. A
shortwave lifting north through the plains today will result in an
increase in showers and storms. The chance of precipitation will
vary between likely and scattered coverage. Highs today will be in
the 70s, but it will once again be cooler near the lake.

The potential for showers and thunderstorms continues tonight, as
the main upper level low and trough lifts into the western Great
Lakes region. That means an increase in showers and storms as the
night wears on, with numerous showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday. Moisture will spread in from the south, generating the
fairly decent precipitation amounts. Highs should generally be in
the 70s, but clouds and precipitation could keep temperatures a
bit lower in spots.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The extended highlights include the passage of a cold front early
in the period, then upper level ridging followed by another
extensive upper low.

By Sunday Night the current surface low over the southern and
central Plains will be right over the northland and with the
greatest instability and lift forecast over northwestern
Wisconsin. This will continue the extensive rain and thunderstorms
Saturday night into Sunday morning with possible residual showers
lingering Sunday afternoon. The low will move north into Ontario
followed by a surface high so Memorial Day will be dry and sunny.

However, that will be short-lived as the upper air pattern will
again feature a large long wave trof currently over British
Columbia digging into the western U. S. Monday night and closing
off over the High Plains by Tuesday. By Wednesday the resulting
surface low will be across the Dakotas and it will move across
Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday into Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

VFR conditions will prevail for most of the day with some showers
this morning, but more widespread thunderstorms later this
afternoon and continuing into the evening. by late tonight most
areas will be under low clouds at or below ovc010 with fog,
drizzle and rain.


DLH  63  51  64  50 /  70  60  70  60
INL  76  56  71  52 /  50  60  60  50
BRD  69  56  72  54 /  70  60  60  60
HYR  72  56  74  56 /  50  70  80  60
ASX  62  48  69  52 /  50  70  70  60


.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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