Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 242008
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
308 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ALONG A COLD FRONT
AND TRACK EWD THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES WITH THIS LINE
OF STORMS. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLOODING. CONVECTIVE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

DEEP CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER ERN MT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING TO THE E/NE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A NEARLY CO-LOCATED SFC LOW WRAPS UP OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH AND SE INTO
ERN SD/SWRN MN AND NW IA. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER S-CNTRL MN THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK TO THE E/NE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE EXPANSION OF THIS LINE TO THE NORTH FROM
ST. CLOUD TO PARK RAPIDS AND BY 4-5 PM SEE SOME OF THESE STORMS
MOVE INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA EWD TO AROUND PINE CITY. INITIAL
STORM TYPE WITH THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CELLULAR IN NATURE
WITH AN PRIMARY THREAT OF HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER AS THE
SYSTEM EVOLVES THROUGH THE EVENING WILL LIKELY SEE THE STORM TYPES
CHANGE TO LINEAR...WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING TO DAMAGING WINDS. LOW
CLOUD COVER HAS FINALLY ERODED TO A CERTAIN EXTENT OVER NE MN AND
HAS ALLOWED THE BL TO DESTABILIZE WITH ML CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500
TO 2500 J/KG RANGE OVER CENTRAL MN...AND ROUGHLY 30-35 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER ERN MN
ASSOCIATED WITH A 80KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALSO AID IN THE LARGE
SCALE LIFT WITH THESE STORMS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ABUNDANT AMT OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...PWATS AROUND 1.7 INCHES...WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMTS WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS NEAR 2 INCHES
OR MORE POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME HEAVIER RAIN
EVENTS RECENTLY INCLUDING LAST NIGHT AROUND CROW WING AND AITKIN
COUNTIES WHICH SAW AROUND 1-2 INCHES.

AS THIS LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CALM
LATE TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
PATCHY FOG IN WAKE OF THE RAIN AND THE COOL TEMPS MOVING IN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED WEAK
STORMS LINGER OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI VERY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MON MORNING. A DRIER AIR MASS AND COOLER MORE STABLE AIR
MOVES IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE 60S TO THE
WEST...BUT INTO THE 80S OVER NW WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF GREY SKIES AND WET WEATHER IT IS SHAPING UP TO
BE A MUCH DRIER AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER INTO THE NORTHLAND MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WE ARE GENERALLY IN CONFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IN BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM AND A MORE SOUTHWEST
SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS CONFLUENT FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH
ITSELF AS A ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
LOOKING FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH THE
NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK
OR INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW POPS...AS THERE ARE
DISTINCT MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT FAR OUT. OVERALL NOT LOOKING LIKE
THERE WILL BE MAJOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED TIME PERIOD. HIGHS WILL START THE EXTENDED GENERALLY IN THE
60S BUT WARM THROUGH THE 70S DURING THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASINGLY MVFR AND EVEN SOME VFR CONDITIONS AS THE AFTERNOON
WEARS ON. THERE IS A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH NO REAL
BREAKS AS OF 1245 PM...STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN TO THE
TWIN PORTS AND DOWN TO JUST EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE LAST AREA TO SEE CLOUDS IMPROVE TO A GREAT EXTENT.
PERSISTENT EAST WINDS WERE ALSO KEEPING CONDITIONS MOIST AND
CLOUDY NEAR KDLH. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY IN OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  74  52  67 /  80  10  10  10
INL  58  66  47  63 /  20  10  10  10
BRD  56  72  50  69 /  60  10  10  10
HYR  64  80  53  71 /  70  10  10  10
ASX  65  79  55  69 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP






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