Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 210852
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
352 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

A closed upper low was positioned over Minnesota this morning
with a surface reflection centered near the TWin Cities. The
initial thrust of rainfall pushed north of the Northland and into
northwest Ontario earlier in the night. Several bands of
instability driven showers and a few thunderstorms were moving
northward through the area at 330 AM. Expect the showers with
occasional thunderstorms to continue throughout the day as the
upper low drifts toward western Lake Superior and northwest
Ontario. The surface low is forecast to lift northeastward to
western Lake Superior by this evening. In addition to the rain
showers, look for areas of fog, especially before mid-morning.
Winds will remain breezy through mid-morning in the Twin Ports and
along the north and south shores of Lake Superior. Additional
rainfall today through tonight of up to half an inch is possible,
with widespread amounts between one-tenth and one-quarter inch.

Showers will become less numerous overnight tonight as a period
of warm advection aloft erodes what little instability exists.
Clouds will linger, however. Cold air advection returns aloft on
Monday and should result in an increase in shower coverage during
the day with another tenth of an inch of rainfall possible.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal with the clouds and
precipitation during the short term.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

An elongated upper low will be over the region Monday evening
gradually moving south and east Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Showers will continue to be possible through Tuesday and we
increased the chances, especially over northern Minnesota. Highs
Tuesday will be in the fifties.

An upper level ridge will move through the Northern Plains into
Minnesota Wednesday into Wednesday night continuing east Thursday.
A dry period will occur Tuesday night through Thursday night for
most of the Northland. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be from
60 to 70 area wide with a bit cooler temperatures closer to Lake
Superior due to off lake winds. A surface high will be in place so
we don`t expect strong off lake winds.

The models show an upper low moving across southern Canada
Thursday into Friday, which will push the ridge east. The upper
low/trough will remain west to northwest of the Northland into
Saturday with southwesterly upper flow occurring, then the upper
trough will move over Minnesota/Wisconsin on Sunday. A surface
low/front will affect the area Friday through Sunday providing
chances for showers and thunderstorms. At this time, the forcing
does not look strong enough for widespread heavy rain but there
will be some instability present leading to heavier downpours from
any thunderstorms that develop over the weekend. Highs will be in
the lower sixties to around 70 for most areas but again be cooler
around Lake Superior, especially Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Low pressure will move northeastward from southern Minnesota late
tonight to just north of Lake Superior by late Sunday night. Rain
showers and drizzle will persist with the low over the region.
Due to moisture in the lower levels, expect ceilings to range from
LIFR to MVFR through the forecast per the latest RAP/NAM and HRRR
guidance. In addition to the low ceilings, expect visibility
reduction due to fog. Expect visibilities to gradually improve
during the day Sunday due to daytime heating and increasing
surface winds. Wind directions will gradually change from easterly
to westerly/northwesterly as surface low moves into Lake
Superior.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  40  53  40 /  70  40  40  30
INL  48  40  51  41 /  80  50  60  50
BRD  48  41  58  42 /  40  40  30  40
HYR  55  42  57  40 /  70  50  30  20
ASX  52  41  55  39 /  70  40  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-
     146>148.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde/WL


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