Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 242005
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
305 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

An upper low centered over southeast Montana and northern Wyoming will
move into the Northern Plains tonight. As this occurs, a cold
front will move east into western Minnesota by 12Z Sunday. Deep
southerly flow will draw copious amounts of moisture into the
region with PWAT values rising to 1.5 to 1.75 inches. These values
are near or above whats been measured in the past at both KINL and
KMPX. The upper wave and continued warm air and moisture advection
will cause showers and storms to increase in coverage tonight,
especially late tonight. Localized heavy rain will be a threat
given the high moisture and multiple storms tracking over the same
area with storm motions south/southwest. However, the forcing will
be progressive and be a limiting factor for widespread heavy rain.
Local rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be possible.

Showers/storms will be ongoing Sunday morning over the eastern half
of the Northland with coverage decreasing there through the day.
There could be a narrow area of instability that develops Sunday
afternoon just ahead of the cold front over far eastern Minnesota
and northwest Wisconsin. If enough clearing occurs for this to
happen, there could be some strong thunderstorms that form. Further
west, showers will expand in the afternoon on the backside of the
surface low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Synoptically the extended begins with a trough digging into the
central Great Lakes and cutting off by late on Monday. This feature
will slowly rotate around the central Great Lakes on Tuesday and
into the eastern Great Lakes by late Wednesday. Good agreement
between the latest GFS/ECMWF/NAM on the progression of this feature.
This will bring rain showers across much of the Northland on Monday
With the stacked system just to the northeast of the CWA, expect
breezy northwest winds sustained around 15 to 20 mph with gusts of
30 to 35 mph. Temperatures will be in the 50s across the region.

Still expect breezy conditions on Tuesday, but winds will be
sustained around 10 to 15 mph as the stacked system moves further to
the east. Precipitation chances will gradually decrease from west to
east as the day progresses Tuesday. Along with the decreasing
precipitation chances, expect cloud cover to gradually decrease as
high pressure builds in from the northwest. Highs on Tuesday range
from the low 50s in the MN Arrowhead to the low 60s in the Brainerd
Lakes Region.

Will continue to see a warming trend as the week progresses and
heading into the weekend as a ridge develops over the Plains. By the
end of the week expect high temperatures to be around 70 degrees.
Expect dry conditions through the middle and late in the week. The
next chance of precipitation comes late on Friday and into Saturday
as a warm front lifts into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

The main concerns with the latest set of TAFs is the lingering
stratus across the region and thunderstorm potential late tonight.
Stratus is firmly in place across the region with increasing
southerly low level moisture. Decided to remain pessimistic and
keep ceilings LIFR to MVFR through the forecast as suggested by
the latest NAM/RAP/HRRR guidance. Due to onshore flow from Lake
Superior expect stratus and fog to keep DLH visibilities to
IFR/MVFR, but lower will be possible.

Late tonight will see showers and thunderstorms spread into the
forecast area from west to east. Unsure at this point on how
widespread thunderstorm activity will be, but confident showers
will around. Tried to pin point best timing of showers and
combined with VCTS due to uncertainty on how widespread storms
will be. Expect visibility drops to IFR/LIFR in the heavier
showers/storms, but held off from LIFR visibility due to timing
uncertainty. Will gradually see improvement to MVFR at
KDLH/KBRD/KHIB once the cold front passes through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  69  48  57 /  70  70  50  40
INL  59  67  48  55 /  80  70  70  40
BRD  59  64  47  59 /  90  40  40  20
HYR  60  70  48  56 /  70  70  50  40
ASX  58  71  51  58 /  60  60  50  50

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...WL


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