Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 151741

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1241 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 1014 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

...Lake Effect Snow Today...

High Impact Weather Potential...Lowered visibility in falling and
drifting snow today.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Cyclonic flow on the backside of
departing surface low now well off to our east across eastern New
York State.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Lake banding placement and resultant
snowfall accumulations.

Sufficient amounts of cold air (850 mb in the -mid teens) to
create lake/850 mb delta ts in the upper teens in combination with
cyclonic flow to produce lake effect snow bands. The lake effect
snow in combination with brisk northwest winds likely producing
blowing snow and lowered visibilities. This is especially true
west of Interstate 75 but gusty winds across the entire forecast
area could blow snow around just about everywhere (especially in
open areas as per usual). There is a bit more moisture hanging on
than previously advertised with 850-700 mb rh still in the 75
percent range through 18z before dropping down to closer to 50
percent at 00z. Have bumped up accumulations just a tad with
around two additional inches expected across targeted areas
centered on Traverse City. Actually would not be surprised to see
locally more with up to a few inches possible (but likely only
impacting a small area that stay in the same bands). Temperatures
holding nearly steady in the lower and middle 20s with weak cold
air advection continuing through mid afternoon.


.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 307 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

...Gradual warming trend begins...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern Forecast: Longwave upper-level ridging continues to dominate
the Pac NW into western Canada, forcing shortwave energy down the
eastern flank of the ridge early this morning. This feature will
continue to deepen as it crosses the Great Lakes region today. By
Thursday morning, aforementioned upstream ridge axis will gradually
be pushing its way eastward allowing for temperatures to warm above
normal Friday through early next week. Surface ridging and
associated WAA will gradually diminish snow shower coverage tonight
with just a few lingering flurries west of US-131 Thursday morning.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Little in the way of concern or sensible
weather throughout the short term forecast period. As mentioned
above, perhaps a few lingering flurries west of US-131 early
Thursday morning, but paltry low-level moisture should limit the
overall coverage. The diminishing trend really amplifies throughout
the day as surface ridging/WAA noses in from the west and cold air
aloft begins to retreat back into Canada. High temps in the 20s with
lows dropping into the upper single digits-teens Thursday night will
be a far cry from where we end up this weekend into early next week.

The real story is unseasonable warmth expected to arrive to some
extent Friday, but more so this weekend, which will be discussed a
bit further below. Highs on Friday topping out in the 30s, but with
partial sunshine and light winds - it`ll likely "feel" warmer than

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

High impact weather potential: None.

Quite the warm up on tap across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS
this weekend into early next week as mid-upper level ridging
dominates the large scale pattern. Associated surface high pressure
should result in light winds and partly to mostly sunny skies,
surely making it feel like an early spring is upon us.

The next weather-maker isn`t progged to arrive until early next week
as cyclogenesis occurs lee of the Rockies, sending low pressure
through the northern Plains. Timing, track, strength, and overall
moisture availability remain in question, which precludes many of the
details; however, any associated precip looks to fall as more liquid
rather frozen with seasonable temperatures returning toward the
middle of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

Prevailing MVFR conditions expected into tonight across northern
Michigan terminals...with reduction in visibilties due to snow
showers mostly confined to TVC/MBL. Possible for improvment to VFR
conditions at least at APN by Thursday morning.


Issued at 307 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

Gale warning criteria winds and waves will linger early this morning
for much of our nearshore areas before diminishing to SCA criteria
for the rest of today and into tonight. Will maintain the gale
warning thru 12Z before winds begin to diminish. Lake effect snow
showers will continue to impact mainly our Lake Michigan nearshore
areas today into tonight.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-341-


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