Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KAPX 252008
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
408 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL
THE FRONT HAS GONE THROUGH. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL SETTLE IN
FOR THE REST OF WORK WEEK...THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  MINIMAL.  ISOLATED NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: CLOUD TRENDS...LOW
TEMPERATURES AND FOG POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: COMPUTER MODELS DOING AN INCREDIBLY POOR JOB WITH
INITIALIZATION...REFLECTING THE PERILS OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.
BECAUSE OF THIS...MUCH OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND UPSTREAM CLOUDS/PCPN TRENDS.  COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ENTERING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
PUSHING TOWARD LAKE HURON /ALONG WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY/.  UPPER WAVE GRADUALLY DAMPENS H5 HEIGHT FIELDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT HELPING TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON.  DESPITE THIS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY NEGATE ALL
SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES TONIGHT GIVEN STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NORTHERN LOWER...WITH BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANYTHING LIKELY
SOUTH OF M-72.

UNCOMFORTABLY STICKY TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70.  DEW POINTS WILL BE SIMILAR /60S TO AROUND 70/...WITH SOME
DEW POINT RELIEF TOWARD MORNING WITH FROPA AND DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO
WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  UNTIL FROPA...HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL GIVEN WEAK GRADIENT AND PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL ADD AREAS OF FOG TO THE
FORECAST FROM LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

...RAIN THREAT WINDS DOWN TUESDAY MORNING/TURNING LESS HUMID...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA...WITH A COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS MEAN
TROUGH.  LEAD WAVE IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH
A SECOND POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM MEXICO/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC/LOWER GREAT LAKES.  1002MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND STRETCHING BACK INTO KANSAS/COLORADO.  AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO NORTHWARD ACROSS MICHIGAN...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
1.50-1.75 INCHES AND 70+F SURFACE DEW POINTS CREEPING INTO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.

AS ONTARIO SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT/TUESDAY...UPSTREAM
COLD FRONT WILL GET PUSHED THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  FRONT
THEN SETTLES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES...THOUGH ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): LINGERING IMPACTS WITH
PASSING COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NEAR TERM (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS ABOUT
THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT (DEW POINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS MINNESOTA) EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SO PROVIDED FRONT
MAKES SUFFICIENT EASTWARD PROGRESS TUESDAY MORNING...SHOULD BE ABLE
TO GO DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POTENTIALLY COOL NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY...SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.  LOOKS LIKE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AT A MINIMUM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT LOW LAYERS ARE STILL
PRETTY DRY WHICH SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART PRECLUDE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.  BUT SOME HINTS OF LIGHT QPF IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
WHICH TEMPERS THE OPTIMISM FOR A COMPLETELY DRY DAY JUST A BIT.
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF COOL TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO LATE AUGUST CLIMO
ALSO APPEARS TO BE IN THE CARDS WITH HIGHS MID 60S TO MID 70S
EXPECTED.

MEDIUM RANGE (THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY): NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS
TO BE TIED TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES IN THE LATER THURSDAY/INTO FRIDAY (WILL KEEP THURSDAY
DAYTIME DRY AT THIS POINT)...WITH AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE KEEPING
THE PRECIP THREAT GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK (SUNDAY/MONDAY): LATTER PORTION OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
IS VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR AT THIS POINT.  CAN ARGUE FOR PRECIP
CHANCES EITHER DAY...BOTH...OR NEITHER.  DON`T MIND TRYING TO
SQUEEZE IN A DRY DAY SUNDAY...BUT THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE GOING FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PUSH TOWARD LAKE HURON THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT APN THROUGH 19Z.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR VSBYS WITH
FOG POSSIBLE /ESPECIALLY AT PLN/. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ALSO POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION IN THE
TAFS. DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AFTER FROPA WITH
JUST SCATTERED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT/
TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL SWING WINDS AROUND FROM SOUTHERLY TO
NORTHWEST. WINDS MAY BE GUSTING TOWARD 20KTS ON WHITEFISH BAY/ST
MARYS RIVERNORTHERN LAKE HURON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY
INTO WEDNESDAY...HEADLINE CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JK
MARINE...JPB





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.