Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 180913

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
413 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 412 AM EST WED JAN 18 2017

No major systems expected to impact the weather in the Upper
Peninsula for the short-term portion of the forecast. The main
features to note are the upper-level ridging that is building across
the area today and tonight and high pressure, at the surface,
sliding through the area. Initially, the area will be under a
tighter pressure gradient today, which will lead to occasional
breezy conditions, most notable along the shorelines of the western
U.P. Temperatures today will be in the upper 30s to around 40, with
the best chances to see low 40s being over the west half of the U.P.
where skies are expected to remain mostly clear. The high pressure
system slips a bit farther south and east tonight, which will allow
the pressure gradient to relax and winds to become light out of the
south to southwest. The combination of lighter winds and mainly
clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the low 20s. This
may cause some issues with black ice formation from any snowmelt
that occurs today. In addition to the cooling temperatures, fog may
also develop as the increased radiational cooling sets up a
temperature inversion. The best time for this to happen is after
midnight and will mainly occur for inland locations.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2017

Longer range forecast continues to prog an above normal period for
temperatures, with a high degree of confidence. Pattern has remained
suggestive that high amplitude ridging will reside over the Great
Lakes and for the most part the eastern half of the CONUS. There are
a few areas of concern for the later portion of the week, with
guidance pivoting a embedded shortwave lifting north across the
plains towards the Great Lakes late Thur into Fri/Sat. Thermal
profiles suggest the bulk of any precip will fall as liquid;
however, during the nocturnal periods as the surfaces cool, some of
the precip could begin to fall as sleet/freezing-rain Fri ngt/Sat.

With the shortwave trapped within the 500mb ridge, it will not be
very progressive so expect periodic chances for precip throughout
the weekend into early next week. Then beyond Mon ensembles begin to
lean towards 500mb ridging re-developing across the Central Plains
and eventually lifting northeast towards the Great Lakes region.
This will likely displace the main flow of systems further north
across the Northern Plains into Ontario/Hudson Bay and clip the U.P.
Temperatures throughout the extended, as eluded to earlier, will
generally be in the mid/upr 30s, but could easily see several
locations touching 40 degrees.

Dew points will also be on the rise over the weekend into early next
week, which could indicate some potential hydro concerns depending
on the duration of above freezing Td`s, which helps to accelerate
the loss of snowpack.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1202 AM EST WED JAN 18 2017

With good radiational cooling conditions across the area, patchy
dense fog has developed with the most persistent VLIFR vsby at
SAW. The fog has been more variable at IWD and CMX. Expect that
the fog at SAW will linger into Wednesday morning. Confidence is
lower at CMX but there still is the potential for some periods of
VLIFR fog. Since the sw winds will increase over the west, fog is
less likely at IWD. LLWS should also develop Wednesday morning as
west winds increase above the surface inversion. Fog may redevelop
again by later Wednesday evening.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 412 AM EST WED JAN 18 2017

Expect winds to become west southwest up to 25-30kt through early
afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens between a high pressure
passing through the Lower Great Lakes and low pressure crossing
central Canada/Hudson Bay. As the low continues eastward and the
pressure gradient weakens, winds will diminish later this afternoon
into tonight. For the remainder of the week and into the weekend,
expect winds under 20kts as conditions become unseasonably warm over
the Upper Lakes with no significant weather features impacting the


Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


LONG TERM...Beachler
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