Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 191028

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
528 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2017

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the lower Great
Lakes this morning and a shortwave over northern MN and western ON
and a ridge over the western U.S. This shortwave quickly moves
through this morning and this shortwave and trough dig into the ern
U.S. by 12z Mon. Nam quickly moves some 850-500 mb q-vector
convergence out of the cwa this morning. Did not make too many
changes to the going forecast overall. Lake effect snow showers will
continue today and let up tonight as winds start to back and warm
air advection moves in.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 446 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2017

Mainly focused on late Mon night into early Wed when moderate LES
and gusty winds will be possible. A couple shortwaves move through
the region, which will usher in colder air down to -15C at 850mb and
NW winds gusting to 30-40mph along the Lake Superior shore. LES will
begin late Mon night and taper off on Wed. Dry low levels may limit
accumulations some, but generally expect a few inches of snow in the
NW wind snowbelts. Looks like maybe an advisory level event if
anything. No significant impacts expected for Wed travels, since LES
will be lighter by then and only impacting a small portion of the
CWA as winds turn more westerly.

Potential exists for a more significant winter system and following
moderate LES Fri into the weekend, but there still plenty of
uncertainty with the track/strength of the low. Confidence in
trailing cold air putting LES into NW wind snowbelts later Sat into
early next week is higher. Stayed with consensus blend output for
this time period until the predictability horizon is more within
sight on the system.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 528 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2017

Cold air flowing across Lake Superior on nw winds will result in
lake effect -shsn affecting KIWD/KCMX more so than KSAW. Backing
winds should allow KIWD to break out to VFR late morning or early
aftn as overlake wind trajectory is lost. KSAW will be VFR in the
morning as downsloping increases. KCMX will likely remain high
MVFR/low VFR with -shsn/flurries at times into the evening hrs.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 246 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2017

Northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots are expected through this evening.
South gales are possible Monday night before shifting to northwest
gales Tuesday into Tuesday night. Otherwise, winds are generally
expected to be in the 15 to 25 knot range.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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