Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 190546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 44.2N 55.0W AT 19/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 170 NM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 41 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 41N-47N BETWEEN 54W-60W. PLEASE SEE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N38W
TO 5N40W MOVING W 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND REMAINS BENEATH THE WESTERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER RIDGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N24W TO 8N30W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-
8N BETWEEN 27W-31W AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC TO ALONG
THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE
GULF WATERS AT 19/0300 UTC JUST N OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO
INLAND OVER LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS. THERE IS NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS MOST OF GULF E OF 90W. AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF ALONG 96W TO
OVER NE TEXAS GIVING THE GULF WATERS NW FLOW ALOFT. CONVERGENCE
OF THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N W
OF 90W AND FROM 22N-27N W OF 92W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
OVER MISSOURI...BRIDGING THE FRONT...THEN INTO THE GULF NEAR SW
LOUISIANA TO 25N85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND BECOME
DIFFUSE FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST SUN
NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW
GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN TO 80W AND IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-22N W OF 77W
TO OVER THE YUCATAN. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS
THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE MONA PASSAGE/W PUERTO RICO TO
OVER THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-76W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W ALONG 10N80W TO
ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM 15N83W TO COLOMBIA
NEAR 12N72W. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF HAITI...IN THE GULF OF GONAVE...AND ALONG THE N
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A WEAK UPPER LOW HAS FORMED
OVER THE MONA PASSAGE/W PUERTO RICO WHICH IS GENERATING THE
ABOVE ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TODAY THEN WEAKEN GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA
W FLOW ALOFT. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY TUE
AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MON. AFTERNOON SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT STARTING TUE AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS A PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OF NEWFOUNDLAND. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. AN UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 63W THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES
THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE MONA PASSAGE/W PUERTO RICO
INTO THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 69W-
75W AND INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 31N65W TO 27N68W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S
EXTENDING FROM 25N64W TO 23N71W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED
NEAR 24N52W SUPPORTING A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 24N50W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 20N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 48W-55W AND
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE 1010 MB LOW. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS
BETWEEN THE BROAD W ATLC UPPER TROUGH AND THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER
LOW GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
45 NM OF LINE FROM 25N62W TO 32N59W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE
NE ATLC TO 23N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION NEAR 32N20W ALONG 26N24W TO 24N30W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT TO 16W
INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS AND N OF 29N W OF THE FRONT TO 25W.
GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE US PASSING CLOSE
TO OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND
WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON WHERE
IT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS N OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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