Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
AXNT20 KNHC 220540
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical wave extends from 08N38W to 00N38W moving west at 10
kt. The wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in
a broad surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water
imagery. The wave also coincides with a mid-level 700 mb trough
and associated positive relative vorticity maximum. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.
Tropical wave extends from 11N53W to 03N54W moving west at 10
kt. This wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in
a surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. A
0134 UTC ASCT scatterometer pass also depicted this wave`s wind
shifts. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.
The monsoon trough extends over western Africa to the Tropical
Atlantic near 08N13W to 04N20W to 04N24W where the ITCZ begins
and then extends to 03N37W. The ITCZ continues west of a
tropical wave at 03N40W to the coast of South America near
03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-05N between
GULF OF MEXICO...
As of 0300 UTC, a quasi-stationary front extends from the
Florida Panhandle near 31N85W to SE Louisiana near 30N89W. Radar
imagery shows an area of scattered moderate convection east of
Houston Texas from 28N-31N between 91W-95W. 10 kt northerly
winds are N of the front. A 1017 mb high is centered over the
NE Gulf near 28N87W. 10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the NE
Gulf. Further south, scattered moderate convection is inland
over southern Mexico south of 19N between 91W-100W. In the upper
levels, an upper level trough is over the eastern CONUS with an
axis along 80W. Upper level diffluence east of the trough is
enhancing convection over the western Atlantic. Expect over the
next 24 hours for a cold front to move from south Georgia to
central Florida with showers. Also expect over the next 24 hours
for an upper level low to form over North Carolina.
The surface pressure gradient over the Caribbean Sea is
relatively tight producing 15-30 kt tradewinds. Strongest winds
are along the coast of NW Venezuela. Scattered moderate
convection is inland over Guatemala and El Salvador. Scattered
showers remain over Cuba, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico.
Elsewhere scattered showers are over the Windward Islands. In
the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over Honduras.
An upper level trough is over the eastern Caribbean. Upper
level diffluence SE of the trough is enhancing the showers over
Trinidad. Expect over the next 24 hours for an increase of
showers over the E Caribbean.
Scattered showers are over Hispaniola supported by surface
moisture inflow from the tropical Atlantic and a diffluent
environment aloft. These conditions are forecast to persist for
the next 24 hours.
Scattered moderate convection is over the western Atlantic to
include the northern Bahamas N of 25N between 70W-78W due
primarily to upper level diffluence. Farther east, a cold front
extends from 31N50W to 30N57W. a stationary front continues to
beyond 31N65W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
fronts. A 1025 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic
near 29N35W with mostly fair weather. Expect in 24 hours for a
cold front to be over the western Atlantic to central Florida.
Also expect the central Atlantic front to move east.
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