Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 150518

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1218 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues between a strong surface ridge in the north Atlantic
and lower surface pressures in northern South America. This
scenario is supporting gale-force winds near the coast of
Colombia through the week. The sea heights associated with these
wind conditions are forecast to range from 12 feet to 15 feet,
subsiding some later in the week. Please read the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11W and extends to
00N22W. The ITCZ continues from 00N22W to 04N37W. Scattered
showers are noted within 200 nm on either side of the boundaries
between 15W-33W.



A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1029 mb
high centered over southwest Georgia. A surface trough extends
across the Bay of Campeche from 24N96W to 20N95W. Low level
clouds and areas of fog/haze are noted over the northwest Gulf
waters north of 26N and west of 90W. Expect for the surface
ridging to prevail across the basin through the rest of the week
and the beginning of the weekend. A weak cold front will stall in the
northern Gulf on Sunday.


Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia. Scattered showers
are possible in areas of broken-to-overcast low level clouds
across the entire area. Strong trade winds will continue to the
east of 80W, including in the Atlantic Ocean passages, through
Thursday morning. Winds to minimal gale-force will persist near
the coast of Colombia through Sunday night. Winds and seas outside
the central Caribbean will subside gradually from Thursday
through Saturday.


A surface low centered north of our area, extends a weak
stationary front across the west Atlantic waters along 80W. No
significant convection is observed in this area at this time. A
1028 mb surface high is centered near 29N75W. A frontal boundary
extends along 30N-31N analyzed as a cold front through 58W, then
becomes stationary to a 1026 mb low near 32N69W. Scattered showers
are possible near these boundaries. Surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin.

Expect for the surface ridge to remain in place through the
weekend. A stationary front in the far northwest waters will
dissipate during the early morning hours. Light to gentle winds
will prevail north of 25N, with moderate to fresh winds expected
south of 25N through Sunday. A weak cold front will move off the
southeast U.S. coast on Sunday.

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