Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 092326

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
626 PM EST MON JAN 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.



A cold front extends from 31N56W to Hispaniola then into the Caribbean
Sea. The most recent scatterometer pass continues to indicate
northerly gale-force behind the front, particularly S of 25N,
including the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands.
Sea heights are 14-15 ft behind the front. Winds are forecast to
diminish below gale force tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds
are expected to persist behind the front, which will become
stationary during the next 24-48 hours. A surface low is expected
to develop during the next 24 hours near 18N66W supporting gale-
force winds north of 28N and west of the front with seas up to 16
ft. These conditions will continue through Wednesday. Please see
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02KNHC for more details.


The cold front described in the section above extends from
southeast Hispaniola to 14N83W. Fresh to strong northeast winds
follow the front due a tight pressure gradient between the front
and a very strong high pressure center of 1042 mb currently moving
over the Carolinas. Winds are already reaching near gale-force
across the Windward Passage and downstream between Haiti and
Jamaica. Strong to near gale northerly winds and building seas
will continue to spread eastward across the western and central
Caribbean in the wake of the front, with a narrow swath of minimal
gale force winds persisting downstream of the Windward Passage and
across the waters between Haiti and Jamaica through Tuesday
morning. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N13W to
05N14W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from that
point to 02N30W to the coast of South America near 01S45W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails within 200 nm on either
side of each boundary mainly east of 32W.



A stationary 1042 mb surface high centered over the Carolinas
extends its ridge across the Gulf region. Scatterometer data
depicts fresh to strong northeast winds across the eastern Gulf,
including the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel, while
moderate to fresh southeast winds are noted over the western
Gulf. The ridge will continue to dominate the area through at
least Thursday. In the upper levels, a west-northwest flow
prevails, with water vapor imagery showing strong subsidence and
a dry airmass over the entire Gulf.


A cold front extends from Hispaniola to NE Nicaragua. See the
Special Features section for details. Isolated showers are
associated with this frontal boundary. Strong high pressure north
of the area combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low supports
fresh to strong trades across the south-central Caribbean, with
winds of 25-30 kt near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to locally
fresh trade winds are noted elsewhere ahead of the front. Shallow
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move
across the eastern and central Caribbean producing isolated to
isolated passing showers. Expect for the fresh to strong
northeasterly winds to persist across the west and central
Caribbean through the next 24 hours, including also the Windward
Passage and the Mona Passage as well as the regional Caribbean
waters south of Dominican Republic. In the upper levels, a ridge
is over the east Caribbean with axis along 62W. southwesterly flow on
the west side of the ridge is advecting mid-upper level moisture
from the EPAC across the east and central Caribbean.


A cold front is over eastern Hispaniola generating isolated showers
and gusty winds across this area. Strong to near gale force winds
prevail behind the front, affecting the north coast of the island
and the Windward Passage based on a recent ASCAT pass. The cold
front will move slowly east then stall over the island. The winds
behind the front will bring some clouds with embedded light and
quick-moving showers.


A surface ridge prevails across the west Atlantic anchored by a
1042 mb surface high centered over the Carolinas. A cold front
enters the forecast area near 31N56W and extends southwest to
Hispaniola then into the Caribbean Sea. Gale-force winds are
noted in the vicinity of the front near Bahamas. Please refer to
the Special Features section for details. Satellite imagery shows
a band of isolated showers prevailing with this front mainly
north of 28N between 57W-61W. Farther east, there is a weak
surface low of 1014 mb centered near 28N32W is generating some
shower activity north of 20N between 31W-41W. This low is a
reflection of an upper-level low and is forecast to move southwest
during the next 24 hours. Fresh to strong winds are between the
low center and a high pressure centered north of the Azores.
Expect during the next 24 hours for the front to move slowly then
stalling over the west-central Atlantic. Gale-force winds will
continue in the vicinity of the front. Refer to the section above
for details.

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