Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
AXNT20 KNHC 222317
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
717 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
00N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 00N25W to
05S36W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 100 nm on
either side of the Monsoon Trough.
GULF OF MEXICO...
NW flow aloft prevails over the Gulf providing dry air and stable
conditions. A surface high is centered near 29N92W and extends its
ridge across the basin. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
accompany the ridge as noted on recent ASCAT data. The high is
forecast to weaken slightly through the next 24 hours as a
frontal boundary tries to enter the northern portion of the
basin. The frontal boundary will dissipate quickly across the area.
Surface ridging will prevail through the end of the week.
A broad upper-level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over
the northwest Caribbean while southwesterly flow aloft to the
east of the trough prevails over the central and eastern
Caribbean. Dry and stable air overall is providing for a lack of
deep convection and mostly tranquil surface conditions at this
time. A few areas of isolated showers, however, are noted on
satellite imagery across the far southwestern waters south of 17N
west of 80W affecting portions of Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa
Rica. Moderate to occasional fresh trades prevail across the basin and
are expected to persist through Thursday night.
The tail end of a warm front extends north of the island across
the west-central Atlantic. The proximity of this boundary is
enhancing cloudiness and showers mainly over the northern half of
the island. The front is expected to gradually lift northward and
become absorbed by a cold front expected to impact the SW North
Atlantic waters by Thursday. Any lingering remnant boundary or
surface troughing will provide a slight probability of shower
activity through the remainder of the week.
A cold front extends across the west Atlantic mainly north of
30N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are developing along the
front affecting the Atlantic waters between 70W-80W. To the east,
a frontal system was analyzed as a stationary front from 31N47W
to 25N58W, then as a warm front from that point to 21N72W.
Scattered light to moderate convection is observed within 200 nm
on either side of these boundaries between 55W-70W. The remainder
of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored
by a 1035 mb high centered near 42N26W. Expect during the next 24
hours for the cold front to enter the west Atlantic with
convection. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind
the front on Thursday. The front will then weaken by the end of
the week as well as the winds behind it. The frontal system across
the central Atlantic will dissipate within the next 24 hours.
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