Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 190006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
806 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 19/0000 UTC, Hurricane Jose was located about 200 nm east of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 34.8N 71.5W, and is now nearly
stationary. The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection was noted within 150 nm in the N
quadrant of Jose with scattered moderate convection elsewhere
within 240 nm in the NW semicircle of Jose. Please see the latest
NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.

At 19/0000 UTC, Category 5 Hurricane Maria was located about 10
nm east of the island of Dominica in the Leeward Islands near
15.3N 61.1W, moving west- northwest at 8 kt. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 925 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
140 kt with gusts to 170 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is within 120 nm of the center in all quadrants.
Hurricane warnings are in effect for the northern Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Maria is the
second category 5 hurricane of the 2017 season. Please see the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 18/2100 UTC, Tropical Depression Lee was located about 920 nm
west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 15.0N 42.3W, moving west-
northwest at 14 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is displaced east
of the center and is between 120 and 240 nm of the center in the E
semicircle. Lee is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later
tonight or Tuesday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 19N77W to 09N77W, moving west at about 10 kt. The wave is
interacting with an upper level low centered near 16N75W within a
region of moderate moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with this
wave is observed from 16N-20N between 77W-81W.

A tropical wave is moving across southern Mexico with axis
extending from 22N94W to the East Pacific near 12N95W, moving
west at 10 kt. The wave is also embedded in a region of high
moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough and 700 mb
trough are both evident. Scattered moderate convection prevails
along the southern portion of the wave affecting the EPAC waters.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
20N16W to 19N20W to 12N22W. The ITCZ axis extends from 12N22W to
09N30W to 07N34W to 10N39W. Scattered moderate convection was
noted from 05N to 10N between 30W and 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico basin with
light and variable winds over most of the basin with the
exception of moderate to locally fresh SE winds within 90 nm of
the coast of Texas. At the upper levels, an anticyclone is over
the western Gulf and Mexico near 24N95W and 22N101W. A sharp
upper- level trough extends from the vicinity of Hurricane Jose
over the extreme western Atlantic into the Florida straits.
Moderate to strong subsidence prevails over most of the Gulf
thereby limiting convective activity over the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Maria is approaching the eastern Caribbean with
scattered to numerous strong convection spreading over the eastern
portions of the basin. Please see the section above for details.
A tropical wave is across the central Caribbean. Refer to the
section above for details. Moderate trades prevail across most of
the basin, strongest in the south-central Caribbean. Expect for
the tropical wave to continue moving west with minimal convection.
Hurricane Maria is expected to move into the northeast Caribbean
and head toward Puerto Rico during the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Expect for
diurnal convection to develop each afternoon on Tuesday followed
by increasing winds on Wednesday as Hurricane Maria approaches the
island.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, Hurricane Maria and T.D. Lee. The
remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad
surface ridge centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Cobb


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