Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 231122

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
622 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.



A strong cold front is crossing the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
from 22N85W to 26N82W. Gale force northerly winds are occurring
north of 24N west of the front with seas to 20 ft. These
conditions are expected to continue through the evening hours.
For more information, please refer to the latest High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.


The same cold front noted above is moving across the west
Atlantic supporting southwest winds ranging between 30-40 kt
north of 25N west of 77W and seas building to 14 ft. These
conditions continue through the next 48 hours as the front moves
across the area with winds ranging between 30-35 kt by the
evening hours north of 23.5N and within 180 nm east of the front.
Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough passes across the coast of Africa near 09N13W
to 03N20W. The ITCZ begins from that point and extends to 01S45W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N-06N between



A vigorous upper-level trough over the southern United States
supports a strong cold front that extends from 22N85W to 26N82W.
Gale force winds are occurring behind the front mainly north of
24N. Please refer to the Special Features section for more
details. The cold front will continue to move rapidly
southeastward and exit the eastern Gulf by later this morning.
Winds and seas will gradually subside by the afternoon hours.


A 1017 mb surface high is centered over the central Atlantic and
extends across most of the basin. The tail end of a surface
trough extends over the Virgin Islands with isolated showers. The
latest scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate trades
across the basin except north of 15N west of 78W where fresh to
strong southerly winds prevail ahead of a cold front that
currently extends from 22N85W to 16N87W. The cold front will
reach from eastern Cuba to the Honduras/Nicaragua border by
this evening. Strong northwest winds will occur north of the
front. Little change is expected elsewhere.


Dry air in subsidence prevails over island at this time.
These conditions will prevail through the day. A cold front
approaching from the northwest will bring increasing southerly
winds through Tuesday. Showers are possible on Tuesday through
Tuesday night as the front crosses the island.


A strong cold front extends from 31N79W to 27N80W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed along the front affecting the
west Atlantic waters west of 75W. Gale-force winds are occurring
east of the front. To the east, a 1017 mb surface high prevails
across the west Atlantic centered near 26N56W. A weakening
stationary front extends from 30N43W to 23N51W. Scattered showers
prevail east of the front between 38W-42W. A surface trough extend
from 22N56W to 17N65W with isolated showers. A 1028 mb high
pressure is centered near 33N24W dominating the eastern Atlantic.
Thunderstorms and winds will continue through this afternoon over
the Florida offshore waters in the vicinity of the cold front with
gale force winds. Please see the Special Features section above
for more details regarding this gale. The weakening front in the
central Atlantic will dissipate.

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