Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 260538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLANTIC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT BY MON AFTERNOON WITHIN 180
NM E AND 240 NM E OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST EARLY MONDAY. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W TO 03N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 00N35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-04N BETWEEN 18W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF
GIVING A W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH
DOMINATES THE GULF CENTERED NEAR 24N94W. WITH THIS...FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A
WESTERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
GULF MAINLY N OF 26N WHILE A SLIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS S OF
26N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE N/CENTRAL GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE N GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR
CAMAGUEY ALONG 21N78W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA AND EXTENDING
A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE ATLANTIC. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THE
BASIN EXCEPT S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-75W WHERE A FRESH BREEZE
PREVAILS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY WITH THE
TRADES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO DISSIPATE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE W
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION BY LATE MONDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ISLAND. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT BY LATE MONDAY AND HENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC.
IT BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO
THE SW ATLANTIC NEAR 25N69W THERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT
AND CONTINUES TO 31N60W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO
THESE BOUNDARIES. TO THE E...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
E/CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 21N46W TO 31N41W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE
E ATLANTIC AS A 1037 SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N19W EXTENDS
SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT W ON MON. A NEW
COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OFF THE GEORGIA COAST ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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