Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 151753

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1253 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...

A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf Tue afternoon, reach
from the Florida panhandle to near 26N91W and to just N of Tampico
Tue evening, and move to just SE of the area early on Wed.
Northerly winds of gale force are possible near Tampico and
Veracruz Tue night and Wed, and frequent gusts to gale force are
expected over the NW waters Tue and Tue night. Strong high
pressure will follow the front. Please read the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and
the latest NHC Offshore Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC,
for more details.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Liberia,
Africa and continues to 03N18W. The ITCZ extends from 03N18W to
02N30W to 03N35W to the Equator at 50W into NE Brazil. Scattered
moderate convection is within 90-110 nm N of ITCZ axis between 35W
and 40W.



A 1035 mb high pressure located over the SE CONUS extends a ridge
across the Gulf region producing mainly gentle to moderate NE-E
winds, with the exception of mainly fresh northerly winds over the
SE water. Cold air stratocumulus clouds cover much of the Gulf
waters, more concentrated over the SE and SW Gulf, including the
northern Yucatan Peninsula. Persistent low clouds are still bankep
up against the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. The ridge will
slowly move E through tonight. Fresh to locally strong N to NE
winds will persist E of 85W through Tue night. A strong cold front
will enter the NW Gulf Tue afternoon followed by a strong high
pressure system. Please, see Special Features section for more


A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 21N77W into the
Caribbean Sea to 16N80W to the coast of western Panama near
09N81W. Scattered showers and tstms are noted is association with
the frontal boundary, particularly from 14N-17N between the front
and 76W. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are observed behind the
front over the NW Caribbean. These clouds are moving into northern
Honduras under a northerly wind flow. Patches of low level clouds
with embedded showers are seen elsewhere E of the front, forecast
to weaken and dissipate Tue afternoon or early evening. A recent
ASCAT pass indicates fresh to strong N winds behind the front,
with strong to near gale force northerly between the front and
the coast of Nicaragua. Moisture associated with the remnants of the
front will drif westward Tue into Wednesday, increasing the
likelihood of showers over Central America and the NW Caribbean.
Otherwise, strong winds will pulse near the NW Colombia coast
each night through Fri night. Large NE swell will maintain seas
above 8 ft in the tropical Atlc waters until Tue evening.


Relatively dry weather will be in store for the next couple of
days. Expect partly cloudy skies and isolated showers to prevail.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the stationary front
over eastern Cuba will remain there and eventually dissipate as
the front weakens in place. A surface trough passing to the N of
Puerto Rico will produce little in the way of sensible weather as
most of the convection associated with this trough is
concentrated on the NE side of the trough.


A stationary front extends from 31N71W across the SE Bahamas and
eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Strong N to NE winds W of the front
will gradually diminish through Tue as the front weakens. A strong
cold front will move off the SE United States coast on Wed, then
weaken as it reaches from near 27N65W to the SE Bahamas by Thu
evening. The front will become a westward moving trough over the
far SE waters Fri. Strong high pres in the wake of the front will
bring strong N to NE winds and building seas NE of the Bahamas on

Otherwise, deep layer high pressure dominates the remainder of
the basin between the stationary front and the African coast.
This is reflected by a 1043 mb surface high centered west of the
Azores near 40N39W. The most recent satellite-derived wind data
indicated a large belt of strong trades from 20N-31N between the
coast of Africa and 60W. A surface trough, associated with an
upper-level low, extends from 29N64W to 23N64W. A recent ASCAT
pass shows very well the wind shift related to this trough, with
fresh to locally strong E-SE winds to the NE of the trough due to
the pressure gradient between it and the aforementioned strong high
pressure. A band of showers with embedded tstms is well to the E
of the trough, and covers the waters from 20N-22N between 45W-
50W, and from 21N-25N between 50W-57W. Another surface trough is
developing to the SE of another upper-level low centered near
27N42W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
associated with this system is found from 26N-31N between 35W-

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