Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
AXNT20 KNHC 300551
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Depression Bonnie is centered near 32.8N 80.1W at
30/0300 UTC or about 5 nm W of Charleston South Carolina and
about 85 nm SW of Myrtle Beach South Carolina moving S-SE at 1
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Isolated
moderate convection is within 75 nm of center. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.
Tropical wave extends from 02N42W to 12N41W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 38W and
45W on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored
over the Cape Verde Islands. Scattered moderate convection is
from the Equator to 09N between 34W and 42W.
Tropical wave extends from 06N71W to 15N70W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave remains embedded within 700 mb troughing over northern
South America and southern portions of the Caribbean Sea.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 14N between 68W and
Tropical wave extends from 06N86W to 17N85W moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 06N to
15N between 83W and 88W.
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
05N21W. The ITCZ axis extends from 05N21W to 04N31W to 04N42W to
02N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N to 08N between
09W and 17W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level trough axis extends from over the SE
CONUS near the South Carolina coast S-SE to over the central
Bahamas near 23N77W with primarily W to NW flow prevailing over
much of the Gulf basin this evening. Water vapor imagery
indicates fairly dry and stable conditions aloft which is
further supported by a 1018 mb high centered in the north-
central Gulf waters near 29N89W. Mostly clear skies are noted on
satellite imagery with a few isolated showers and tstms
occurring within convective debris cloudiness across the western
waters W of 94W. Otherwise...gentle to moderate anticyclonic
winds are expected through Tuesday and this synoptic pattern is
expected through much of next week as the ridge moves eastward
gradually into the NE Gulf waters by Thursday.
The base of a middle to upper level trough is noted on water
vapor imagery over Cuba and the Windward Passage region
providing the NW Caribbean with primarily dry and stable NW flow
influencing much of the basin W of 78W. Conditions W of 78W
remain fairly tranquil with only a few isolated showers and
tstms occurring W of Jamaica from 16N to 20N between 78W and 85W.
The presence of a tropical wave along 86W across Honduras and
western Nicaragua is also providing focus for scattered showers
and strong tstms S of 15N. E of 78W...maximum middle to upper
level diffluence associated with the troughing over the SW North
Atlc is providing for scattered showers and tstms N of 15N
between 67W and 79W. The upper level trough will gradually lift
N of 20N by Monday night...however upper level troughing will
persist over the SW North Atlc off the coast of Florida with a
relatively weak diffluent environment remaining E of 75W across
Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and the US/UK Virgin Islands through
Tuesday night. This will result in increased probabilities of
precipitation through the middle of next week across the north-
central and NE Caribbean.
Isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the island and
adjacent coastal waters this evening due to a middle to upper
level diffluent environment over the island on the southeastern
periphery of an upper level trough anchored from over Florida to
the central Bahamas. The upper level trough will weaken slightly
however remain across the SW North Atlc through early next week
providing higher probability for precipitation and convection
through the first half of this week.
Tropical Depression Bonnie continues to provide focus for the SE
CONUS Atlc coast this evening as it tracks along the Carolina
coast through Wednesday. towards the South Carolina coast.
Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the
influence of a relatively diffluent environment aloft due to a
middle to upper level trough axis extending from over the
Florida peninsula to the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms are occurring from 20N to 25N between 68W and
79W...and within 120 nm either side of a line from 25N71W to
3276W. The upper level troughing is expected to persist off the
coast of Florida through Tuesday. Farther east...a trio of high
centers influence the central and eastern Atlc...a 1025 mb high
centered near 31N21W...a 1025 mb high centered near 28N29W and a
1023 mb high centered near 26N49W. Overall...fair weather
conditions prevail E of 50W.
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