Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 210600

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.


At 21/0300 UTC, Hurricane Maria is located near 19.2N 67.9W or
about 45 nm NE of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. The present
movement of Maria is northwest at 8 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 95 kt
with gusts to 115 kt, Category 2. Numerous strong convection is
within 105 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is elsewhere within 210 nm of the center. The
core of Hurricane Maria will continue to move away from Puerto
Rico during the next several hours, and then pass offshore of the
northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic early Thursday. Maria
should then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas Thursday night and Friday. Please see the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 21/0300 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 135 nm SE of
Nantucket, Massachusetts near 39.5N 68.2W, moving east-northeast
at 5 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevails mainly in the NW quadrant of the storm from
40N to 43N between 68W and 74W. On the forecast track, the center
of Jose is expected to meander off the coast of southern New
England during the next few days. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.


A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 20N37W to 06N37W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region
of low to moderate vertical wind shear and is in an environment
of moderate moisture as indicated by CIRA LPW and SSMI TPW
imagery. However, some Saharan dry air and dust intrusion to the
west environment of the wave is evident in enhanced IR imagery and
CIRA LPW imagery. Upper level diffluence support scattered
moderate convection from 08N to 17N between 30W and 40W.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
12N30W to 09N43W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 09N56W. Aside
from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered
moderate convection is occurring scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is occurring off of the coast of Africa from 05N
to 11N E of 20W.



Surface low pressure dominate the Gulf SW waters and the Yucatan
Peninsula where a trough extends from 21N88W to southern
Guatemala. Scatterometer data show fresh winds off the W Yucatan
Peninsula coast associated with this surface trough. In the SE
basin, a 1014 mb low pressure is located near 25N85W, which is
forecast to dissipate during the next couple of hours. Otherwise,
a surface ridge over the SE CONUS extends to the NE Gulf where it
is anchored by a 1017 mb high near 29N87W. An upper level ridge
over the basin and dry air subsidence support fair weather basin-
wide. Winds are weak and easterly across much of the Gulf
tonight. Expect little change over the next 48 hours.


The core of Category 2 Hurricane Maria continues to gradually
move away from Puerto Rico, however tropical storm conditions
prevail across the western half of the Island along with heavy
showers that will continue to generate flash floods possibly
through Friday. Similar conditions are being experienced by the
Dominican Republic as the eye of Maria is moving across NE
adjacent waters. See the special features section for further
details. Strong winds and high seas associated with Maria prevail
in the NE Caribbean mainly N of 17N. The eastern extent of the
Pacific monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica through Colombia
supporting isolated showers and tstms in the SW Caribbean S of 15N
W of 79W. Winds and seas associated with Maria will gradually
diminish through early Friday as the cyclone moves farther NW over
the SW N Atlc waters.


A hurricane warning prevails for the northern Dominican Republic
while a tropical storm warning is along the southern region. A
dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4-6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic,
and 1-3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over E
Hispaniola E of 70W, spreading W, due to Maria. Expect the entire
island to be under rainbands over the the next two days.


Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. A 1010 mb low - the
remnants of Lee - is located near 18N47W. No significant deep
convection is currently occurring with this low and it has a low
chance of redevelopment as a tropical cyclone in the next two
days. A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from
30N45W to 23N48W to the remnants of Lee, which is being supported
by an upper-level trough. Scattered showers and tstms are
observed from 22N to 31N between 40W and 49W. The remainder of the
basin remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high
centered north of the area.

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