Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 210604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19.5N 95W. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EASTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 25N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 83W AND 94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IS ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 30N84W 28N90W
24N98W. THE CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS
LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II...AT 20/2215 UTC...FOR THE
SECTIONS THAT ARE TITLED...IRVING...AND IN MADEIRA TO THE WEST
OF MADEIRA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
WMO HEADER FOR THIS FORECAST BY METEO-FRANCE IS FQNT50 LFPW. THE
WEB ADDRESS FOR METEO-FRANCE IS WWW.METEO.FR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO
16N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GAMBIA
AND SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 11N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
11N19W TO 10N30W 7N40W AND 10N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
30W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO
ACROSS TEXAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KEMK...
KATP...AND AT KIPN.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
PERRY FLORIDA. NAPLES FLORIDA IS REPORTING A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM MARATHON TO THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 81W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST/COASTAL WATERS OF
HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD FROM 77W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE EXTREME
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...IN SURFACE-
TO-LOW LEVEL EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.12 IN
CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N75W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS WESTERN
PANAMA...AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST
OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N63W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND
FLOW IS RELATED TO A 68W/69W RIDGE. EARLIER CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OCCURRING IN HISPANIOLA HAS WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS
IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ARE BEING REPORTED AT OBSERVING SITES THAT
ARE AROUND THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL PUSH NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE WILL
COVER HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO
25N73W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 29N70W TO 28N77W. THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 28N77W AND IT CONTINUES TO THE EASTERN
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND PARTS OF CUBA...TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W 27N65W
23N70W 22N76W...ACROSS CUBA TO 23N85W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 29N89W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N63W 29N70W 29N81W...IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 23N
BETWEEN 60W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM HISPANIOLA TO 27N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE NORTHERN SIDE.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 27N54W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 32N BETWEEN 42W AND 60W. SOME OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS EVIDENT FROM 10N TO 20N IS THE RESULT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW THAT IS CROSSING 60W FROM THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...CONTINUING INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND BEING
CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE 27N54W CYCLONIC CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
30N52W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N54W...
TO 23N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 23N
TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 26N44W...
AND FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 49W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N42W 20N38W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 33N24W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N
NORTHWARD...FROM 40W EASTWARD. TO 24N23W AND 9N29W. THE TROUGH
AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N13W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 24N20W AND
20N28W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N28W TO
21N34W AND 30N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 25W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N11W 24N16W 19N28W 20N40W 32N49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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