Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 281743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W to 6N21W where it transitions to the ITCZ
and continues along 5N30W to 7N35W then resumes near 50N40W to
3N50W. A surface trough embedded within the ITCZ extends from
11N37W through a 1012 mb low near 8N37W to 6N39W with scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection from 5N-9N between 35W-
38W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are from 2N-9N between 20W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper ridge dominates the Gulf this afternoon anchored
over the Gulf of Honduras in the west Caribbean. A deep layered
trough over the central CONUS is supporting a cold front that is
currently moving across Texas. A surface ridge anchored by a
1024 mb high along the North Carolina coast extends over the
west Atlantic and into the east Gulf of Mexico and the northwest
Caribbean. This is giving the Gulf waters southerly return flow
with strong to near gale force winds across the northwest Gulf
that will spread to the north-central Gulf later today. These
winds will precede a cold front that is currently moving across
Texas and will move into the northwest Gulf tonight where it
will stall. The front will drift back inland Tuesday, then be
reinforced and return into the Gulf as a strong front Tuesday
night. This front will reach from the Florida Big Bend area to
the central Bay of Campeche Wednesday evening. North winds will
briefly increase to gale force off the coast of Mexico near
Tampico Wednesday afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge is anchored in the Gulf of Honduras covering the
Caribbean west of 75W. The upper trough over the west into the
central Atlantic dips south over the central and east Caribbean.
A surface trough is moving through the east Caribbean and
extends from 19N67W across Puerto Rico along 15N67W to the coast
of Venezuela near 12N70W. Numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms are within 90/120 nm of a line from 17N60W across
the Leeward Islands to 14N66W then narrows to within 45 nm of a
line to 12N68W. Scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms can be found across the remainder of the east
Caribbean east of the surface trough. The monsoon trough extends
from Colombia near 10N74W along 11N79W to across the Costa Rica
and into the east Pacific region near 10N84W. Scattered showers
and possible isolated thunderstorms are south 10N west of 80W.
The surface trough will continue to shift east and stall Tuesday
over the far west Caribbean only to return west Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies are mostly clear across the island this afternoon.
Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible
again today for the Dominican Republic. The surface trough in
the east Caribbean will shift east away from the island today
and Tuesday giving the island mostly clear skies. Wednesday will
see moisture return to the island increasing the chance of
showers and possible thunderstorms later in the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high along the North
Carolina coast extends over the west Atlantic west of 65W. An
upper trough over the west into the central Atlantic is
supporting a cold front that extends into the region near 32N59W
to 28N66W where it becomes stationary to 26N73W. A surface
trough is to the south extending from 26N59W to the northern
Leeward islands near 18N64W. An upper ridge is along 50W
providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered to numerous
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms south of 26N to over
the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico between 57W-
66W. A shortwave upper trough is in the east Atlantic along 34W,
supporting 1014 mb low near 30N35W with a cold front extending
from the low to 26N36W then becomes stationary to 23N43W.
Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are from
27N-30N between 32W and the front. A surface trough is to the
southeast extending from 26N31W to 21N27W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm northeast of surface trough.
The west Atlantic cold front stall this evening and become
ill-defined Tuesday and Wednesday. The west Atlantic surface
trough will continue to drift east. The next cold front will
move off the Georgia coast later in the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW


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