Tropical Weather Discussion
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082
AXNT20 KNHC 191030
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W CONTINUING TO 05N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
00N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES
FROM 01N-05N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N85W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER AND
A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING
FROM 23N91W TO 19N92W. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO
REPORT LIGHT FOR ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN N OF 27N AND
W OF 93W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE
TO DOMINATE THE GULF. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS THE MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT ADVECTING MOISTURE
FROM THE EPAC WATERS ACROSS THE BASIN. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH
TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED QUICK-MOVING SHOWERS. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 14N
BETWEEN 71W-79W. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT
CURRENTLY ALONG 20N SUPPORTS ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
AND DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A
1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N74W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS EXTENDING FROM 27N77W
TO 25N77W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. TO THE E...A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM 20N69W TO 31N43W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 47N26W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN
60W-70W WITH CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN WEAKENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



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