Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 071650
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1150 AM EST WED DEC 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana
coast late Wednesday night into Thursday morning that will
generate near gale to gale force N-NE winds by 09/0000 UTC W of
the front along the coast of Mexico. See latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to
06N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
06N16W to 06N20W to 03N43W. Isolated moderate convection is from
01N-06N between 06W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is from
02N-08N between 27W-48W. A surface trough is analyzed W of the
ITCZ from 06N55W to 16N55W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is elsewhere from 08N-15N between 45W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Southwesterly flow aloft prevails between very broad longwave
troughing over the CONUS and an upper level anticyclonic
circulation centered over the NW Caribbean Sea near 17N83W. The
troughing aloft supports two fronts analyzed across the basin this
afternoon. A cold front lingers across the southern Florida
peninsula and into the SE Gulf near 25N83W. The front then becomes
stationary W-SW to 21N95W. A pre-frontal surface trough remains
from the front near 22N89W to 19N92W. Widely scattered showers and
isolated tstms are occurring within 60 nm either side of the front
E of 88W...including portions of the Florida Keys and Straits of
Florida. The second front is a cold front analyzed from the
Florida panhandle near 30N85W SW to 29N90W then becomes stationary
to the Texas coast near Brownsville. This front remains generally
precipitation-free and continues to weaken gradually as high
pressure maintains influence across much of the Gulf waters. By
late Wednesday night into Thursday...a stronger cold front is
expected to move off the Texas and Louisiana coast introducing the
strong to gale force N-NE winds mentioned above in the special
features section. For the remainder of the week strong to near
gale force NE winds will prevail as the front eventually moves SE
of the basin by Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Much of the Caribbean basin remains fairly tranquil this afternoon
as water vapor imagery indicates a mostly dry and stable
environment aloft between an upper level anticyclone centered near
17N83W and a broad upper level low centered near 14N69W. At the
surface...mostly clear skies prevail...however the Monsoon Trough
extends along 09N with scattered showers and isolated tstms
occurring from 08N-11N between 76W-82W. Isolated showers and tstms
are also beginning to impact Trinidad and Tobago...and NE
Venezuela this afternoon as a surface trough analyzed along 55W
increases moisture and instability as the area of energy moves
westward during the next few days. Otherwise...trade winds remain
generally in the moderate to fresh breeze levels with the
exception of the waters off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to
occasional strong trades are expected to persist through Friday
night into Saturday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Clear skies prevail this afternoon as dry and stable N-NE winds
aloft persist due to an upper level anticyclone centered near
17N83W. These fair conditions are expected through the remainder
of the week into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Generally westerly flow aloft prevails over much of the SW North
Atlc and central Atlc waters W of 50W this afternoon. This is
providing fairly benign weather pattern across much of the
forecast waters...however a lingering cold front extends from
32N71W SW to the NW Bahamas to the southern Florida peninsula near
26N80W. Few showers are occurring with the front...however widely
scattered showers are noted across the Florida Straits from 23N-
25N between 76W-82W. Otherwise...over the eastern Atlc...a middle
to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery in
the vicinity of 38N36W supporting a deepening 982 surface low
centered near 37N37W. The associated cold front extends through
32N41W W-SW to 30N54W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring
within 90 nm either side of the front. The remainder of the
central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 25N60W. The ridge axis
extends generally east-west along 25N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN




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