Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 291155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N36W TO 9N37W
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS LOCATED BENEATH THE W SIDE
OF AN UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 36W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 80W/81W FROM 11N-
22N MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE W
CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE
IS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 76W-82W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND E CUBA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 16N20W 9N19W TO 7N21W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N31W 7N39W TO 7N46W. CLUSTERS
OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN
15W-36W. THE NEAR-STATIONARY 1012 MB LOW IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N46W TO 15N48W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING E OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND S INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR 29N88W WITH A PAIR OF
UPPER RIDGES TO THE E AND W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA FROM JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE
INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W TO A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1012 MB LOW OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA CONTINUING 28N95W TO 25N97W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 82W-86W
AND N OF 27N E OF 89W TO OVER THE SE CONUS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG THE N COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE
FROM 19N91W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE
REMAINDER OF THE NW GULF N OF 22N W OF 89W. THE N PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME COLD AS THE
LOW MOVES E-NE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN
SW TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
76W-80W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-
12N W OF 81W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS TONIGHT. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE
BEFORE MOVING W OF THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NE OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN SW INTO
THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E GIVING THE ISLAND MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIMIT HEAVY RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING
THE REGION NEAR 32N80W TO ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR BERMUDA AND A
1011 MB SURFACE LOW JUST S OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N64W. HEAVY
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
28N62W TO 32N61W AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 63W-66W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS TO THE SW EXTENDING FROM 26N67W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR
21N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N-
27N BETWEEN 60W-69W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM 28N45W TO 24N50W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG LINE FROM 28N34W TO 23N40W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF
45W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER N OF 30N THROUGH TUE WHEN THE GULF OF MEXICO
LOW MOVES INTO THE ATLC N OF THE AREA AND SENDS A COLD FRONT OFF
THE NE FLORIDA COAST REACHING FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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