Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 181751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 38.2N 61.2W AT 18/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 391 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 617 NM SSW OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80
KT WITH GUST TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
36N-43N BETWEEN 59W-65W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N35W
TO 3N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-15N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 7N20W TO 8N30W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 5N40 AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 15W-18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-
28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 95W-98W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF DUE TO RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 21N AND
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 21N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND N
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 78W-86W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. EXPECT
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N49W
MOVING NW AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
17N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N24W TO 28N30W TO
28N40W TO 31N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 47W-52W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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