790
AXNT20 KNHC 042350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun May 05 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, and continues southwestward to
07N19W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it
transitions to the ITCZ to 04N30W and to 03N45W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen within 120 nm south of the ITCZ
between 30W-38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Western Atlantic high pressure is ridging westward across
Florida and to across the NE Gulf. Relatively lower pressure
is over the central and western Gulf sections. A weak trough is
along 85W from 26N to just south of Apalachicola, Florida while
another trough is analyzed over the western Gulf from 25N93W to
22N97W. No significant weather is occurring with these features.
Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident
in the SW and west-central Gulf.

The pressure gradient in place is allowing for generally
moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the Gulf, except
for fresh southeast winds over the NW Gulf, fresh northeast to
east winds over the Bay of Campeche and SW Gulf, and for light
to gentle east to southeast winds over the NE Gulf. Seas of
4 to 7 ft are over the basin, except for slightly lower seas
of 3 to 5 ft over the southeastern Gulf and 2 to 4 ft over the
NE Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the high and
lower pressure in the western Gulf will support moderate to fresh
winds over most of the basin through late next week. Fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse at night through late next week
off the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. The haze observed
in the SW and west-central Gulf sections is likely to remain
into the upcoming week as agricultural fires continue in
southeastern Mexico and northern Central America.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The axis of an upper-level trough extends from the well
northeast of the Caribbean in the central Atlantic southwestward
near Puerto Rico. At the surface, a trough also extends from the
central southwestward to Puerto Rico. These troughs are acting
on rather above normal tropical moisture that is present over the
northeastern Caribbean along with plenty of instability, and as
a result the potential for further development of scattered
showers and thunderstorms remains quite high for most of the
eastern Caribbean going into the upcoming week. Some of this
activity may be attendant by gusty winds and frequent lightning.
Additional deep atmospheric moisture in the form of cloudiness
is observed on satellite imagery being pulled north and
northeastward over the eastern Caribbean due to strong southwest
winds aloft that are out ahead of the upper-level trough.
Locally heavy rainfall continues to bring a threat of flooding to
Puerto Rico through Sun. See local weather advisories for more
information. Mariners should also be aware of the potential for
strong wind gusts and locally rough seas in the area of showers
and thunderstorms.

The gradient in place supports moderate to locally fresh trade
winds over the southeastern Caribbean and mostly moderate trade
winds elsewhere. Seas are in the range of 3 to 5 ft, except for
slightly lower seas of 2 to 4 ft from 15N to 18N between
76W and 85W and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are
near the approaches to the Windward Passage and lower seas of
2 to 3 ft are in the SW Caribbean.

Scattered moderate convection is seen over most of the interior
sections of Hispaniola, Cuba and some over Jamaica. Similar
activity is over the waters between southwestern Haiti and
Jamaica.

Scattered to broken low-level clouds, some with possible isolated
showers, are noted moving westward with the trade wind flow over
just about the entire basin.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh east winds over the
northwestern Caribbean will continue through mid-week. Similar
winds will occur nocturnally in the Windward Passage through Mon
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Rather weak surface high pressure is over the western Atlantic
north of 22N and west of 65W while broad upper-level ridging is
over this same area of the Atlantic. These features are
maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions west of 65W. A
cold front extends from low pressure of 1014 mb that is at 32N59W
southwestward to 29N67W and northwestward to well north of the
area. A narrow line of low-level clouds, with possible isolated
showers denotes the front on last visible satellite images. To
the east, an upper-level trough axis stretches from an upper-
level cyclonic circulation that is well north of the area
southwestward to 31N60W to 25N63W and to Puerto Rico. At the
surface, a trough is analyzed from 31N47W to 24N55W and to
Puerto Rico. An extensive swath of multilayer clouds with
embeddedrain patches, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms is east of the upper-level trough to a line from
31N30W to 22N47W to Martinique. An area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms lifting north is south of 14N between 55W-60W.

South of 25N and west of the trough, moderate NE to E winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a
1021 mb high-pressure system near the Island of Madeira.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are present
south of a line from the westernmost of the Canary Islands to the
Windward Islands. The strongest winds are occurring off Western
Sahara. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent
elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will
shift eastward through early next week as a cold front drops
southward over the eastern and central waters. The front will
shift east of the area Sun night, bringing rough seas with it,
primarily north of 20N and east of about 59W through mid-week.

$$
Aguirre