Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 220604

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.


The center of Tropical Storm Cindy, in the Gulf of Mexico, at
22/0300 UTC, is near 28.6N 93.4W, or about 90 NM S of Lake
Charles, Louisiana, and about 80 NM to the SSE of Port Arthur,
Texas. Cindy is moving NNW at 6 knots. The maximum sustained wind
speed remains 45 KT with gusts to 55 KT. The minimum central
pressure is 992 mb. Scattered heavy showers are N of 28N between
90W and 95W as well as N of 25N between 84W and 87W. Please read
the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.


A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
11N39W to 01N42W, moving west at 10 to 15 knots within the last 24
hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear, is in a
mostly very moist environment with some patches of dry air
according to CIRA LPW and is under a region of middle level
divergence. These factors support scattered heavy showers and
isolated tstms from 0N to 11N between 33W and 45W.

A tropical wave is within 165 nm E of the Lesser Antilles. Its
axis extends from 14N57W to inland Guyana, moving west at 15
knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of
favorable wind shear. However, extensive intrusion of Saharan dry
air and dust hinder convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 18N73W to inland Colombia near 09N74W, moving west at 10 to
15 knots. This wave was the one that spawned Tropical Storm Bret,
but was removed from the analysis. Now that Bret has devolved
back to a tropical wave, the feature has been reintroduced into
the analysis. The wave is entering a region of unfavorable wind
shear. However, middle to upper level divergence along with
abundant moisture in the vicinity of the wave support scattered
heavy showers and isolated tstms between the wave axis and 80W.


The Monsoon Trough enters the E Atlc waters near 19N16W and
continues along 13N20W to 09N25W. The ITCZ extends from 0826W to
08N38W. A small segment of the ITCZ is also present from 06N43W
to 03N51W. Very little convective activity was noted outside the
tropical waves noted above, except for scattered heavy showers
from 08N to 11N E of 20W.



The main concern in the Gulf continue to be Tropical Storm Cindy,
which is forecast to move inland near the Louisiana-Texas border
early Thursday, then move across western and northern Louisiana and
into southeastern Arkansas Thursday night. Cindy is expected to
produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated
maximum amounts up to 15 inches over southeastern Louisiana,
southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and western portions of
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. For further
details on the storm see the Special Features section. Besides the
tropical storm force winds in the north-central and NW Gulf, the
latest ASCAT pass indicate SE winds of 20-25 kt between 84W and
91W. Light to gentle variable winds are over the SW Gulf along
with fair skies. As the center of Cindy moves inland near the
Texas-Louisiana border on Thursday, winds and seas will gradually
diminish over the northern half of the Gulf.


An upper level low centered NE of Nicaragua and a ridge NE of
Puerto Rico generate divergent flow ahead of a tropical wave
moving across the central Caribbean, thus supporting showers and
tstms. See the waves section for further details. In the SW basin,
the eastern North Pacific monsoon trough continues to support scattered
to numerous heavy showers and tstms S of 13N W of 76W, including
inland Central America. Fresh to strong winds are in the central
basin associated with the wave. Fresh to strong winds are in the
Gulf of Honduras while moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere. A
new tropical wave will enter the E Caribbean Thu morning.
Scattered showers will be associated with this wave, especially in
the NE basin.


A tropical wave is moving across Haiti, which is generating
showers for this region of the Island as well as for the SW
Dominican Republic. Scattered showers and isolated moderate
convection can be expected through Thursday over Hispaniola,
especially at the times of diurnal heating. By Friday, chances for
precipitation should diminish as the wave pushes westward away
from Hispaniola and drier air at the mid and upper levels pushes
in from the east.


There are two tropical waves in the basin. See that section above
for further details. Otherwise, the Azores high prevails across
the basin being anchored by a 1027 mb high near 35N47W. Two
weaknesses in the ridge are being analyzed as surface troughs.
One trough is along 29N49W to 23N52W and the second trough is
along 32N24W to 25N26W. Isolated showers are within 210 nm either
side of both troughs. The modest pressure gradient south of the
high is producing light 10-20 KT tradewinds across the Atlantic.
No significant areas of convection are occurring away from the
ITCZ/monsoon trough/tropical waves. Little change is expected for
the next couple of days.

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