Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 261801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS CENTERED NEAR 27.2N 71.7W AT 26/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 470 NM SW OF BERMUDA...MOVING N AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 70W-73W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED ON THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE N OF 22N BETWEEN 66W-
73W...WITH LIGHTING DATA SHOW A LINE OF TSTMS IN THE SAME
REGION. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N17W TO 6N17W WITH AN EXPECTED
MOTION OF 10-15 KT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH WHILE SAHARAN DRY AIR
ENGULFS THE NORTHERN END OF IT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N-16N E OF THE AXIS WITH TSTMS HAPPENING ON SW SENEGAL
AND NW GUINEA. ANOTHER REGION OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 14W-19W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N26W TO 13N27W...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SAHARAN DRY
AIR AND DUST ARE IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT
CLOSE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 23W-30W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FARTHER WEST IN THE ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N46W TO 12N48W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
IN THE ITCZ WHICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 45W-50W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N58W TO 11N58W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. STRONG DEEP
LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR AND SAHARAN DRY AIR INHIBIT
CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N21W 12N28W TO 13N37W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 13N37W AND CONTINUES TO
13N46W...IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 12N50W TO
11N56W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 50W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF BEING SUPPORTED
BY A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL
GULF. THIS TROUGH ALOFT REFLECTS AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
28N94W SE TO 25N88W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N82W. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF ITS AXIS. E-NE WIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT
DOMINATE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHILE N-NW WIND OF 5 KT IS ON
THE WESTERN BASIN. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE INHIBITS
CONVECTION. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W-
SW DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
CONCENTRATE ON THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LOW-LEVEL S-SE WIND FLOW CONTINUE TO ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA WHICH IS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S
OF 18N BETWEEN 71W-83W BEING ENHANCED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW. ON THE NW CARIBBEAN A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
CUBA SW TO 18N83W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
INHIBIT CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...
EXPECTED TO BE BE ON THE CENTRAL BASIN BY THU MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW-LEVEL S-SE WIND FLOW CONTINUE TO ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA WHICH IS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. THIS
CONVECTION EXTENDS TO COASTAL ADJACENT WATERS. AS PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...INCREASED PROBABILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES IS STILL POSSIBLE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SW NORTH ATLC CONTINUES TO BE
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO AFFECT
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BAHAMAS AS WELL AS HISPANIOLA NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED SW
OF THE AZORES NEAR 32N34W AND A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 32N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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