000
AXNT20 KNHC 031111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
9N12W TO 7N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 7N17W TO 5N22W TO 5N33W TO 2N43W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N
BETWEEN 16W-34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N
BETWEEN 34W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC... A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND
THE HIGH ...WHILE 15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF
95W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE GULF IS VOID OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE GULF. A BAND OF SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE NE TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N74W. 10-15
KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL THEN DOMINATE THE GULF WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. AS OF 0900 UTC...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 17N88W TO 16N82W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 84W-88W. A MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 8N73W TO BEYOND W COSTA RICA
AT 9N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
TROUGH. FURTHER E... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 66W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 66W.
EXPECT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IN
24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE SHOWERS TO MOVE W TO 72W IN 24
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0900 UTC... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
30N67W TO 26N70W TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1003 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N26W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTEND SE FROM THE
LOW TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N14W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE W ATALNTIC SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. LIKEWISE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N27W
SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA