000
AXNT20 KNHC 012331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N08W SW TO 01S14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S24W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
05S38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-03N BETWEEN 10W-
29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA IN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND EXTENDS N ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF SUPPORTING
SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
ACROSS CENTRAL US AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF. TO THE W...A 1021 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N96W.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO THE SW ACROSS THE NW
GULF REACHING NE MEXICO. A WARM FRONT IS FROM THE LOW TO THE E
ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. FROM THAT POINT...THE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM 29N90W TO 29N83W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ACROSS THE W GULF FROM THE LOW CENTER
NEAR 28N96W TO 19N94W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND SURFACE
TROUGH. A SOUTH-EASTERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING OVER THE NW GULF AND ALONG THE
COAST FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF TO THE W FL PANHANDLE AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THAT COVERS THE WHOLE BASIN.
PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM 16N88W TO 11N62W AFFECTING THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE BASIN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE S
CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THEN ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N80W TO
31N80W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...THE BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS INTO A
SURFACE TROUGH AND EXTENDS N REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
TO THE E...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 29N67W TO
31N62W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED E OF THIS BOUNDARY
MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 47W-58W. FARTHER EAST...A 1033 MB HIGH
CENTERED S OF THE AZORES PREVAILS EXTENDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. GENTLE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A COLD FRONT MOVING E ENHANCING
CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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ERA