


Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
091 AXNT20 KNHC 071807 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Jul 7 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 27W from just west of the Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Drier air at the lower levels are infiltrating this wave. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 15N between 23W and 30W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 18N southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. Widely scattered showers are noted from 04N to 06N between 42W and 46W. Another tropical wave is near 60W from near Guadeloupe southward into the border of Venezuela and Guyana. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. Widely scattered showers are evident across the Windward Islands. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W from south of western Cuba southward across Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are noted at the Yucatan Channel, and off the coast of Nicaragua,Costa Rica and Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Mauritania and Western Sahara, then curves southwestward to 06N29W. An ITCZ continues west-northwestward from 06N29W to 09N42W, and from 09N45W to north of Guyana at 09N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 06N to 12N between 18N and the Guiana-Sierra Leone coast, and near and up to 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 53W and 58W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An elongated upper-level low across the central Gulf is triggering scattered showers and strong thunderstorms at the south-central and northwestern Gulf. A 1014 low is generating isolated thunderstorms at the northeastern Gulf. A modest 1019 mb high at the central Gulf is maintaining gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft for the north-central and eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the modest high will prevail across the Gulf through Friday. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1025 mb Bermuda High continues to support a trade-wind pattern for much of the Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades are causing isolated thunderstorms between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds with 8 to 10 ft seas are evident at the south-central basin. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas linger near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate with locally fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressure over northern Colombian will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south- central basin through Friday. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through the Friday. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two surface troughs are producing scattered moderate convection east of the Bahamas from 22N to 28N and between 54W and 74W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic section. The subtropical high is supporting light to gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas north of 25N between 45W and 60W. Otherwise, moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE trade winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are present north of 20N between 35W and 77W. West of 77W and north of 20N, gentle to moderate S to SW winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are noted. For the tropical Atlantic from 08N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas will prevail over the western Atlantic into tonight. The subtropical ridge will continue to build westward toward Florida and the Bahamas through the week. This pattern will support gentle to moderate winds, except for fresh to strong E to SE winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Fri night. $$ Chan