Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 250544

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1244 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
03N17W where it transitions into the ITCZ and continues to 02S44W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed within 90 nm either
side of the ITCZ between 17W and 40W.



A cold front extends along the Texas coast. No significant
convection is observed along this boundary at this time. A 1011 mb
high is centered across the northeast Gulf near 29N86W.
Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle anticyclonic flow
prevailing across most of the basin except near the cold front
over the northwest waters. Expect for the front to move off the
Texas coast with fresh to strong northeasterly winds developing
across the NW Gulf in the wake of the front. The front will extend
from the Florida panhandle to the northern Bay of Campeche by the
morning and pass through the Straits of Florida on Sunday with
southeast return flow developing over the Gulf mainly west of


A broad area of high pressure extends across the central and
eastern Atlantic reaching the Caribbean waters. Winds are
generally light and variable across most of the basin with wave
heights around 2 to 3 FT. Moderate easterly winds are depicted in
scatterometer data south of 13N between 72W-78W. As high pressure
builds to the N of the area by late in the weekend, moderate to
fresh trade winds are expected to resume. Strongest winds are
expected once again within 90 NM of the coast of Colombia
by late Sunday.


The southern extent of a cold front reaches the adjacent waters
to the north of the island. Cloudiness and isolated showers are
observed over this area. Some of this activity could reach the
northern portion of the island tonight. The front will dissipate
within the next 24 hours. Low-level southwesterly flow will
prevail enhancing afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the


A 1006 mb surface low is centered near 30N75W. This low is moving
northeast at 15 kt while occluding. A cold front extends from
31N68W to 21N71W. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds prevail in
the vicinity of the low and front mainly north of 28N between 63W-
69W. To the east, a stationary front was analyzed from 31N40W to
22N53W to 23N62W. The remainder of the basin is under the
influence of a surface ridge extending SW from a 1026 MB high
centered near 33N26W.

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