Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 230519

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
119 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast from
08N13W to 04N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues
from 04N20W to 00N40W to the South American coast near 00N50W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N-05N between
12W-21W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the ITCZ between



A cold front is over the W Gulf of Mexico from SE Louisiana near
29N92W to S Texas near 27N97W. Radar imagery shows a line of
thunderstorms inland from SW Alabama to SE Louisiana, however, the
remainder of the front over the W Gulf is void of precipitation.
20-25 kt N winds are N of the front. Elsewhere, a 1010 mb low is
centered over W Cuba near 22N83W. A surface trough extends N from
the low to 26N85W to the NE Gulf near 28N84W. Radar imagery shows
scattered showers over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida E of
82W. Broken multilayered clouds are over central and S Florida. Mostly
fair weather is over the remainder of the Gulf. In the upper levels,
an upper level trough is over the Gulf with axis along 90W. In
addition, a small upper level low is embedded over the SE Gulf
near 26N84W enhancing he cloudiness over central and S Florida.
Expect in 24 hours the cold front to extend from Tallahassee
Florida to Tampico Mexico with scattered showers. 20-25 N winds
will be N of front. Also expect scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to persist over S Florida and the Straits of Florida
for the next 24 hours.


A 1010 mb low is centered over W Cuba near 22N83W. A surface trough
extends S from the low to 20N80W to W of Jamaica near 17N79W.
Radar imagery and lightning data shows scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms E of the trough over all of central Cuba.
More scattered showers are over Jamaica and Hispaniola. Another
surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala from
20N87W to 14N91W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
trough. Further S, scattered moderate convection is inland over NW
Venezuela. Scattered showers are over Panama, Costa Rica, and
Honduras. 20-25 kt E wind are noted over the E Caribbean E of 74W.
In the upper levels, mostly zonal flow is noted. Upper level
moisture is over the N Caribbean from Cuba to the Leeward Islands.
Expect over the next 24 hours for additional scattered showers to
be over Puerto Rico, and the Leeward Islands.


Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola. Expect Widely
scattered moderate convection and scattered showers over the
island for the next 24 hours. Expect the heaviest convection over
the afternoon and evening hours, during maximum heating.


Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the
Bahamas. A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near
27N65W. The tail end of a cold front is over the central Atlantic
from 31N39W to 28N45W. A prefrontal trough extends from 31N34W to
25N40W. Scattered showers are E of the trough from 27N-34N between
32W-35W. A 1021 mb high is centered W of the Canary Islands near
29N21W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level low is
centered over the central Atlantic near 38N44W enhancing convection
mostly E of the center. Expect over the next 24 hours for scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms to persist over the Bahamas.
Also expect the showers over the central Atlantic to move E.

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