Tropical Weather Discussion
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822
AXNT20 KNHC 240544
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
144 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N to 09N
between 30W and 34W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W, from 13N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
any nearby precipitation is part of the ITCZ precipitation.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W, near the western
part of Jamaica, from 18N southward into Panama, moving westward
10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: nothing significant.
The wave is moving through an area of upper level SW wind flow.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W, curving to 07N20W and 07N29W. The ITCZ continues
from 07N29W to 07N35W 05N46W 05N52W. Convective precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong from 05N to 07N between 40W and 44W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong within 120 nm on either side
of 03N at the Prime Meridian, 04N09W 03N21W 07N32W 06N50W 09N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the northern one-third
of the Gulf of Mexico. A deep layer trough is inland, in the
central U.S.A. The trough supports a stationary front that curves
from SE Louisiana, into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to
the coast of the deep south of Texas. A cold front is in the
coastal plains of Texas. A surface trough is along 26N93W 22N96W.
Convective precipitation: numerous strong in Mexico and its
coastal waters from 22N to 25N between 96W and 99W, and in the
water from 26N to 28N between 92W and 95W. High level clouds are
within 120 nm on either side of 25N94W 27N86W beyond 28N83W.

An upper level ridge extends from an anticyclonic circulation
center that is near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, on the southern side
of Mexico, toward the southern half of Florida.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

MVFR: KMZG, KGUL, KGRY, KVKY, and KMIS.

VFR: none.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR, rainshowers with thunder, in the Lower Valley. Rain
from Galveston to Beaumont/Port Arthur. Rain has been in the
Houston metropolitan area during the last few hours. LOUISIANA:
light rain in the SW part of the state. MISSISSIPPI:
MVFR in Natchez. FLORIDA: MVFR from Perry westward, in the
Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area, and in Sarasota.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the central Bahamas, across
SE Cuba, between Jamaica and Haiti, toward SE Nicaragua. to
eastern sections of Honduras/NE Nicaragua. Upper level SW
wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Convective
precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea within 500 nm to the E and SE
of the trough.

The monsoon trough is along 09N80W in Panama, beyond NW Costa
Rica. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
within a 30 nm radius of 11N81W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from
13N southward from 76W westward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR.
for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: MVFR. dust. few
cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta
Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will
continue across Hispaniola for the next 6 hours to 12 hours, in
advance of the trough that is just to the west of the area. The
trough will move across Hispaniola, bringing cyclonic wind flow
for 12 hours or so. The rest of the 48-hour forecast will consist
of NW wind flow, as a ridge moves across the area. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 mb shows that an anticyclonic circulation center
will be to the NE of Hispaniola during the first 30 hours of the
48-hour forecast period. Expect southerly wind flow during that
time period. The anticyclonic circulation center is forecast to
pass on top of Hispaniola for about 6 hours or so, as it moves
westward and away from Hispaniola. Expect N wind flow as the
anticyclonic circulation center ends up to the west of Hispaniola
by the end of the forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700
mb shows that an anticyclonic circulation center will be to the NW
of Hispaniola at the start of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect
SW wind flow for the first 36 hours or so. The anticyclonic
circulation center is forecast to move to a position that will be
to the north of Hispaniola, at the end of the forecast period,
bringing with it E-to-NE wind flow.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level trough passes through 32N33W
to a 24N41W cyclonic circulation center, to 19N45W. The trough
supports a cold front that passes through 32N31W and 23N46W.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 90 nm on
either side of the line that passes through 32N29W 26N40W 23N45W
23N51W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N23W to a 1022 mb high pressure
center that is near 27N29W, to 20N45W. Surface anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean that is to the west and northwest
of the cold front, from 17N northward between 49W and 80W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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