Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 172333

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.


A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N54W to the S
Bahamas near 21N70W. A warm front continues to the Straits of
Florida near 24N80W. Gale force SW winds are N of 29N within 300
nm E of the cold front with seas 11-17 ft. The gale is forecast
to end in 24 hours. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
02N21W. The ITCZ extends from 02N21W to 02S30W to the South
American Coast near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 02N-07N between 01W-10W, and from 02N-06N between 16W-19W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04S-02N between 28W-



A 1009 mb low is centered near Corpus Christi Texas at 28N96W. A
surface trough extends S form to low to near Tampico Mexico at
23N98W. A 1019 mb high is centered N of the Bahamas at 28N78W
producing 5-10 kt southerly return flow over the Gulf of Mexico.
Elsewhere, a dissipating warm front extends from the Straits of
Florida near 24N80W to the Yucatan Channel near 22N85W to the
Yucatan near 19N90W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the
front. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over
Oklahoma near 35N97W. A trough axis extends S to near Tampico
Mexico. Upper level diffluence E of the trough axis is producing
bands of scattered moderate convection over the NW Gulf N of 24N
between 88W-95W. Expect in 24 hours for the surface low to be
over central Mississippi with a trough extending S to the
central Gulf of Mexico. Also expect the upper level trough to
also move E and produce convection over the central Gulf between


A dissipating warm front continues to move N between the Straits
of Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula producing scattered
showers. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows scattered showers over
central Puerto Rico. More showers are over NW Venezuela, N
Colombia, W Panama, NE Nicaragua, and E Honduras. 10-20 kt
tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the
coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, an upper level high is
over the central Caribbean Sea near 15N72W. Upper level moisture
is over the Yucatan Peninsula, the NW Caribbean, and W Cuba.
Strong subsidence is elsewhere. Expect in 24 hours for the the
tail-end of an Atlantic cold front to be just N of Hispaniola
with scattered showers. Also expect lingering showers to extend
from E Cuba to the Yucatan Channel.


Scattered showers are now over central Hispaniola. Expect over
the next 24 hours for prefrontal showers to be over the Island.


A 1019 mb high is centered N of the Bahamas at 28N78W. A cold
front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N54W to the S Bahamas
near 21N70W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm E of
front N of 27N. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of
the front. A gale is within 300 nm E of front N of 29N. See
above. A 1032 mb high is centered over the Azores near 38N28W.
Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W
Atlantic N of 25N W of 50W supporting the cold front. Expect in
24 hours for the cold front to extend from 31N47W to 22N60W to N
of Hispaniola near 21N72W with convection and showers.

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