Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 132346

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.


Hurricane Nicole is centered near 33.8N 62.3W at 14/0000 UTC or
155 nm northeast of Bermuda moving northeast at 21 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 32N-35N between 61W-65W. See latest
NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.


Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends along 40W/41W
from 9N-17N moving west-northwest near 15 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough and is
embedded within a surge of moisture. Wave is along the western
edge of an upper ridge with clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection removed east of the wave axis from
13N-18N between 32W-39W.

Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends along 68W from 15N to
inland over Venezuela moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough south of 13N and is
embedded within a broad area of moisture. However, no associated
deep convection is noted.


The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W along 10N17W 8N22W to 11N32W. The ITCZ is
disrupted across the remainder of the Atlantic. Clusters of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 90
nm either side of the monsoon trough east of 30W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 3N-7N between 8W-14W.



A broad upper trough covers the northeast CONUS with the trough
axis extending through the west Atlantic clipping south Florida
then into the Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are in the Straits of Florida south of 25N east of
85W. An upper ridge anchored along the west coast of Mexico
extends across Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico near 25N97W to the
northeast Gulf and the Big Bend area of Florida. Strong
subsidence and dry, stable air aloft covers the entire Gulf this
evening. A remnant surface trough extends along the coast of
Mexico from Tampico to just south of the Rio Grande. A surface
ridge extends across the central Gulf to the Bay of Campeche.
The surface trough will meander across the west and southwest
Gulf as the surface ridge persist through the weekend.


The broad upper trough that extends the west Atlantic clipping
south Florida dominates the Caribbean this evening. A surface
trough extends from the south coast of Cuba near 20N78W along
16N79W to 11N78W generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from 11N-19N between 73W-80W, including Jamaica,
as well as inland over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. The monsoon
trough extends from Colombia near 10N75W along 10N78W 9N81W then
across Costa Rica near 10N84W generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms south of 13N west of 79W. The surface
trough and the tropical wave will continue to move westward and
merge into a broad area of low pressure in the southwest
Caribbean this weekend.


The broad upper trough over the Caribbean is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the island
this evening. The upper trough and lingering moisture will
continue to give the island showers and thunderstorms through


The primary concern this evening continues to be Hurricane
Nicole moving northeast away from Bermuda. See Special Features
above. The broad upper trough over the northeast CONUS covers
the west Atlantic supporting a surface trough that extends from
24N72W across the the Bahamas to the coast of Cuba near 22N78W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 75 nm either side
of the surface trough. A weak 1016 mb high is to the southeast
of Nicole near 28N50W. An upper low is centered in the
east/central Atlantic near 30N35W with a weakening 1014 mb
surface low near 30N41W. The upper low is generating scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms from 24N-30N between 31W-37W.
A surface ridge covers the east Atlantic north of 20N east of
40W anchored by a 1020 mb high near 29N27W. Hurricane Nicole is
expected to turn toward the east-northeast with an increase in
forward speed tonight or Friday. This will take Nicole further
away from Bermuda. The west Atlantic surface trough will move
southeast and become stationary along 22N on Saturday.

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