Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 180545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N27W TO 21N27W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO COINCIDE WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A
MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE
WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N41W TO 19N40W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N41W. IN ADDITION...WEAK
AND BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING IS NOTED ON GLOBAL MODEL DATA BETWEEN
37W-47W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-
14N BETWEEN 41W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N76W TO 22N75W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM
NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS FOCUSED NEAR
12N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N
BETWEEN 71W-79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N
BETWEEN 75W-79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO
14N21W TO 12N30W TO 11N41W TO 10N49W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N49W TO 09N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 15W-24W...
AND FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 24W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 28W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N98W THAT INFLUENCES
MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W THIS EVENING. WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 27N ACROSS THE BASIN...AMPLE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 92W-97W.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED
ALONG 27N THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W IS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN
75W-80W AT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS AND ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND FAR EASTERN PANAMA. THE
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE BENEATH THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N79W. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 13N W OF 80W...AND ACTIVE
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 10N IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 09N/10N...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES ARE PERSISTING GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-79W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS THIS EVENING REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 76W. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE AND AN OVERALL DRYING TREND ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH TRADES PERSISTING
AND THE USUAL POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 27N78W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE RIDGING
ALONG 27N. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...GENERALLY
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS N OF 30N. LINGERING MOISTURE
AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 28N WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 55W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ANCHORED BY TWO 1020 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 27N62W
AND 27N71W THAT ARE FORECAST TO MERGE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FARTHER
EAST...THE SURFACE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
AS A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N32W
EXTENDING SW TO 23N46W THEN TO 21N51W AS A SURFACE TROUGH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT...A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 30N42W THAT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 37W-50W. FINALLY...ANOTHER
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC STEMMING FROM A
WEAK 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N22W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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