Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 251029
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0900 UTC...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS LOCATED NEAR 14N49W.
ERIKA IS MOVING W AT AROUND 17 KT AND IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
A WNW TRAJECTORY WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB
AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N29W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 16N28W TO
13N26W. SSMI TPW INDICATES THAT THE WAVE AND LOW CENTER ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 25W-29W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 18N16W TO A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 16N28W TO 12N39W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL
WAVE/LOW...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN 29W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 24N97W
COVERING THE W GULF MAINLY W OF 95W WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS IS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE BASIN S OF 25N. TO THE N...A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED
NEAR 27N92W. WITH THIS...A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
ACROSS THE BASIN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS GULF STATES
COASTLINE FROM 30N94W TO 30N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF
27N...BETWEEN 87W-93W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT S AND
STALL ALONG THE N GULF WATERS ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM CUBA
AFFECTING THE WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF 82W. TO THE E...A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N72W EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF
THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS W ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 66W. THE REMNANTS OF DANNY ARE A WEAK 1010 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 16N66W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-
21 N BETWEEN 64W-67W AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SE PUERTO
RICO. BENIGN WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE REMNANTS OF DANNY TO
DISSIPATE WHILE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL APPROACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. IN 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE REMNANTS OF DANNY CURRENTLY MOVING OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SE PUERTO RICO TO MOVE S OF THE ISLAND
WHILE WEAKENING THEN DISSIPATE. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N79W COVERING THE AREA W OF 66W AND EXTENDING INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
25N77W TO 29N67W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. AN AREA OF UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 60W-64W. TO THE NE...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM 28N-30N
BETWEEN 39W-42W. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



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