Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 140528

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.


At 14/0300 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is around 430 nm
south of Bermuda near 25.2N 66.0W, moving W at 3 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. The maximum
sustained winds are now 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is present from 20N-27N
between 60W- 69W. Jose is expected to move slowly NW through
Friday afternoon, then turn toward the north on Friday night.
Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.


A tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic has an axis extending
from 18N28W to a 1010 mb low near 09N29W to 02N29W, moving west at
around 15-20 kt. This wave coincides with modest troughing in 700
mb model wind fields. TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is
embedded in a large area of deep-layer moisture. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to
07N between 26W and 30W and from 06N to 12N between 31W and 35W.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean has an axis extending
from 20N72W to 10N72W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. This wave
coincides with modest troughing in initial model 700 mb wind
fields. TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in
modest deep-layer moisture. There is no significant convection
currently associated with this wave, possibly due to convergent
upper-level winds in ridging to the south of Hurricane Jose.


The monsoon trough extends west from Senegal on the African coast
near 15N17W to 11N21W to low pres 1010 mb centered near 09N29W to
06N38W. The ITCZ continues from 06N38W to 07N46W to 06N54W. Aside
from the convection related to the tropical wave and surface low
over the eastern Atlantic, isolated showers and thunderstorms are
seen within 120 nm either side of a line from 05N35W to 04N45W to



Weak ridging extending westward from the Atlantic over the
northern Gulf is promoting a light to gentle wind regime over the
basin. No significant deep convection is present with upper-level
convergence in place over the Gulf to the east of a pronounced mid
to upper-level trough over Texas and Mexico. Very weak low
pressure just NW of the Yucatan Peninsula is dissipating. This
relatively tranquil pattern is expected to remain in place for the
next few days.


A tropical wave crosses the central Caribbean from northern
Colombia to the Dominican Republic. Please refer to the tropical
waves section above for details. A weak ridge extends from just
north of the Lesser Antilles over Hispaniola to the northwestern
Bahamas. Winds across much of the Caribbean remain in the gentle
to moderate range due to the weakened pressure gradient. These
winds will pick up to a fresh speeds to the east of the tropical
wave as it moves west.


A dry weather regime continues over the island as strong ridging
to the south of Hurricane Jose remains in place. Upper-level
cloudiness from the outflow of Jose continues to plume overhead.
Shower coverage should be isolated along the higher terrain during
daytime heating through the next few days.


Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, and the Tropical Waves section for
information on the tropical wave over the basin. A surface
trough has an axis extending from from 22N41W to 29N39W. Moderate
convection is found from 22N to 27N between 35W and 38W. This
trough should gradually lift northward but only maintain limited
deep convection. Finally, a stationary front crosses the
discussion area from 32N46W to 28N53W to 31N60W. Scattered
convection is present along and up to 150 nm SE of the front east
of 55W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of
ridging extending SW from a 1029 mb Azores high centered near
41N22W to 23N60W.

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