Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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686
AXNT20 KNHC 021110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 1N17W TO SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 45W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD BUT LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED TO ALONG 80W
COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC. THE SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE FAR E GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO RETREAT EASTWARD AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER TEXAS MOVES E INTO THE NW GULF WITH S TO SE SURFACE FLOW
REMAINING ACROSS THE BASIN. AREAS OF FOG ARE BEING REPORTED OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 89W INCLUDING THE TEXAS COAST...AND
OVER THE NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 86W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL ENTER THE NW
GULF THIS MORNING AND WILL REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO
MEXICO TONIGHT...FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE WED NIGHT AND FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THU NIGHT BEFORE MOVING SE OF THE AREA FRI. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE W OF THE FRONT IN BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AND THU
EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING. MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS DOMINATE MOST OF THE BASIN WITH FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED NIGHT AND IN
THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOTTING THE BASIN N OF 13N. THE 1016
MB LOW IN THE SW ATLC IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE TODAY DRAGGING THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH TO JUST N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE
LOW WILL BE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED. THE LOW WILL THEN
DISSIPATE EARLY THU WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN DRIFT WESTWARD THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT AND REMAIN N OF 19N SHIFTS E ACROSS
CUBA.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOISTURE TO
GENERATE POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
MORNING. THE 1016 MB LOW IN THE SW ATLC IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE
TUE DRAGGING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH TO JUST N OF
HISPANIOLA. THE LOW WILL BE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED AND
COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR WED EVENING THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W THU NIGHT AND FRI WHICH COULD
BRING MORE SHOWERS FOR THE ISLAND ON FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N74W TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO
32N45W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 31N51W 28N56W TO 29N61W TO
27N64W. A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N65W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 23N69W TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N74W.
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N61W TO 25N62W
GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 55W-63W. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N47W TO 26N47W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 26N48W TO 30N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISSIPATING WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
THIS MORNING WILL ENTER THE W ATLC THU EVENING AND WILL EXTEND
FROM 32N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI MORNING. THE 1016 MB
LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE TUE AND WED DRAGGING THE SURFACE
TROUGH S TO THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
THU. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN DRIFT W THU NIGHT AND FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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