Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 191805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 9N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 6N30W 6N40W TO 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 17W-28W AND FROM 4N-12N
BETWEEN 30W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH CENTERS OVER THE SE
CONUS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE GULF WITH NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN
THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT...INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SW AND SE GULF...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE PASSAGE OF A
FORMER COLD FRONT NOW ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE
SW N ATLC AND THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO ENHANCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES COVER MOST OF THE BASIN S OF 28N BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER-
LEVEL MOIST AIR STREAMING NE FROM THE E PACIFIC WATERS.
HOWEVER...DRY STABLE AIR AT THE LOWER-LEVELS SUPPORT STABILITY
AND FAIR WEATHER IN THIS REGION. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE SE CONUS REMAINS STATIONARY AND THEN DRIFTS NE FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS BEING ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW N ATLC SW
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THEN ALONG 21N80W 19N85W TO NE GUATEMALA
NEAR 15N88W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO BE ANALYZED ALONG 19N83W TO NORTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS
NEAR 15N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 81W. ON THE
SW BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COASTLINE FROM SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA TO CENTRAL PANAMA. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NW BASIN BY THU NIGHT TO FRI MORNING. SHOWERS
IN THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND AND COASTAL
WATERS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE SHALLOW MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THUS ENHANCING SOME
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 30N65W SW TO 25N74W TO NORTHERN CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N78W AND THEN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE MOISTURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN
100 NM EAST OF IT. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
ATLC EXTENDING SW TO 40W...THUS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ALONG
30N13W TO 21N22W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE TO 18N28W. SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE N OF 20N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH NEAR 32N44W. THE FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MERGES WITH IT TO DRIFT IT TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL BASIN SAT MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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