Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 151728

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1228 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.


Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient,
that exists between a strong surface ridge in the north Atlantic
Ocean, and lower surface pressures in northern South America,
will continue to support minimal gale-force winds near the coast
of Colombia, roughly from 11N to 13N between 74W and 77W, through
the week. The sea heights associated with the gale-force wind
conditions are forecast to range from 11 feet to 17 feet. Please
read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W, to 05N14W, to 01N19W. The ITCZ continues from 01N19W,
to 02S25W, and to 04S33W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers from 07N southward. Upper level SW wind
flow is to the SE of the line that passes through 32N09W 26N20W
17N50W 15N62W.



A surface ridge extends from Florida near 28N81W, to 26N89W in the
Gulf of Mexico, to 20N97W at the coast of Mexico.

Rainshowers are possible, in scattered-to-broken low level clouds,
from 25N southward from 90W westward. Mist/fog and haze are
possible also.

Moderate east-to-southeast return flow is expected across most of
the Gulf waters through Saturday. Locally dense fog across the
northern waters will develop tonight, and dissipate by late Friday
morning. A weak cold front will stall east-to-west across the
northern and northwestern waters on Saturday, and then retreat
northwestward on Sunday night into Monday. A thermal trough will
develop in the western Yucatan Peninsula during the afternoons,
drift westward across the eastern Bay of Campeche during the
overnight hours, and then dissipate in the southwest waters by
late each morning.


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low
level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals that
are listed for the period that ended at 15/1200 UTC...according
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.20 in Curacao, 0.03 in St. Thomas
in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and 0.02 in Guadeloupe, in Kingston in
Jamaica, and in San Juan in Puerto Rico.

Strong-to near gale-force trade winds are expected across the
south central and southwest Caribbean Sea through the weekend,
with minimal gale-force conditions along the northwest coast of
Colombia. Fresh-to-locally strong trade winds are forecast
elsewhere across the central Caribbean Sea, including the north
central passages. These strong conditions will spread eastward,
into the east Caribbean Sea and the tropical waters on Saturday
night, and continue through Tuesday.


A stationary front is along 32N35W to 30N50W, to a 1025 mb low
pressure center that is near 32N67W. Scattered-to-broken low
level clouds and possible rainshowers are to the N of the line
that passes through 32N28W to 26N50W, to 26N80W.

An upper level trough extends from 32N14W, to 23N27W, becoming a
shear axis to 16N47W, 16N56W, to 16N77W in the Caribbean Sea, to
the central part of the coast of Nicaragua.

An east-to-west oriented ridge along 29N will shift southward, to
be along 27N on Friday. The ridge will shift northward, to be along
29N, late in the upcoming weekend. A weak cold front will move
off the southeast United States on Sunday, and then dissipate
across the northwest waters through Monday night. Light-to-
gentle winds will prevail north of 25N, with moderate-to-fresh
winds expected south of 25N, except locally strong along the
northern coast of Hispaniola and in the northern approach to the
Windward Passage each evening.

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