Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 251719
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR 27N54W SUPPORTS GALE FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE FROM THE LOW CENTER.
SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA. THE GALE IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL 1200 UTC TUESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER
TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N17W TO 06N30W TO 04N43W...THEN A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N44W TO 02N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N E OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...ANCHORED
BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF...EXCEPT
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE SW GULF...FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE
AXIS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF THIS MORNING...SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 86W AND
92W. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORTS A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 13N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W OVER
THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A COLD FRONT...AND
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SUPPORTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACROSS THESE ISLANDS. OTHER PATCHES OF SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA
AND THE COASTS OF E HONDURAS...N NICARAGUA...AND THE COAST OF
PANAMA. GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES COVER THE CARIBBEAN TODAY
EXCEPT WITHIN 120 NM S OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...WHERE
WINDS ARE MODERATE AND SOUTHERLY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS COVER HISPANIOLA TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT NEARS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OUT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ONGOING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 60W SUPPORTS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH A 1003 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N61W. A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N59W AND EXTENDS TO 24N62W
TO 20N72W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N58W TO 19N65W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N57W TO 27N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 21N BETWEEN 45W AND 57W. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO THE SE OF THE
NORTHERN SURFACE TROUGH AS IT IS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING INTO A NEW
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 27N54W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A PAIR OF 1019
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS NEAR 26N37W AND 25N27W ANCHOR RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N26W TO 25N35W
SEPARATES THESE TWO HIGH CENTERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
180 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 27N...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 27N. THE DEVELOPING LOW CURRENTLY
NEAR 27N54W WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS UNTIL 1200 UTC
TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
OF THIS NEW LOW OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE AS THE LOW MOVES W TO NW
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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