836
AXNT20 KNHC 070023 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jul 07 2025

Corrected Atlantic Ocean section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: Latest Meteo-France High Seas Forecast
maintains a Gale Warning for the Canary Islands valid until
07/03Z. Seas in the area range from 8 to 10 ft. For more details,
please visit the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed on the
website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 24W from
near the Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving westward around
10 kt. This wave remains embedded within a deep moisture
envelope. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along
and near the southern part of the wave.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 39W from 04N
to 19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers
are possible from 03N to 10N between 36W and 41W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 55W south of
16N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are within 60 nm either side of the wave axis
from 05N to 08N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 81W south
of 19N to central Panama and to the eastern Pacific near 06N.
It is moving westward at about 15 kt. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are west of the wave axis from 14N to 19N,

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border
of Mauritania and Senegal, then curves southwestward through
12N24W and to 08N32W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to
09N38W, and continues to the west of a tropical near 09N41W
to just east of another tropical wave near 09N54W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 27W and
34W and from 07N to 11N between 16W and 19W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A trough is analyzed from northeast Florida southwestward to
across north-central Florida and extends southwestward across
central Florida and to the eastern Gulf reaching to near 27N87W.
A well pronounced upper-level low dropping southward as seen on
water vapor imagery is near 25N91W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are noted south of 26N east of 90W and just
offshore southwest of Louisiana. A weak 1018 mb high pressure
center is analyzed over the central Gulf at 27N91W. Its related
gradient is allowing for generally light to gentle winds across
the basin, except for moderate to fresh northeast to east winds
along and just offshore the the northern Yucatan Peninsula.
Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are over the central
and eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range,
except for slightly higher seas of 2 to 4 ft in the central Gulf
and over the central and eastern Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the aforementioned trough will persist across
the NE Gulf through this evening. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will continue near and south of the
trough through Mon. The weak high pressure will change little
through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east
winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula
each afternoon and evening through the forecast period as a
trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward over the
Bay of Campeche at night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the central and
western Atlantic and low pressure in Colombia continues to
support a broad area of fresh to strong trades over most of
the central section of the basin, and mostly fresh trades over
the western and northeast sections. Gentle to moderate trades
are elsewhere. Seas are in the range of 3 to 6 ft, except for
higher seas of 5 to 7 ft from 15N to 18N between 72W and 80W,
south of 15N between 68W and 72W, and even higher seas of 6 to 9
ft from 11N to 15N between 72W and 76W, where fresh to strong
trades are present.

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure will continue to
support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the
south- central Caribbean through Fri night. Moderate to fresh
winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean
while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will
prevail elsewhere, with the exception of fresh to strong east
winds in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, going into
the upcoming week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...Corrected

Please see the Special Features section for details on a
continuing Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France for the Canary
Islands.

A trough extends from near 29N64W to 25N70W. A mid to upper-level
trough is over this general area. This is helping to contribute
to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over
an area from 24N to 30N between 62W and 69W. Farther to the east,
another trough extends from near 29N41W to 22N40W. Latest
scatterometer satellite data passes show a northeast to east
wind shift across the trough. These winds are of gentle to
moderate speeds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh east winds
are to the east of the trough as also indicated by the
scatterometer satellite data passes. These winds cover an area
from 25N to 29N between 32W and 37W. Seas with these winds are 5
to 7 ft. Over the western part of the area, moderate to fresh
southerly winds are north of 26N between and 74W and 79W. Seas
with these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate east winds are
elsewhere along with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except for higher seas
of 5 to 6 ft from 17N to 25N between 34W and 53W where fresh
trades are present.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the northwest part
of the area due to a surface trough that extends from 31N79W to
inland central Florida near New Smyrna Beach.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh southerly winds
and moderate seas related to Tropical Depression Chantal, inland
North Carolina, are still affecting the waters offshore
northeast Florida. As Chantal continues to move away from the
forecast area, Atlantic ridging will build westward toward
Florida and the Bahamas. This pattern will support generally
gentle to moderate winds, except for fresh to locally strong
east to southeast winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola
going into the upcoming week.

$$
Aguirre