Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 220539

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1239 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

A 998 mb area of low pressure across the western North Atlc
extends a cold front into the discussion area near 32N53W. The
front continues SW to 24N60W. Near gale to gale force SW winds
are occurring N of 27N E of the front to 52W. The gale force
conditions are expected to move N of the area by 23/0600 UTC. See
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
03N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
03N18W to 01N26W to 01N34W to the Equator near 41W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is S of 04N between 19W-26W...and
from 04N-07N between 44W-48W.


A vigorous middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor
imagery over the lower Mississippi River valley and north-central
Gulf waters with the associated trough axis dipping southward
over the south-central Gulf waters to a base near 23N89W. The
troughing supports a broad area of surface low pressure focused on
a 1009 mb low centered across central Mississippi near 32N90W
with an occlusion extending to a triple point near 32N86W then a
cold front extending S-SW to 30N85W to 22N90W to 18N93W.
Scattered showers and widely scattered tstms are occurring N of
25N between 81W-87W largely enhanced by strong middle to upper
level diffluence. Otherwise...the western half of the basin is
under the influence of gentle to fresh NW winds and surface
ridging anchored across interior portions of Mexico with mostly
clear skies prevailing W of 90W. Looking ahead...the cold front
is forecast to move across Florida and into the SW North Atlc
waters by Thursday morning. The next cold front is forecast to
move off the Texas and Louisiana coast by Friday night into
early Saturday.

Overall the Caribbean basin remains under fairly tranquil
conditions this evening with the exception of the eastern waters.
An area of low pressure NE of the Leeward Islands centered near
19N60W extends a weak cold front to 15N61W to 14N66W. Low-level
moisture convergence within southerly winds focused along a
surface trough analyzed from 16N58W to 12N63W is generating
widely scattered showers from 12N-15N E of 62W. Otherwise...dry
and stable air aloft coupled with gentle to moderate northerly
winds are prevailing and expected to persist through Wednesday.
By Wednesday...a cold front is expected to move across the SE
Gulf of Mexico and reach the Yucatan Channel region and NW
Caribbean waters introducing another round of fresh to occasional
strong W-NW winds.

Isolated showers are expected overnight as persistent N-NE winds
will continue to feed Atlc moisture across northern portions of
the island that will result in these showers through Wednesday
afternoon. An approaching cold front from the west on Thursday
will increase cloudiness and probability of convective

A middle to upper level low is centered across the central North
Atlc near 33N57W that supports the Special Features 998 mb low
centered near 37N55W and the associated cold front producing the
near gale to gale force conditions. Scattered showers and tstms
are occurring E of the front N of 20N between 46W-54W. Farther
south...a mid-level shortwave trough in the vicinity of 19N59W
supports a weakening 1010 mb low centered NE of the Leeward
Islands near 19N60W. The associated cold front extends SW across
the central Lesser Antilles and into the south-central Caribbean
Sea. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from
14N-21N between 54W-60W. To the west...across much of the SW North
Atlc...weak surface ridging anchored by a 1025 mb high anchored
off the New England coast near 41N69W maintains gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds as an area of low pressure continues to develop
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As the low pressure moves
eastward through Wednesday night into Thursday...SE winds are
expected to increase W of 70W. Finally...the remainder of the
eastern Atlc is under the influence of another surface ridge
anchored by a 1029 mb high centered NE of the Azores near 41W24W.
The ridge axis extends S-SW from the high to 32N31N to 14N37W.

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