Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 191740

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.


A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis
from 14N47W to 02N43W, moving westward at 15 kt. This wave is
embedded in a low amplitude 700 mb trough as indicated in model
fields. SSMI total precipitable water imagery also shows a very
moist area around the wave. Isolated moderate convection is
west of the wave axis from 10N-13N between 47W-54W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis from
22N65W to 07N68W, moving westward at 25-30 kt. This wave is
embedded in a broad 700 mb trough as indicated in model fields,
and is accompanied by a modest surge of moisture. Isolated
moderate convection is east of the wave axis over the Leeward
Islands from 13N-17N between 60W-63W. Scattered moderate
convection is over the northern portion of the wave from 20N-25N
between 64W-73W.

A tropical wave is over Central America and the Eastern Pacific
with axis from 21N87W to 09N89W, moving westward at 10-15 kt.
This wave is embedded in 700 mb trough, and is in a surge of
deep moisture that covers the Eastern Pacific. Clusters of
scattered moderate to strong convection are east of the wave
axis over the W Caribbean, and Central America from 11N-17N
between 82W-85W.


The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east tropical
Atlantic near 17N16W and continues to a 1012 mb low near 16N20W
to 10N30W to 08N39W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave
near 03N44W and continues to the coast of South America near
04N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
south of the monsoon trough from 05N-13N between 15W-32W.



A surface ridge extends along 30N from N Florida to E Texas.
A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 23N91W to
17N92W. 10-20 kt winds are over the Gulf with strongest winds
over the central Gulf. The base of an upper level ridge is over
the Gulf of Mexico with easterly flow and considerable upper
level moisture. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are
over most of the Gulf to include the northern Gulf States,
Florida, W Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Expect in 24 hours
for the surface trough to move west with additional convection.
Also expect surface ridging to remain over the northern Gulf of


A tropical wave is over Central America and another wave is over
the eastern Caribbean. See above. 10-25 kt winds are over the
Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. An
upper level low is currently over the NW Caribbean near 18N84W
contributing to isolated moderate convection over Cuba, the NW
Caribbean, and Yucatan Peninsula. Expect over the next 24 hours
for the tropical waves to move west with convection.


Presently scattered showers are over southern Hispaniola. Expect
more showers and isolated thunderstorms with diurnal heating and
low-level moisture advection due to the tropical wave over the
next 24 hours.


A tropical waves is over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to
the tropical waves section for more details. Patches of
scattered moderate convection are over the western Atlantic west
of 65W to include the Bahamas due to a tropical wave and a
surface trough from 29N79W to 21N71W. A large 1031 mb high is
over the central Atlantic near 35N44W producing fair weather.
Expect the tropical wave and the monsoon trough to be the
dominate features in the tropical Atlantic over the next 24

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