Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 241730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE
WEST. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED
NOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF
74W. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA TO RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 15
FEET. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
2N33W WHERE IT BRIEFLY BREAKS DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH...THEN
CONTINUES FROM 2N35W TO 2N42W. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
8N34W TO 2N34W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N
TO 7N BETWEEN 26W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER N MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE GULF. FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IS
USHERING IN A COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS WITH NW WINDS RANGING FROM
10 KT ALONG THE TX COAST...TO AROUND 25 KT JUST NW OF A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEAR 31N81W...ACROSS FL AND
INTO THE GULF NEAR 27N82W TO NEAR CANCUN AT 21N87W AND THEN
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ALSO
EXTENDS ACROSS FL AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W AND THEN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. A BROKEN
BAND OF SHOWERS IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
SE WINDS TO 25 KT ARE SE OF THE TROUGH. W WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT
ARE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE GULF BASIN AND WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE GULF ON SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE NW AND EXTENDS
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO CANCUN. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH CROSSES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE TRADEWINDS
SHIFT TO THE SW TO 10 TO 15 KT WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...THEN W AROUND 20 KT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT...THEN NW AT 15 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OTHER
ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDES SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHOWERS
OVER PUERTO RICO...PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES
TO EXTEND FROM N COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA TO W CUBA AND OVER THE W
ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E TO W
CUBA TO HONDURAS WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY.
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER COVERAGE TO THE
ISLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS LOW TO 31N81W AND ACROSS FL NEAR 28N82W.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N79W AND ACROSS FL NEAR
27N81W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD
FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. S TO SW WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. FARTHER EAST...A UPPER TROUGH ALONG 46W
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO 32N44W TO
26W60W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO
27N66W AND THEN TO A WARM FRONT TO 31N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO
22N51W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MID
ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 160
E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS N OF 23N. A STATIONARY 1036 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 41N19W WHICH SUPPORTS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E TO 30N60W TO W CUBA. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
DISSIPATE WITH A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC
FROM THE SE US ON MONDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



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