Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 041101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning...The cold front currently in the west
Atlantic will move to 32N47W along 25N65W to 24N77W with
southwest gale force winds north of 30N east of the front to 42W
starting this morning at 04/1200 UTC. These winds will shift
east with the front through Monday morning at 05/1200 UTC.
Please see the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 8N12W to 4N20W where it transitions to the ITCZ
and continues along 3N27W 4N37W 4N43W to South America near
2N51W. Small clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are within 60 nm of a line from 00N1W to 3N10W. Large
clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are
from 4N-8N between 10W-15W and from the equator to 9N between
26W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper ridge dominates the Gulf again tonight anchored in
the Caribbean giving the Gulf southwest to west flow aloft. A
deep layered trough over the western CONUS is digging south to
over western Mexico further amplifying the upper ridge. A
stationary front extends across northeast Mexico into the Gulf
near 24N97W along 27N95W to inland over Louisiana near 30N92W
then east to the Mississippi Delta. Scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms are west of the front to
inland over Texas and Louisiana. The front will meander over the
northwest Gulf through tonight. A cold front will move across
the Gulf Monday and Tuesday followed by fresh to strong winds
through Monday night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge is anchored over western Panama dominating the
Caribbean again this morning. Clusters of numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm of a line from Colombia
near 11N74W along 15N80W to 20N85W with scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms from 18N-20N between 75W-80W.
This is leaving the remainder of the Caribbean with clear skies
this morning. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will support
fresh to locally strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia
and northwest Venezuela through mid week. Similar winds are
expected in the west Caribbean Monday night through Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Some isolated showers remain over the southwest portion of the
island this morning. Lingering moisture and easterly trade winds
could continue to produce isolated showers across the island
through the tonight with some possible clearing on Monday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends over the west
Atlantic. The surface ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high over Ohio
covers the west Atlantic west of 65W. An upper trough over the
central Atlantic is supporting a cold front that extends through
32N47W along 28N56W to 26N62W where it begins to dissipate to
25N73W then continues to dissipate as a stationary front across
the Bahama Islands to 24N80W in the Straits of Florida.
Scattered showers are within 90/120 nm east of the front north
of 30N. A weak surface trough is south of the front extending
from 26N58W to 23N62W moving east with a second surface trough
from 23N65W to just north of the Mona Passage near 19N67W moving
west. Scattered showers possible isolated thunderstorms are
within 90 nm east of both troughs. A surface ridge covers the
central and eastern Atlantic north of 20N anchored by a 1018 mb
high near 23N33W. A surface trough is south of the surface ridge
extending from 18N51W to near 11N52W. This surface trough is
beneath the upper trough that covers the central Atlantic with
an east/west upper ridge to the east. The upper ridge is
providing difflunce aloft to generate clusters of scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 8N-20N between
35W-46W. The west Atlantic cold front will reach from 32N43W
along 24N65W to 24N80W by late today with southwest gale force
winds east of the front through Monday morning. See Special
Features above.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW


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