Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 242355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING AND WILL PULSE AGAIN THU
NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE FAR E ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR WITH A
DEVELOPING GALE IN THE AREAS OF TARFAYA AND CANARIAS. NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE AREA OF MADIERA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...
A GALE WARING WILL GO INTO EFFECT WED EVENING FOR THE AREA OF
THE W ATLC N OF 29N BETWEEN 77W AND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
FROM 31N80W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE. THE
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 6N10W ALONG 5N13W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N21W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N
TO S THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 12W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO THE
NW ATLC AND IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND
FAR N GULF. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF
WATERS THIS EVENING. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF NEAR CEDAR KEY
ALONG 26N87W 25N92W TO 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 86W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N AND W OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH OVER E TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER TONIGHT THEN WILL LIFT
NW AS A WARM FRONT WED MORNING AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE LOW WILL DRAG THE FRONT TO THE E-
SE AS A COLD FRONT THE REMAINDER OF WED THROUGH WED NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE SE GULF THU MORNING WHERE IT WILL
LINGER THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ALSO COVERING THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-18N. THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS
THE W ATLC IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT SE WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
EASTERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER THE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WILL
PULSE TO GALE FORCE AGAIN TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT. ELSEWHERE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INCREASING TO FRESH
TO STRONG FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EASTWARD THU AND FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 32N63W TO 30N67W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
29N71W THEN CONTINUES NW AS A WARM FRONT TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR
32N78W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THIS LOW ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS IS ADVECTING UPPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N W OF 70W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N
BETWEEN 55W-61W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF
WESTERN SAHARA THAT WILL SPREAD S TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TONIGHT.
THE W ATLC 1012 MB LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC
TONIGHT THEN WILL REACH FROM 32N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
LATE TUE NIGHT AND FROM 32N62W TO 27N77W WED AFTERNOON WHERE IT
WILL STALL THEN DISSIPATE. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
N FLORIDA AND OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST WED NIGHT. GALE FORCE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING. THE LOW WILL DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS INTO
THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N74W TO S FLORIDA BY THU EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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