Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 161756

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

A 1000 mb low is centered 33N51W with the associated cold front
extending SW from the low to 27N63W. The low is supported aloft by
an upper level trough with axis extending from 38N53W to 31N57W.
Near gale to gale force S-SW winds are expected for the next 18
hours generally N of 28N between the front and 48W. An early
morning scatterometer pass indicated this wind field which extends
north of the area to 34N/35N. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
08N28W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N28W to 08N38W to 06N50W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N-08N between the Prime Meridian and 17W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-12N between 17W-


NW flow aloft prevails over the Gulf basin this afternoon as a
mid-level shortwave trough progresses eastward over the far
eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula. Mostly stable conditions are
noted at the surface as a ridge axis extends from across the SE
CONUS to the SW Gulf and east-central Mexico near 22N97W. Skies
are mostly clear with the exception of a few possible isolated
showers within 90 nm either side of a surface trough analyzed
from 19N92W to 23N97W. Otherwise...gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds are forecast through Friday. The next cold
front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by
late Saturday into Saturday night. Fresh to strong N-NE winds will
follow in wake of the front as it sweeps southeastward.

A broad area of lower pressure across the basin continues to be
focused on a 1008 mb low centered SW of Hispaniola near 17N75W. A
surface trough extends SW from the low to near 10N81W supporting
scattered showers and strong tstms from 09N-16N between 70W-
83W...and from 16N-21N between 59W-74W. Otherwise...moderate to
occasional fresh northerly winds are noted across the western
Caribbean waters generally W of 77W...while trade wind flow E of
the surface troughing will continue to be disrupted outside of
convection...gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail
through the upcoming weekend. The low is expected to remain nearly
stationary S-SW of Hispaniola early Monday.

Scattered showers and scattered strong tstms are expected to
persist across the island the next few days as deep moisture
advects NE over the region due to an upper trough to the NW over
the SE Gulf of Mexico. Convection will likely be heaviest in the
afternoon and evening hours during maximum heating. Localized
flooding and life-threatening mud slides are also possible during
this time.

Aside from the special features section above highlighting the
area of low pressure analyzed near 33N51W...the SW North Atlc is
under the influence of moderate to occasional fresh N-NE winds
with a dissipating cold front extending into the discussion area
near 32N75W to the Florida coast near 27N80W. Isolated showers are
occurring across the NW Bahamas and Florida Straits...and along
the Florida east coast S of 29N. Farther east...a surface trough
extends SW from the Special Features cold front near 31N54W to
23N70W and into the 1008 mb low centered in the Caribbean Sea near
17N75W. Scattered showers and widely scattered tstms are occurring
from 18N-26N between 58W-73W...and from 26N-32N between 40W-58W.
The frontal troughing is expected to persist across the central
Atlc through Saturday night as ridging builds in off the SE CONUS
and into the SW North Atlc. Finally...mostly tranquil conditions
are noted across the eastern Atlc...however a surface trough
extends from a 1012 mb low centered in the vicinity of the Azores
near 37N24W and is supporting widely scattered showers N of 27N
between 18W-23W.

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