Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 172351

805 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/Monsoon Trough...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
05N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N20W to 04N25W to 05N24W to 01N50W. Isolated moderate
convection is N of 03N between the Prime Meridian and 13W...and
within 90 nm either side of a line from 07N34W to 03N47w.


Gulf of Mexico...
A mid-level shortwave trough noted on water vapor imagery over
the NE Gulf coupled with low-level moisture convergence
associated with a surface trough analyzed from 29N84W to 28N87W
is supporting an area of scattered to numerous showers and tstms
N of 26N E of 89W...including much of the Florida Peninsula. The
remainder of the basin is generally convection-free within light
to gentle E-SE winds. A stationary front extends across
Louisiana W-SW to Galveston Bay to near 29N100W. Isolated
showers and tstms are occurring in the vicinity of 29N95W. The
front is forecast to remain along the coastal plain and near-
shore dissipating gradually through Thursday. Otherwise...
moderate to occasional fresh E-SE return flow is expected across
western portions of the basin through Friday.

Caribbean Sea...
A relatively strong surface ridge prevails across the central
North Atlc anchored by a 1033 mb high centered near 36N34W. The
associated ridge axis extends from the high southwest to the NE
Caribbean producing a strengthened pressure gradient across the
eastern and central portion of the basin resulting in strong to
near gale trades generally S of 18N between 68W and 79W.
Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades are occurring elsewhere
across portions of the eastern and far western Caribbean. Most
of the convection this evening is confined across portions of
Central America and the adjacent coastal waters of Nicaragua...
Costa Rica...and Panama. It is likely the close proximity of the
Monsoon Trough along 09N is contributing to scattered strong
tstms across western Panama this evening.

Fair weather prevails across the island as an upper-level ridge
and drier NW flow aloft prevails this evening. Moderate to fresh
breeze conditions are expected across the adjacent coastal
waters of the Caribbean Sea and Atlc Ocean.

Atlantic Ocean...
A mid-level shortwave trough is moving E-NE over the NE Gulf of
Mexico and the Florida Peninsula this evening supporting
scattered showers and tstms across the SW North Atlc N of 25N W
of 77W. Farther east...a stationary front extends along 30N/31N
between 58W and 70W with a surface trough extending W-SW from
the front near 30N65W to 28N74W. Isolated showers are occurring
within 60 nm either side of the surface trough axis.
Otherwise...a broad area of high pressure prevails across the
remainder of the central and eastern Atlc anchored on a 1033 mb
high centered near 36N34W with mostly fair weather conditions

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