Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 151803

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.


At 15/1500 UTC, the center of Tropical Storm Jose is around 420
nm SW of Bermuda near 26.5N 69.4W, moving NW at 8 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate convection
is present from 25N to 27N between 68W and 70W. Scattered moderate
convection and tstms are elsewhere from 23N to 30N between 66W
and 72W. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Please
read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

At 15/1500 UTC, the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E is
around 370 nm SW of the Cape Verde Islands near 11.4N 28.3, moving
WNW at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 06N to 13N between
26W and 38W. The depression is forecast to become a tropical
storm later today. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
14N42W to 04N44W, moving W at 20-25 kt. The wave is in a region
of low to moderate vertical wind shear, deep-layer moisture and is
underneath a diffluent environment aloft. However, some dry air
intrusion is suggested in the wave WNW environment by the
TPW/LPW imagery. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N
to 15N between 38W and 51W. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3 days. There is a
medium chance for this system to become a tropical cyclone.


A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic to the east of the
Lesser Antilles with axis extending from 22N57W to 11N59W, moving
W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a region of moderate to strong
vertical wind shear, and dry air is present in most of the wave
environment as indicated by TPW/LPW imagery. Shallow moisture and
middle level diffluent flow in the SE environment of the wave
support scattered moderate convection from 14N to 18N between 55W
and 59W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 19N75W to 10N77W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a region
of low vertical wind shear, however water vapor imagery show this
wave is under dry subsident air, which is limiting the convection
to isolated showers within 60 nm of the wave axis.


The monsoon trough extends west from the African coast near 12N17W
to 13N22W. The ITCZ begins near 09N46W and continues to 08N60W.
Aside from the convection related to T.D. Fourteen and the two tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 14N between
33W and 40W.



A middle to upper level trough prevails across the western half
of the Gulf with a base reaching SSW to the Bay of Campeche.
This trough aloft support a surface trough that extends from
27N88W to 18N94W. Diffluent flow to the E of the upper trough
along with moisture advection from the Caribbean by SSE flow
continue to support scattered heavy showers and tstms in the NE
basin N of 23N between 84W and 91W. Strong dry air subsidence W
of 90W support clear skies. Surface ridging is forecast to
establish late Saturday through early next week. Light to
moderate SSE flow is forecast during that period.


A tropical wave continue to move across the central Caribbean
waters, however not significant convection is associated with it
due to dry subsident air in this region. Please refer to the
tropical waves section above for details. The eastern extension
of the monsoon trough reaches the NW coast of Colombia and support
numerous heavy showers and isolated tstms in the SW basin S of
11N between 77W and 81W. Scattered showers and tstms are elsewhere
S of 13N. Otherwise, moist outflow from Tropical Storm Jose
located in the SW Atlc support scattered showers and tstms in the
NE Caribbean N of 14N between 64W and 72W, including Puerto Rico
where isolated showers and tstms are noted. Winds across much of
the Caribbean remain in the gentle to moderate range due to the
weak pressure gradient left by T.S. Jose. These winds will pick
up to fresh speeds from east to west later today as a tropical
wave enter the basin.


Isolated showers and tstms are affecting mainly southern
Hispaniola while moist outflow from Tropical Storm Jose located
in the SW Atlc support scattered showers and tstms over the Island
adjacent waters N of 14N between 67W and 73W. Showers and tstms
will continue through late Sunday as T.S. Jose moves NW over the W
Atlc waters.


Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on Tropical Storm Jose, T.D. Fourteen, and a tropical
wave over the central Atlc with potential to become a tropical
cyclone the next two days. Otherwise, a dissipating stationary front
curves SW from 30N40W to 23N54W. The remainder of the basin
remains under the influence of a surface ridge. The front is
forecast to dissipate tonight.

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