Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 102314

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
614 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
11N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
11N19W to 09N25W to 10N37W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 01N-09N between 06W-12W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 21W-27W...and
from 10N-14N between 31W-37W.


Water vapor imagery indicates broad troughing over the basin this
evening within relatively dry air aloft. The trough axis extends
from over the Florida peninsula SW to a base over southern Mexico
near the Chivela Pass. While the stronger middle to upper level
dynamics remain in the SW North Atlc...a lingering stationary
front meanders from the central Florida peninsula near 27N81W to
25N90W and into a weak 1016 mb low. The front continues S-SE from
the low to the southern Mexico coast near 19N95W. As a stable
environment is noted aloft...low-level moisture and possible
isolated showers are within 90 nm either side of the front and
generally W of 95W...including interior portions of eastern
Mexico. Overall moderate to fresh NE winds prevail with the
exception of N-NW winds W of the low pressure center and front
extending southward. The front is forecast to gradually weaken and
become diffuse through Sunday.

Generally broad lower pressure is noted across much of the
Caribbean this evening focused on a 1007 mb low centered near
15N79W in the western waters. A surface trough extends N-NE from
the low to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Water vapor imagery
indicates the surface low and troughing is supported aloft by
mid-level energy stretching from east of Jamaica near 18N76W to
the offshore waters of Nicaragua near 14N82W. In addition...a
favorable divergent environment remains over the central
Caribbean...including the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. As a
result...scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring
primarily between 68W-79W...however a few isolated showers and
tstms are occurring across the NW Caribbean and across Panama and
Costa Rica generally S of 10N. This synoptic pattern will be slow
to modify through Monday as the upper level troughing over the
Gulf of Mexico and SW North Atlc will be slow to weaken into early
next week. Otherwise...moderate to occasional fresh trades E of
75W will persist.

Scattered showers and isolated tstms continue across the island
this evening as the region remains in a favorable middle to upper
level divergent environment within generally southwesterly flow
aloft. Upper level troughing is expected to persist to the NW over
the SE Gulf of Mexico and SW North Atlc through the weekend with
persistent convection expected across the island...adjacent
coastal waters...and much of the central Caribbean Sea. Potential
hazards of localized flooding and life-threatening mud slides
are possible...especially if stronger convection develops during
peak daytime heating and instability through the weekend.

A cold front extends across the SW North Atlc from 32N71W SW to
the Florida coast near 28N80W where it becomes stationary into the
Gulf of Mexico. A pre-frontal surface trough is analyzed to the SE
of the front from the SE Bahamas near 23N73W to 28N70W. While only
a few isolated showers are possible in association with the cold
front...low-level moisture convergence in the vicinity of the
surface trough and a favorable divergent environment aloft are
generating scattered showers and isolated tstms from 19N-28N
between 64W-76W. Additional convection is occurring from 28N-34N
between 59W-66W. To the east...another surface trough extends
from 19N50W to 29N49W supported aloft by an upper level low
centered near 23N48W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are
noted primarily E of the surface trough axis from 19N-27N between
42W-49W. Elsewhere...the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored by a 1039 mb high centered NE of the Azores
near 44N19W.

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