Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 150604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 16/0000 UTC,
consists of: the persistence or threat of a S or SW near gale or
gale, in IRVING.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through Liberia near 06N10W to 06N15W.
A surface trough curves through 22W/23W from 06N southward. The
ITCZ continues from the equator along 24W, to 01N31W, 2N37W,
and 01N42W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 05N southward between 30W and 52W.
Scattered moderate to strong from 05N southward from 09W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving from Mexico, into
Texas, and then across the SE U.S.A. This wind flow is pushing
high level moisture into the Gulf of Mexico, to the west of the
line 30N87W 27N90W 18N94W.

SE wind flow from 350 mb to 800 mb is moving through the Gulf of
Mexico, in an area of comparatively drier air in subsidence.
The SE wind flow and drier air are to the east of the high level
moisture that is moving through the western sections of the Gulf
of Mexico.

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the
west central Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read
the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KVAF, KEMK, KHQI, KATP, and KEIR.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Port Lavaca. IFR in Palacios. MVFR in Victoria.
LIFR in Angleton/Lake Jackson. IFR in Bay City and Galveston.
MVFR in Beaumont/Port Arthur. LIFR from Pearland to Houston Hobby
Airport and to Ellington Field in Houston. IFR in Sugar Land and
Tomball. MVFR in Conroe. LOUISIANA: LIFR in Galliano, Port
Fourchon, and in Boothville, around the NE corner of Lake
Pontchartrain. LIFR/IFR around the SE corner of Lake
Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in the southernmost coastal
plains. ALABAMA: LIFR in Gulf Shores. from LIFR to MVFR in the
Mobile metropolitan area. FLORIDA: LIFR at the NAS Pensacola.
IFR in the SE sections of the Panama City metropolitan area.
LIFR at the Tampa Executive Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow curves anticyclonically, from Central
America and South America, into the Caribbean Sea, from 14N
southward.

NE wind flow, from 350 mb to 800 mb, covers the Caribbean Sea
from 14N northward from 75W eastward.

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area
that is from 14N northward from 75W westward.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence, that is apparent in water
vapor imagery, spans the Caribbean Sea.

24-HOUR rainfall amounts in inches for the period ending at
15/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.13 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving
across Hispaniola. The wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is from the
NE. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water
vapor imagery, across the entire area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling at
1600 feet. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: VFR. light rain of the last
few hours has ended. MVFR conditions for ceiling at 1400 feet have
become VFR for the moment. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.
earlier light rainshower from the last observation has ended for
the moment. earlier MVFR ceiling at 1600 feet now VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area, during most of day one, becoming W wind as
the approaching trough is in the Windward Passage. The trough
moves across Hispaniola during day two, bringing nothing but NW
wind flow with it for the whole day. The GFS MODEL forecast for
500 MB shows that anticyclonic wind flow will move across the
area during day one, with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola ridge.
Day two will consist of NORTHERLY wind flow, with Hispaniola being
to the east of an eventual Gulf of Mexico anticyclonic circulation
center. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE-to-E wind
flow will move across Hispaniola, with a Florida/Bahamas-to-
Hispaniola ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N39W to 27N42W 19N48W and
16N60W. A surface trough extends from a 1012 mb low pressure
center that is near 32N37W, to 26N39W, to a 1014 mb low pressure
center that is near 22N46W. A surface trough is along 18N45W
14N48W 09N50W. Convective precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds are to the east of 08N58W 16N50W 25N45W beyond
32N38W, within 400 nm to the east of the line on the northern
end, and within 1000 nm to the east of the line on the southern
end. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 24N
northward in the area of cloudiness. isolated moderate elsewhere
in the area of cloudiness.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean,
the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico from 15N northward from
60W westward.

A surface ridge is to the east of the 1011 mb low pressure
center/trough/1014 mb low pressure center system, along 09N35W
18N39W 27N24W beyond 32N22W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT


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