Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 131202

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
702 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 04N24W. The ITCZ continues from 04N24W to
01N32W to 01N40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 2N-9N
between 20W-30W.



A ridge dominates the Gulf region producing moderate to locally
fresh northerly winds. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted.
Reinforcing cold air will move through the eastern Gulf today. The
ridge will maintain moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the Gulf
through Tue. Another cold front will cross the Gulf waters Tue
night through Wed night.


A cold front extends from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras
followed by fresh to strong northerly winds. The front will push
slowly SE, and is forecast to stall from E Cuba to Costa Rica
tonight. Fresh to locally strong N winds are expected behind the
front through tonight, increasing to 25-30 kt just off the coast
of Nicaragua on Sun. Strong winds will pulse near the NW Colombia
coast each night. Large swell will affect the waters E of the
Lesser Antilles through Tue.


Isolated to scattered passing showers are expected across the
island today under the influence of a ridge.


A cold front extends from 31N79W across southern Florida and
western Cuba. Isolated to scattered showers are along the frontal
boundary. Reinforcing cold air will push the front a little
farther SE to extend from 31N65W to the Windward Passage by Mon
evening before the front weakens. Strong high pressure of 1040 mb
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. This system will
shift eastward today. Another cold front crosses between the
Madeira and the Canary Islands to near 28N30W where it becomes a
weakening stationary front to near 23N55W. The front will continue
to dissipate across the forecast waters.

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