Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 201017
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N33W TO 8N37W MOVING W 15 KT.
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE WELL.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 33W-40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 13N57W TO
5N58W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N72W
TO 10N73W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 11N20W TO 9N33W TO 6N44W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 6N44W AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N54W.
IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 18W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM LAKE CHARLES
LOUISIANA TO GALVESTON TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OFF
THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 86W-92W. 10-15 KT SE
TO S SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N99W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO N FLORIDA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT CONTINUED
MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF...FLORIDA...AND
CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA... FROM
18N-22N BETWEEN 68W-80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER TRINIDAD AND
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 16N94W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N72W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN
WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH
CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE N BAHAMAS FROM 27N79W TO CUBA
AT 22N79W. A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 36N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N54W TO 26N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE BAHAMAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 74W-79W. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N61W ENHANCING
SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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